Wednesday, August 30, 2017

FW: [Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia-Nexgram: Drops MYR338m project. A unit of Nexgram Holdings, Intra Binaraya S/B (IBSB), has terminated a USD77m (MYR338.8m) job to construct the vaccine fill and finish plant and pharmaceutical and neutraceutica

 

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COMPANY
RESEARCH

AirAsia Bhd | 2016 record year was no blip!
Mohshin Aziz

Telekom Malaysia | Settling in
Chi Wei Tan

RHB Bank | Not much excitement in 2Q17
Desmond Ch'ng

YTL Power | Likely the new norm
Chi Wei Tan

Lafarge Malaysia | Expect pent-up demand
Yen Ling Lee

Alliance Financial Group | Higher costs ahead
Desmond Ch'ng

Sunway | Earnings on track
Wei Sum Wong

Media Chinese International | Earnings drag
Jade Tam

Lingkaran Trans Kota | 2Q17: Within expectations
Adrian Wong

Kimlun Bhd | 2Q17: Below expectations
Adrian Wong

7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings | 2Q17: SSSG turned positive
Liew Wei Han

Barakah Offshore Petroleum | 1H17: Missed expectation
Thong Jung Liaw

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MACRO
RESEARCH

Malaysia | COMEX GOLD – Upward Trajectory
Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah

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COMPANY RESEARCH

Malaysia

Results Review

AirAsia Bhd (AIRA MK)
by Mohshin Aziz

Share Price:

MYR3.33

Target Price:

MYR3.75

Recommendation:

Buy

2016 record year was no blip!

2Q17 core earning was MYR427m (+57% YoY, +61% QoQ) after adjusting for FX-translation, derivative MTM and other non-cash items. This is ahead of ours and consensus forecasts; 1H17 earnings accounted for 56% of our full-year. Outlook remains rosy on benign competitive landscape and relatively stable fuel prices; earnings could further surprise on the upside. No change to our earnings forecasts for now and TP of MYR3.75, based on unchanged 10x 2017 PER (peer group average). Maintain BUY.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY15A

FY16A

FY17E

FY18E

Revenue

6,297.7

6,923.9

7,058.0

7,678.5

EBITDAR

2,629.9

3,276.6

2,900.0

2,801.7

Core net profit

177.7

1,557.6

1,238.9

1,280.7

Core EPS (sen)

6.4

56.0

37.4

38.6

Core EPS growth (%)

434.5

776.1

(33.2)

3.4

Net DPS (sen)

3.0

4.0

45.0

9.0

Core P/E (x)

52.1

5.9

8.9

8.6

P/BV (x)

2.1

1.4

1.5

1.3

Net dividend yield (%)

0.9

1.2

13.5

2.7

ROAE (%)

12.0

36.8

17.5

15.2

ROAA (%)

0.9

7.2

5.9

6.1

EV/EBITDAR (x)

5.2

4.6

4.5

5.3

Net debt/equity (%)

228.9

133.7

27.5

45.2

Malaysia

Results Review

Telekom Malaysia (T MK)
by Chi Wei Tan

Share Price:

MYR6.42

Target Price:

MYR6.00

Recommendation:

Hold

Settling in

1H17 results were in line, with lower depreciation offsetting seemingly high-than-expected wireless losses. New management alluded to a challenging operating environment, and are presently exploring ways to derive efficiency gains. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged MYR6.00 TP. Risk-reward remains fairly balanced, in our view.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY15A

FY16A

FY17E

FY18E

Revenue

11,721.6

12,060.9

12,488.0

12,990.4

EBITDA

3,677.0

3,820.0

3,921.2

4,156.9

Core net profit

894.9

847.9

809.6

797.9

Core EPS (sen)

23.8

22.6

21.5

21.2

Core EPS growth (%)

(8.1)

(5.3)

(4.5)

(1.4)

Net DPS (sen)

21.4

21.5

19.4

19.1

Core P/E (x)

27.0

28.5

29.8

30.2

P/BV (x)

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

Net dividend yield (%)

3.3

3.3

3.0

3.0

ROAE (%)

9.1

10.0

10.5

10.2

ROAA (%)

3.8

3.4

3.2

3.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

7.9

7.1

7.7

7.3

Net debt/equity (%)

