Daily FX Update, 15 July 2015

v  Both US June retail sales and NFIB small business survey decline from previous month v  UK CPI inflation in June remain unchanged v  Euro area May industrial production decline v  China's foreign exchange reserves fall for the fourth consecutive quarters v  Singapore economy expands by a slower pace in Q2 2015 v  Bank Indonesia decides to maintain its reference rate at 7.5%

·         US – June retail sales declined 0.3% from the previous month. ‘Control’ retail sales, which feed directly into GDP – declined 0.1% m/m. The weakness was broadly based and the strong May outcome was revised a touch lower.

·         US – NFIB small business survey also declined in June to 94.1 from 98.3 in May. The details of the survey weren’t favorable, with the employment components of the survey weakening.

·         UK – CPI inflation in June remain unchanged in the month and over the year and the core inflation remained subdued at 0.8% y/y.

·         Euro area – Euro area May industrial production declined 0.4% m/m due to sharp declines in the energy and non-durable goods components.

·         Euro area – Q2 ECB bank lending survey was positive and showed a further easing in credit conditions and a strengthening in demand for credit from both households and businesses.

·         Euro area – Germany’s ZEW survey was mixed. It rose to 63.9 in July from 62.9 but the expectations component eased to 29.7 from 31.5.

·         Currency – AUD found a bid on yesterday’s solid NAB business survey. GBP outperformed as interest rate ‘normalisation’ approaches. USD momentum stalled after weak retail sales.

·         Equity – US equity markets were higher as market digested a slew of headlines including an Iran nuclear deal and disappointing US economic data.

·         Rate – The unexpected decline in US retail sales drove a modest rally in US Treasuries, although moves were partly pared later in the session.

·         Energy – Oil prices closed higher despite the news of deal strike by Iran with the UN Security group.

·         Precious Metal – Gold price slips lower on the back of Greece’s debt deal and a firmer dollar.

INDICATIVE MAJOR CURRENCIES Last Close  8.15 am Snapshot        Bid                   Offer Expected Ranges for Today         Low                       High USD/MYR 3.8073 3.7860 3.8190 3.7840 3.8290 JPY/MYR (100) 3.0863 3.0700 3.1030 3.0600 3.1200 SGD/MYR 2.7968 2.7780 2.8100 2.7700 2.8300 EUR/MYR 4.1918 4.1640 4.2000 4.1400 4.2300 AUD/MYR 2.8372 2.8140 2.8480 2.8000 2.8700 GBP/MYR 5.9337 5.9280 5.9610 5.9000 6.0200 USD/JPY 123.36 123.09 123.50 122.69 123.69 EUR/USD 1.1010 1.0840 1.1150 1.0940 1.1050 AUD/USD 0.7452 0.7290 0.7600 0.7400 0.7500