Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2014-06-04)


Daily
04 June 2014
TOP VIEWS
  • Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) | Company Update
  • PVRL (PVRL IN) | TP Revision
  • Berjaya Auto (BAUTO MK) | Results Preview
  • Concepcion Industrial Corp (CIC PM) | Company Update
Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)
Remains on track
Share Price: IDR1,090 | Target Price: IDR1,330(+22%) | MCap (USD): 1.4B | ADTV (USD): 3M
  • CTRA highlights at AGM its optimism in achieving its targets this year. Reiterates its project pipelines are on track.
  • Distributes 30% dividend payout which yields 1.7%.
  • Maintain BUY as a sector Top Pick with TP of IDR1,330; translating to 50% discount to RNAV of IDR2,635.
PVRL (PVRL IN)
FY15 to be a 'HIT' year
Share Price: INR599 | Target Price: INR746(+24%) | MCap (USD): 403M | ADTV (USD): 1.0M
  • Maintain BUY with new Street-high TP of INR746 (+25%) and roll over to FY16 EPS of INR37.3 (16% higher than consensus).
  • 4QFY14 EBITDA of INR331m was better than our forecast of INR270m, driven by better-than-expected performance of the movie exhibition business.
  • We remain bullish on PVRL's superior, long-term growth,driven by its market leadership and increased penetration of multiplexes in the domestic market.
Berjaya Auto (BAUTO MK)
Expect a roaring finish
Share Price: MYR2.01 | Target Price: MYR2.90 (+44%) | MCap (USD): 0.5B | ADTV (USD): 0.7M
  • Lifted FY14-16 core earnings forecasts by 20-23% on stronger margins outlook from better sales mix & lower cost of sales.
  • BAuto is our preferred auto play, on strong product line-up, earnings growth and undemanding valuations.
  • Reiterate BUY and new top end of the Street TP of MYR2.90, pegged to unchanged 12x CY15 PER, offering 44% upside.
Concepcion Industrial Corp (CIC PM)
Sizzling 1Q14 for air con and ref
Share Price: PHP41.00 | Target Price: PHP50.00 (+22%)| MCap (USD): 244M |ADTV (USD): 0.1M
  • Reiterate BUY on this under-researched name for strong set of results, further upside and attractively valued. Raising FY14-15F earnings 9-8% and target price by 39% to PHP50.
  • 1Q14 net income up 32% YoY on stronger sales and margins.
  • Valuation remains undemanding even after recent rally.
  • (FULL REPORT WILL BE OUT SOON)
COMPANY NOTES
  • Malaysia Plantations | NEUTRAL
  • AP (Thailand) (AP TB) | Company Update
  • Kasikornbank (KBANK TB) | Company Update
Malaysia Plantations
Sector Update
1Q14 Results Round Up
  • 1Q14 plantation earnings were a mixed bag with 44% inline, 33% above, and 23% below expectations.
  • Although still preliminary at this juncture, we see flattish to slightly lower QoQ upstream earnings in 2Q14.
  • Maintain 12M NEUTRAL view. Key upside risk is the return of a strong El Nino.
  • (FULL REPORT WILL BE OUT SOON)
AP (Thailand) (AP TB)
Price not reflecting performance
Share Price: THB5.65 | Target Price: THB6.50(+15%) | MCap (USD): 491M | ADTV (USD): 2M
  • Reiterate BUY and TP of THB6.5 pegged to 8.6x FY14 PE; share price does not reflect its impressive performance.
  • 5M14 presales surged 26% YoY to THB7.5b due mainly to strong take-up rate of three condos launched in May-14 vs. declines of 16-45% YoY for its peers.
  • Cheapest valuation in the sector at 7.5x PE and 1.0x PBV in FY14 vs. 11x PE and 2.0x PBV for the sector.
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB)
Expect improvement in SME loans
Share Price: THB193.50 | Target Price: THB225.00(+16%) | MCap (USD): 14.1B | ADTV (USD): 42M
  • Maintain BUY and revised TP of THB225 (from THB210) implying 2.1x FY14 P/BV. One of our sector Top Picks.
  • Raise FY14-15F earnings by 2% to reflect the better loan and fee income growth due to private confidence and spending recovery.
  • Loan quality should improve following payments under rice pledging scheme.
  • (FULL REPORT WILL BE OUT SOON)
ECONOMICS
Malaysia Economics
Subsidy Rationalisation
Fuel subsidy review next?
  • Government reportedly in the midst of overhauling the present blanket fuel subsidy mechanism.
  • Moving to a targeted system to reduce the subsidy bills, cut leakages and curb smuggling.
  • New fuel subsidy system could be implemented as soon as 1 Sep 2014.
  • (FULL REPORT WILL BE OUT SOON)

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