|
FEATURE
CALLS
|
|
Malaysia | AirAsia Bhd
U/G to BUY on
three anchors
Mohshin Aziz
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.16
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.50
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U/G to BUY on
three anchors
|
|
We upgrade AirAsia to BUY after considering three factors.
First, we incorporate the benefit of new capital injection from the
issuance of 559m of new AirAsia shares to Tune Live Sdn Bhd. Second, we
tweak up our FY16-18 net profit forecasts by +1.6%, +3.8% and +4.1%
respectively on lower interest payments. Third, we switch to global
peer average PER as the valuation metric (previously 1x P/BV) as many
risk factors have abated. Our new TP is MYR2.50 (from MYR1.80) pegged
to 10.8x FY16.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
5,415.7
|
6,299.1
|
6,129.6
|
6,603.2
|
|
EBITDAR
|
1,769.1
|
2,617.4
|
2,684.3
|
2,631.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
432.9
|
278.7
|
769.1
|
818.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
15.6
|
10.0
|
23.0
|
24.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(22.2)
|
(35.7)
|
129.8
|
6.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
13.9
|
21.6
|
9.4
|
8.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
9.1
|
6.2
|
14.7
|
12.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.3
|
1.3
|
3.5
|
3.7
|
|
EV/EBITDAR (x)
|
10.7
|
5.3
|
6.0
|
5.8
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
249.9
|
228.9
|
146.4
|
123.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.58
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Allaying
Petrobras’ PLSV concerns
|
|
Though the market is likely to be concerned over
Upstream’s article on Petrobras’ move to renegotiate contracts for
PLSVs in Brazil, the situation is less hostile than expected, as we had
highlighted last month. The Petrobras job accounts for 6-8% to SAKP’s
earnings p.a.. That aside, unlocking and monetising its gas reserve is
high on SAKP’s agenda, a major catalyst not factored in by the market
yet. Our unchanged SOP-based MYR2.00 TP offers a 27% upside.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jan (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
9,943.0
|
10,184.0
|
9,756.8
|
10,367.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
3,120.5
|
3,088.6
|
3,017.0
|
3,071.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,216.7
|
1,009.4
|
840.7
|
942.7
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
20.3
|
16.9
|
14.1
|
15.8
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
13.6
|
(16.8)
|
(16.7)
|
12.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.3
|
1.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
7.8
|
9.3
|
11.2
|
10.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.8
|
0.9
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
11.0
|
8.3
|
6.7
|
7.0
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.0
|
2.8
|
2.3
|
2.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
10.2
|
8.9
|
8.2
|
7.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
131.0
|
134.2
|
117.5
|
99.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.47
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.80
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Secures
financing for Peterborough’s WTE project
|
|
Securing £35m financing from Export-Import Bank of
Malaysia (Exim Bank) for its Peterborough’s waste-to-energy (WTE)
project is a key catalyst. We expect full financial closure of the
remaining £65m soon. Total project cost is £140m, of which £40m is for
land acquisition. Our BUY call and MYR0.80 TP, based on 0.4x EV/
backlog, exclude any contributions from RE projects.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,865.1
|
1,641.3
|
1,830.7
|
2,170.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
207.9
|
208.4
|
210.1
|
254.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
36.8
|
45.7
|
105.5
|
140.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
5.6
|
7.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
61.2
|
3.4
|
131.0
|
32.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
19.7
|
19.0
|
8.2
|
6.2
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
3.8
|
4.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
2.4
|
3.1
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.3
|
7.0
|
6.0
|
4.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
27.1
|
19.1
|
14.7
|
9.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current account surplus was sustained but narrowed in
1Q 2016 on smaller trade surplus and wider services trade deficit
although income account deficit narrowed. Financial account surplus
was also sustained on net inflows of both portfolio and direct investments.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In line with our
estimate
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Q 2016 real GDP growth slowed for the fourth
consecutive quarter to +4.2% YoY (4Q 2015: +4.5% YoY), in line with
our +4.1% YoY estimate. No change in our full-year growth forecast
i.e. +4.3% (2015: +5.0%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
May turbulence
will persist
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The FBM KLCI tumbled 21.10 points WoW to close at
1,628.26 due foreign selling following the MSCI Index rebalancing
exercise. The weekly volume rose from 1.62b to 2.04b shares.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.K: Home prices rise in May as landlord surge leaves
property famine. U.K. house prices rebounded after investors rushed to
beat a new tax introduced last month left behind a shortage of homes for
sale, according to Rightmove. Asking prices increased 0.4% to an average
GBP 308,151 (USD 442,000), the property website operator said. Prices for
properties traditionally sought by first-time buyers surged 6.2%. In
London, asking prices fell 0.3%, according to Rightmove. With the average
price in the capital now more than GBP 640,000, it said many first-time
buyers seeking more affordable homes are being driven out of the capital.
