Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2014-11-11)

Daily 11 November 2014 TOP VIEWS GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) | Company update Bank of Baroda (BOB IN) | Rating change SP Setia (SPSB MK) | Rating change SM Prime Holdings (SMPH PM) | Results review GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) The first step of restructuring? Share Price: HKD2.10 | Target Price: HKD3.90 (+86%) | MCap (USD): 4.2B | ADTV (USD): 41M Despite corporate governance concerns, we see upside potential from cost reductions and as it�s trading at an attractive 10x FY15F PER. Maintain BUY with TP of HKD3.90. We think the possible disposal of wafer business could be the initial step of a group restructuring. From the conference call and recent corporate action, we gathered GCL-Poly will continue to focus on upstream (poly-silicon), while Shanghai Chaori on mid-steam (wafer, cell and modules) and GCL New Energy on downstream (solar farms). We are less concerned about the disposal price, as it is subject to shareholders� approval. However, investors should have legitimate concerns on transfer pricing between various entities and the strength of the potential third-party investor, as well as the chairman�s stake in each entity. (Full report will be out soon) Bank of Baroda (BOB IN) U/G to BUY on better NIM outlook Share Price: INR961 | Target Price: INR1,100 (+15%) | MCap (USD): 6.7B | ADTV (USD): 18M Upgrade to BUY from SELL with revised TP of INR1,100 (based on 1.1x FY16F P/BV) as the NIM outlook improves. NII growth was ahead of estimate on higher-than-expected NIM expansion. Asset quality remained under check. Loan growth moderated to 13.5% following average growth of 19% in the past four quarters, which is comforting. Revising up our FY16-17F EPS by 7% for each to factor in improvement in margins. Click here for report » SP Setia (SPSB MK) New-found catalysts; U/G to BUY Share Price: MYR3.27 | Target Price: MYR3.98 (+22%) | MCap (USD): 2.5B | ADTV (USD): 1M Overseas earnings to start featuring, boosting SPSB� medium-term outlook. Stronger earnings base should mitigate uncertainties from the departure of senior management. Upgrade to BUY with a higher TP of MYR3.98. Potential asset injection by PNB could add 41sen to our RNAV/share. Click here for report » SM Prime Holdings (SMPH PM) Steady mall sales drive 9M14 results Share Price: PHP17.40 | Target Price: PHP21.83 (+25%) | MCap (USD): 10.8B | ADTV (USD): 5M Maintain BUY with TP of PHP21.83. Stock offers 25% upside. Strong 9M14 results underpinned by healthy mall sales, from both Philippines and China, and strong residential revenues due to project completion and sales take-up. SMPH plans to open five new domestic malls and one in China in 2015. Click here for report » COMPANY NOTES Regional Plantations | NEUTRAL Tata Global Beverages (TGBL IN) | Results review TSH Resources (TSH MK) | Company update Ayala Land (ALI PM) | Results review Sarine Technologies (SARIN SP) | Results review Super Group (SUPER SP) | Results review Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB) | Results review Chularat Hospital (CHG TB) | Results review Quality Houses (QH TB) | Results Review Regional Plantations Trading opportunity till 1Q15 Sector update Malaysia�s October 2014 stockpile remains under control; the market is now concern about palm oil supply growth in 2015. Expect palm oil to make a seasonal price recovery, trending higher to MYR2,600/t by end-1Q15. Investors should position for a short term trade. BUY First Resources, Bumitama Agri, Sime Darby, Swk Oil Palms, Ta Ann and TSH Resources for earnings recovery play. Click here for report » Tata Global Beverages (TGBL IN) The tea leaves point to strong YoY trend Share Price: INR160 | Target Price: INR194 (+21%) | MCap (USD): 1.6B | ADTV (USD): 12M Maintain BUY with Street-high TP of INR194 based on SOTP valuation (64% for the India tea business, 9% each for the coffee business and group investments, and 18% for Tetley). 