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Share
Price:
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MYR4.14
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Target
Price:
|
MYR3.80
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Recommendation:
|
Sell
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Vulnerable to
competition
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Sequentially weaker 4QFY3/16 earnings was within our
expectation but below street’s as earnings was affected by
greater-than-expected ASP competition. In our view, Hartalega is most
susceptible to the intense competition due to its product and
customer-concentration profile. We advocate investors to avoid the
stock until the competition subsides. Maintain SELL and TP of MYR3.80
(21x 2017 PER).
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FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY15A
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FY16A
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FY17E
|
FY18E
|
Revenue
|
1,146.0
|
1,489.3
|
1,666.2
|
1,809.7
|
EBITDA
|
321.6
|
387.1
|
431.8
|
472.8
|
Core net profit
|
209.7
|
258.0
|
277.4
|
301.4
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
13.4
|
15.6
|
16.7
|
18.2
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(15.1)
|
16.5
|
7.5
|
8.6
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.5
|
9.0
|
8.5
|
9.2
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
31.0
|
26.6
|
24.7
|
22.8
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P/BV (x)
|
5.1
|
4.5
|
4.2
|
3.8
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.6
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
2.2
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ROAE (%)
|
19.0
|
18.6
|
17.7
|
17.7
|
ROAA (%)
|
16.4
|
15.1
|
13.2
|
12.8
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
20.7
|
21.0
|
16.5
|
15.2
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
10.9
|
19.4
|
21.4
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Share
Price:
|
MYR1.46
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.33
|
Recommendation:
|
Sell
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Withdraws RSPO
certification
|
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FGV confirmed a press report that it has voluntarily
suspended its RSPO certification in Malaysia. Although FGV is a big
supplier of certificated sustainable palm oil (CSPO), the CSPO premium
received is small relative to its revenue base. But against its small
earnings base, the foregone CSPO premium could be material. Pending
details, we are keeping our forecasts unchanged. Maintain SELL &
MYR1.33 TP on 1x historical PNTA.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
16,434.3
|
15,669.7
|
15,737.5
|
16,369.9
|
EBITDA
|
1,293.9
|
957.4
|
990.7
|
1,194.2
|
Core net profit
|
95.7
|
(171.8)
|
141.4
|
252.2
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.6
|
(4.7)
|
3.9
|
6.9
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
545.6
|
nm
|
nm
|
78.3
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
4.0
|
2.3
|
4.1
|
Core P/E (x)
|
55.6
|
(31.0)
|
37.7
|
21.1
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
6.8
|
2.7
|
1.6
|
2.8
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ROAE (%)
|
1.5
|
(2.7)
|
2.2
|
3.8
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.5
|
(0.8)
|
0.7
|
1.2
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.0
|
12.4
|
11.3
|
9.7
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
18.8
|
47.8
|
50.2
|
53.2
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|
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Share
Price:
|
MYR1.73
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.70
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
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More job wins
|
|
Kimlun has won two additional building contracts with a
total worth of MYR264m, lifting its orderbook by 17% to MYR1.86b.
Further job wins could come from other Klang Valley highways while
precast orders could be lifted by rail projects. Our earnings forecasts
are unchanged as these have been imputed into our forecasts. Maintain
HOLD with an unchanged MYR1.70 TP (based on 11x 2017 PER).
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
Revenue
|
1,206.4
|
1,053.6
|
1,095.3
|
1,079.8
|
EBITDA
|
90.7
|
114.5
|
92.5
|
92.8
|
Core net profit
|
33.8
|
64.4
|
49.4
|
45.6
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.3
|
21.4
|
16.4
|
15.2
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(5.3)
|
90.5
|
(23.3)
|
(7.7)
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
3.5
|
6.4
|
4.4
|
4.1
|
Core P/E (x)
|
15.4
|
8.1
|
10.5
|
11.4
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.0
|
3.7
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
ROAE (%)
|
9.7
|
15.0
|
10.3
|
8.9
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.8
|
6.8
|
5.0
|
4.4
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.0
|
4.2
|
6.3
|
6.0
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
23.2
|
14.7
|
12.2
|
7.8
|
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MACRO RESEARCH
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Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
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Index will test
1,600 very soon
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The FBMKLCI tumbled 21.28 points to close at 1,651.44
yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 plunged 133.03 and 129.71
points respectively. In terms of market breadth, the gainer-to-loser
ratio was 221-to-624, while 324 counters were unchanged. A total of
1.69b shares were traded valued at MYR1.73b.