(Source: Bloomberg)
China: Economy grinds down a gear as heavy industry drags.
China’s economy resumed its grind toward slower growth in April, weighed
down by overcapacity industries such as steel and coal. Industrial
production climbed 6% YoY in April, down from 6.8% YoY in March. Retail
sales also missed analyst forecasts, rising 10.1% YoY, while fixed-asset
investment increased 10.5% YoY in the January-April period versus
economists’ expectation for 11% YoY. (Source: Bloomberg)
China: April slowdown shows debt addiction will be tough
to shake. China’s run of disappointing April data underscore the bind
facing policy makers seeking to cut capacity from the worst-performing
sectors and curb credit excesses in recovering ones without stalling the
economy. Bloomberg’s monthly gross domestic product tracker shows growth
slowed to 6.88% in April, from 7.11% in March. (Source: Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Malaysia:
Aviation: Raya Airways breaks duopoly at KLIA. Raya
Airways Sdn Bhd, formerly Transmile Air Services Sdn Bhd, will soon break
the duopoly and get a slice of the action in the provision of cargo
terminal and ground-handling services at KLIA. The cargo is partnering
with one of the world’s leading ground-handling firms for the venture.
Its partnership with the global Asian company would provide it with the
leverage to sustain competition. A sum of MYR100m is part of the USD180m
(MYR722m) capex Raya Airways would raise through internal funding and
bank borrowings to turn around the air freighter, which include
re-fleeting. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Apex Healthcare: Aims for more international business. The
pharmaceutical products maker and distributor is aiming to have their
international markets’ contribution account for more than 50% of the
group’s revenue. Currently, 65% of the group’s revenue comes from
Malaysia, and the rest from 13 export markets, the main ones being
Singapore, Hong Kong and Myanmar. The group will also look at other new
contries in Indo-China or Southeast Asia, and African south continent.
(Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
Tien Wah: To diversify, mixed commercial project proposed.
Printing firm, Tien Wah Press Holdings diversification strategy involves
the proposed redevelopment plan of its factory site along Jalan Semangat
in Petaling Jaya into a mixed-use commercial project. In February, Tien
Wah had proposed to undertake a renounceable rights issue of 48.25
million new shares at an issue price of MYR1 per rights share on the
basis of one for every two existing shares.The rationale for the cash
call was to expand production facilities in Indonesia and the Middle
East, and repayment of bank borrowings. The proposed rights issue is
expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2016. Tien Wah has also
incorporated a new unit, Alliance Print Technologies FZE, in Dubai in
line with its long-term strategic plan and to gain a footprint in the
Middle-East market. (Source: The Star)
TDM: To leverage on healthcare operations. The smallish
plantation player is also involved in the healthcare business. The
company, which is based in Terengganu, has been involved in the
healthcare sector since its listing and is eyeing further growth from
this segment, moving forward. TDM will open the new 130-bed Kuala
Terengganu Specialist Hospital (KTS) in October 2016. The new KTS
includes five operating theatres, five delivery rooms, one laboratory, a
12-bed intensive care unit (ICU), one 19-bed neonatal ICU and 25
specialist clinics. With the opening of the KTS hospital and capacity
expansion in their other hospitals, TDM will see an increase in its
overall bedcount to 427 by the end of the year from 297 beds presently.
(Source: The Star)
|
|
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.