2Q EBIDTA of INR1.8b is 18% higher YoY, supported by 100bps margin expansion, despite moderate increase in sales. Reported profit declined due to one-offs. We are confident TGBL will meet our FY15F EPS of INR6.5, which requires 2H performance to be better than 1H. We expect 55% total earnings in 2H, supported by the tea business in South Asia that is growing strongly, improving contribution of high-margin coffee sales in the US, and reduced intensity of sales promotion expenses in Europe. Click here for report » TSH Resources (TSH MK) Optimizing operations Share Price: MYR2.29 | Target Price: MYR2.45 (+7%) | MCap (USD): 930M | ADTV (USD): 0.7M Estate management system implemented to enhance productivity and long term sustainability. Dry weather at Central Kalimantan for ~60 days but rain has resumed. Impact on production could be minimal. TSH�s robust production growth would be supported by its young tree age profile and efficient management. Reiterate BUY at unchanged MYR2.45TP(adjusted for bonus issue). Click here for report » Ayala Land (ALI PM) 2020 Vision starts on right footing Share Price: PHP34.70 | Target Price: PHP44.00 (+27%) | MCap (USD): 10.9B | ADTV (USD): 10M New medium-term plan called 2020 Vision aims for net income of PHP40b by 2020, or +20% pa in 2013-20. 9M14 earnings of PHP10.8b, up 25% YoY, in line. Better than planned medium-term growth. Maintain BUY & PHP44 TP, at 10% discount to NAV. Catalysts from further sets of strong results. Click here for report » Sarine Technologies (SARIN SP) Credit crunch hits Share Price: SGD3.10 | Target Price: SGD2.98 (-4%) | MCap (USD): 835M | ADTV (USD): 0.5M 3Q14 net profit of USD5.7m in line. Expect credit issues for customers in 4Q14. Cut FY14E-16E EPS by 3-8%. Maintain HOLD with lowered DCF TP of SGD2.98, from SGD3.16. Click here for report » Super Group (SUPER SP) Risk/reward tide could be turning Share Price: SGD1.07 | Target Price: SGD1.02 (-4%) | MCap (USD): 919M | ADTV (USD): 2M 3Q14 below, hit by higher input costs and unfavourable product mix. 4Q14 reprieve, with medium-term turnaround plan showing early promise. Upgrade to HOLD from SELL. SGD1.02 TP pegged to five-year mean of 15x FY15E EPS. Click here for report » Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB) 3Q in line Share Price: THB136.50 | Target Price: THB130.00 (-5%) | MCap (USD): 3.0B | ADTV (USD): 3M Earnings were within our and consensus expectations. 9M14 revenue and earnings accounted for 72%/75% of our FY14 projections, vs 74%/75% in 9M13. 3Q14 sales/NPAT grew 11%/9% YoY, bringing 9M14 sales/NPAT growth to 6%/7% YoY. EBITDA rose 11% YoY with strong margin of 29.6% (-10bps YoY, +242bps QoQ). Maintain HOLD with DCF-based TP of THB130, implying 35x PER, 7x P/BV, and 1.5x PEG for 2015F. We prefer BGH (TP THB23). Click here for report » Chularat Hospital (CHG TB) 3Q beat our estimates Share Price: THB19.70 | Target Price: THB19.00 (-4%) | MCap (USD): 660M | ADTV (USD): 2M Earnings were 9% above our expectations but 17% below consensus estimate. 9M14 revenue and earnings accounted for 80%/78% of our FY14 estimates vs 73%/74% in 9M13. 3Q14 sales/NPAT rose 13%/1% YoY, bringing 9M14 sales/NPAT growth to 21%/19% YoY. EBITDA rose 5% YoY with strong margin of 27% (-220bps YoY, +60bps QoQ). Raise earnings by 7% in 2014 and 11% in 2015. Maintain HOLD with new TP of THB19, implying 35x PER, 6.8x P/BV, and 1.5x PEG. Click here for report » Quality Houses (QH TB) 3Q14 below estimates Share Price: THB4.18 | Target Price: THB6.00 (+44%) | MCap (USD): 1.2B | ADTV (USD): 4M Maintain BUY on sector�s Top Pick with SOTP-based TP of THB6.0. ST catalyst from launch of Q Nana by 1Q15. 3Q14 earnings were THB1,070m (EPS THB0.11), up 9% QoQ and 21% YoY. This was 10% below our estimate but in line with BB consensus. 9M14 net profit accounted for 82% of our full-year estimates. 9M14 presales were THB14.6b, down 12% YoY. This accounted for 71% of our estimate. Click here for report »