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Two Fed officials signal markets may be wrong to
doubt June hike. Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco’s
John Williams both signaled that the U.S. economy could warrant a rate
hike when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee gathers on
June 14-15. Investors currently only see a 12% chance of such a move,
according to pricing in interest rate futures contracts. (Source:
Bloomberg)
U.S: Auto sales’ record April doesn’t do much to contain
unease. The U.S. industry sold 1.51 million cars and light trucks in
April, according to researcher Autodata Corp. That broke an 11-year-old
record, according to Edmunds.com. Sales skewed toward more expensive
sport utility vehicles and pickups, a sign that consumers are confident
enough to make big purchases. April’s results show a rebound from the
first quarter, when sales were at historically high levels but showed
slowing growth. The next few months of auto sales will show whether the
U.S. economy has staying power, especially if consumers maintain buying
momentum. (Source: Bloomberg)
E.U: Expects Italy to miss debt-reducing goal on slower
growth. Italy’s debt ratio will remain at 132.7% of gross domestic
product in 2016, the same level as last year, the European Union’s
executive branch said in its spring economic forecasts. The government
last month predicted the debt ratio would fall to 132.4% this year.
Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio is the second-highest in the euro area after
Greece. In April, Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said the reduction
planned for this year “remains a top-priority goal for the government and
is key to maintain market confidence.” (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K: Manufacturing unexpectedly shrank for the first time
in three years in April, dealing a shock blow to the economy after growth
slowed in the first quarter. Markit Economics said its factory Purchasing
Managers Index dropped to 49.2 from 50.7 in March, below the key 50 level
that divides expansion from contraction. Markit also said manufacturing
output is falling at a quarterly pace of about 1% and it estimates that
about 20,000 jobs were lost in the industry over the past three months.
(Source: Bloomberg)
Australia: Economy received a double shot of stimulus as
the government handed down an expansionary budget hours after the central
bank eased policy for the first time in a year. Treasurer Scott Morrison
unveiled a plan to cut company taxes, boost infrastructure spending and
provide income-tax relief, as he forecast a AUD 37.1b (USD 28.1b) deficit
in the 12 months through June 2017. Policies announced included creating
jobs and investment by kick-starting an east coast rail link between
Brisbane and Melbourne as well as providing funds to build dams,
pipelines and roads. The government will also lower the tax rate for
small businesses to 27.5% and pledged a 25% rate for all companies within
a decade. For workers, a 37% income tax rate will kick in at AUD 87,000
instead of the current AUD 80,000. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
AMMB: ANZ writes down AMMB stake. Australia and New
Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ANZ) has provided AUD260m (MYR773.07m) as
impairment losses on its stake in AMMB Holdings in its latest result,
sending another clear signal of its intentions to dispose of the stake.
The banking group has been under increasing pressure from its
shareholders to improve returns from its underperforming Asian assets.
(Source: The Star)
Boustead Holdings: Agrees to time extension for MYR174m
payment. Boustead Holdings wholly-owned subsidiary Bakti Wira Development
Sdn Bhd has agreed to an extension time for the payment of MYR174.6m from
Cascara Sdn Bhd, for its 30% stake in property developer Jendela Hikmat
Sdn Bhd. The share sale agreement shall be completed upon full settlement
of the balance sale consideration by Cascara to Bakti Wira. (Source: The
Sun Daily)
Hibiscus Petroleum: Cancels proposed acquisition on Hydra
Energy. Hibiscus Petroleum has terminated its proposed acquisition of
Australia-based Hydra Energy Holdings Pty Ltd (HEH) due to the
non-fulfillment of certain conditions precedents. HEH could not meet the
term sheet conditions which included parties agreeing and entering into
the sale and purchase agreement and the approval of the shareholders of
HEH to proceed with the proposed acquisition before April 30, 2016. Thus,
the breaking fee of USD3.5m (MYR 13.65m) is not payable by Hibiscus as
the approval of HEH’s shareholders was not obtained. (Source: The Edge
Financial Daily)
Kulim: To be delisted by Q3. Kulim expects its delisting
from the main market of Bursa Malaysia to be completed by the third
quarter of this year. The privatization scheme would give Kulim the
flexibility to decide and act as the company recalibrates its business
transformation. (Source: The Star)
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