QATAR: Qatari banks are
expected to rely more on longer and costlier market funding to support
growth over the next 12-18 months as weaker oil prices could see a
shrinking in the deposit base, according to analysts.
“Qatari banks will face deposit pressures as lower oil prices reduce the
flow of funds from the government and government-related entities – the
largest depositors in the system,” explained Khalid Howladar, a senior
credit officer and the global head of Islamic finance at Moody’s. “However,
Qatari authorities remain willing and able to provide support to the banks
in case of need,” he reassured.
While increasing dependence on market funding and escalating deposit
pressures as well as the impact of an undiversified economy as reflected in
loan book concentrations are causes for concern, Moody’s in its latest
report on Qatar, however, expressed confidence that the banking fraternity
will maintain robust financial metrics for at least another year.
This includes solid earnings and capital buffers of both conventional and
Islamic banks. The latest financial results from Qatari Islamic banks seem
to support projections. For the first quarter of the year, all Shariah
banks in Qatar (except Qatar First Bank as its first quarter results are
not available) realized higher year-on-year profits: Leading the pack was
Masraf Al Rayan (15.1% growth) at QAR518.73 million (US$142.31 million)
followed by Qatar Islamic Bank (12.6%) at QAR412.37 million (US$113.13
million), Qatar International Islamic Bank (4.01%) at QAR212.32 million
(US$58.25 million) and Barwa Bank (3.88%) at QAR208.82 million (US$57.29
million).
The strong operating environment supported by an effective regulatory
infrastructure and a significant number of high quality government-related
financing will continue to boost banking asset quality, according to
Moody’s. “We expect that system non-performing loans will remain at around
1.5-2% of gross loans over the next 12-18 months,” confirmed Nitish
Bhojnagarwala, Moody’s assistant vice-president and author of the report.
A continued expansion is also anticipated for banks’ balance sheet, lending
strength to the domestic economic landscape and foreign expansion. The
rating agency, however, predicts a slight decline in capitalization levels
with tangible common equity to risk-weighted assets ratio in the 15-17%
range over the next 12-18 months.
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