|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.29
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.75
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No surprises
expected in 2Q17
|
|
We forecast AirAsia’s 2Q17 core net profit to be about
MYR221m (-19% YoY, -17% QoQ). This would take 1H17 net profit to about
MYR487m, or 39% of our full-year forecast which is consistent with the
Group’s 40:60 1H:2H profit split. The lower YoY profit is expected as
2016 was an exceptional year and we remain confident AirAsia is
on-track to meet our FY17 forecast. Keep BUY & TP of MYR3.75.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
6,297.7
|
6,923.9
|
7,058.0
|
7,678.5
|
|
EBITDAR
|
2,629.9
|
3,276.6
|
2,900.0
|
2,801.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
177.7
|
1,557.6
|
1,238.9
|
1,280.7
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
6.4
|
56.0
|
37.4
|
38.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
434.5
|
776.1
|
(33.2)
|
3.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
3.0
|
4.0
|
45.0
|
9.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
51.5
|
5.9
|
8.8
|
8.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.1
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.9
|
1.2
|
13.7
|
2.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
12.0
|
36.8
|
17.5
|
15.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
7.2
|
5.9
|
6.1
|
|
EV/EBITDAR (x)
|
5.2
|
4.6
|
4.5
|
5.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
228.9
|
133.7
|
27.5
|
45.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SECTOR RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
It’s getting hot in here
by Chee
Ting Ong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lower rainfall, higher temperature and possibly some
haze in 3Q17 should not be a concern for investors as this is largely
seasonal. The market is still anticipating a post El Nino yield
recovery and a seasonal pick up in 2H17 output. Stay NEUTRAL on the sector
as we expect CPO price to seasonally weaken further in 2H17 when
output peaks, and amidst ample supply of oilseeds. Our regional BUYS
are BPLANT, SOP, BAL, AALI, LSIP and TBLA.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Slower external trade growth on seasonality
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Export and import growth slowed in June 2017 to +10.0%
YoY (May 2017: +32.5% YoY) and +3.7% YoY (May 2017: +30.4% YoY) on
the seasonal effect of Ramadhan and Eid. Trade surplus broadened to
+MYR9.9b in June 2017 (May 2017: +MYR5.5b) and rebounded +34.7% YoY
in 2Q 2017 (1Q 2017: -21.1% YoY), indicating net external demand was
GDP-accretive last quarter.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Inflation stays below 3%
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Headline inflation rate in July 2017 picked up
slightly to +2.8% YoY (June 2017: +2.7% YoY) while core inflation
eased to 11-month low at +2.1% YoY (June 2017: +2.6% YoY). Headline
inflation in Jan-Jul 2017 was +3.1% YoY. Revised down our full-year
2017 headline inflation rate forecast to +3.0% (previous: +3.3%) but
maintain 2018 forecast of +3.5%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dow Jones Index Technical Review & Regional
Seasonality Study
by Nik
Ihsan Raja Abdullah
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The bulls dominated Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
(INDU Index) since Mar 2009. The benchmark took out the 14,198 high
and extended its upward trajectory towards the recent high of 22,092.
With no major signs of reversal in sight, we believe there is still
room for INDU Index to charge higher.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nik Ihsan Raja
Abdullah
|
|
|
|
Tee Sze Chiah
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Payroll gain of 209,000, wage pickup show U.S. labor
strength. The U.S. labor market hit its stride in July, as employers
added workers at a solid clip; the jobless rate matched a 16-year low and
monthly wage growth picked up. Payrolls rose 209k; May-June revisions
added 2k jobs. Unemployment rate, derived from separate survey of
households, fell to 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM after
0.2% MoM gain; up 2.5% YoY. Job gains were broad-based during July, led
by a large jump in leisure and hospitality employment, a move driven by
restaurants. Hiring also hit five-month highs in manufacturing and
education and health services. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Narrowing trade deficit in June shows export swing.
America’s trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low in June, helped by
the biggest outflow of goods and services since the end of 2014, a
positive signal for the economy entering the third quarter, Commerce
Department data showed. Gap shrank 5.9% to USD 43.6b. Exports rose 1.2%
to USD 194.4b, boosted by shipments of capital equipment, petroleum and
soybeans. Imports fell 0.2% due to declines in crude oil and consumer
goods. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K. Economy takes a hit as consumer spending slumps
further. U.K. consumers cut back on spending for a third month in July,
putting them in their worst slump in more than four years and dealing
another blow to the economy at the start of the quarter. The 0.8% YoY
drop in spending was broad- ranging, with clothing, household goods, food
and transport among the worst hit, IHS Markit and Visa said in a report
published. The downbeat report comes days after the Bank of England
downgraded its economic outlook and Governor Mark Carney warned that
Brexit uncertainty is weighing on business and households. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Crude Oil: Holds gains before OPEC talks on cut
compliance. Representatives of OPEC nations will meet with their allies
to discuss why some of them are falling behind in pledges to reduce
production. The two-day meeting in Abu Dhabi which will be co-chaired by
Kuwait and Russia will examine why some participants in the deal to
collectively reduce global supply aren’t fully implementing their cuts.
The number of U.S. drill rigs targeting crude fell by one last week,
according to Baker Hughes Inc. Brent for October settlement was USD
52.38/bbl a barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
Malakoff: Settles dispute over Tanjung Bin power plant.
Malakoff Corp's 90%-owned subsidiary, Tanjung Bin Power S/B (TBP) has
signed an agreement with litigation and arbitration respondents to
resolve and settle the disputes between the parties involving the 22
different boiler tube failure incidents at the power station consisting
of three 700MW coal-fired units owned and operated by TBP and the
inability of the plant to meet certain required output conditions. As a
result of the agreement, a consent judgment will be entered in the
litigation action on a strictly without admission of liability basis, and
TBP as the claimant, will withdraw and discontinue the arbitration
proceedings on the terms and conditions set out in the agreement. The
total claimed against defendants was estimated at MYR780m. (Source: The
Sun Daily)
Media Prima: Media Prima’s Primaworks sells content to
Netflix. Media Prima Primeworks Studios S/B has found a new channel to
promote its locally-produced content to an international audience.
Primeworks recently stated supplying content to global streaming network
Netflix that will be aired on the latter’s platform soon, according to
sources. Primeworks will have five of its Malay and Chinese titles rolled
out when Netflix makes them available on its service starting Aug 7
(today). It is not known how much revenue Primeworks could fetch from the
supply of locally-produced content to Netflix. However, sources said the
company aims for international sales to make up 20% of its revenue by
2020 from the current single-digit percentage contribution. (Source: The
Edge Financial Daily)
|
|
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.