45.7

64.0

77.2

80.2

Malaysia

Results Review

RHB Bank (RHBBANK MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR5.05

Target Price:

MYR5.45

Recommendation:

Hold

Not much excitement in 2Q17

Operationally, RHB's 2Q17 results were subdued, as expected, and provisions against O&G defaults continued to feature. With little catalyst in sight, we maintain our forecasts and HOLD call on RHB. Our TP of MYR5.45 is unchanged, pegged to a CY18 PBV of 0.9x, on the back of a projected ROE of 9.7%.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY15A

FY16A

FY17E

FY18E

Operating income

6,174.7

6,193.2

6,447.7

6,756.0

Pre-provision profit

2,545.0

3,094.5

3,321.9

3,526.8

Core net profit

1,798.4

1,681.6

2,131.2

2,265.8

Core EPS (MYR)

0.69

0.44

0.53

0.57

Core EPS growth (%)

(3.3)

(36.9)

21.9

6.3

Net DPS (MYR)

0.12

0.12

0.16

0.17

Core P/E (x)

7.3

11.6

9.5

8.9

P/BV (x)

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

Net dividend yield (%)

2.4

2.4

3.2

3.4

Book value (MYR)

5.11

5.42

5.62

6.05

ROAE (%)

9.9

8.5

9.6

9.7

ROAA (%)

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.9

Malaysia

Results Review

YTL Power (YTLP MK)
by Chi Wei Tan

Share Price:

MYR1.43

Target Price:

MYR1.45

Recommendation:

Hold

Likely the new norm

FY6/17 results were in line, with segmentals generally performing to expectations. More importantly, dividend was indeed halved, possibly in lieu of upcoming capex commitments. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged MYR1.45 TP. Dividend yield has now been halved, while the accretive new projects remain some time away from commissioning.

FYE Jun (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

10,240.5

9,778.2

9,412.0

9,587.9

EBITDA

2,717.8

2,374.2

2,634.1

2,741.1

Core net profit

872.0

676.5

759.5

843.4

Core FDEPS (sen)

11.2

8.7

9.7

10.8

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(8.5)

(22.8)

12.3

11.0

Net DPS (sen)

10.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

Core FD P/E (x)

12.7

16.5

14.7

13.2

P/BV (x)

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

Net dividend yield (%)

7.0

3.5

3.5

3.5

ROAE (%)

8.8

5.2

5.7

6.1

ROAA (%)

2.0

1.5

1.6

1.7

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.3

11.7

10.5

10.1

Net debt/equity (%)

115.6

125.1

122.1

118.0

Malaysia

Results Review

Lafarge Malaysia (LMC MK)
by Yen Ling Lee

Share Price:

MYR5.50

Target Price:

MYR6.90

Recommendation:

Buy

Expect pent-up demand

Losses in 2Q17 narrowed slightly due to the lower maintenance and exceptional costs. We expect LMC to turn profitable in 3Q17 given the bag cement ASP hike and substantial cost savings. Maintain our earnings forecasts for now, pending a post-results briefing on 8 Sep (next Fri). LMC's valuation is attractive as it trades at a P/B of 1.5x (-2SD to mean) and EV/t of USD86/t, the second lowest in the region. Maintain BUY and TP of MYR6.90 (1.9x P/B, -1SD to mean).

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY15A

FY16A

FY17E

FY18E

Revenue

2,750.8

2,552.2

2,318.1

2,654.6

EBITDA

511.6

302.1

248.4

419.0

Core net profit

252.3

84.9

3.9

132.4

Core EPS (sen)

29.7

10.0

0.5

15.6

Core EPS growth (%)

(1.4)

(66.3)

(95.4)

3,321.8

Net DPS (sen)

31.0

5.0

0.2

14.0

Core P/E (x)

18.5

55.0

nm

35.3

P/BV (x)

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Net dividend yield (%)

5.6

0.9

0.0

2.6

ROAE (%)

8.1

2.5

0.1

4.3

ROAA (%)

6.0

2.0

0.1

3.1

EV/EBITDA (x)

14.8

20.7

19.2

11.2

Net debt/equity (%)

1.0

4.6

2.6

0.3

Malaysia

TP Revision

Alliance Financial Group (AFG MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR3.82

Target Price:

MYR4.00

Recommendation:

Hold

Higher costs ahead

With the expected pick-up in investment and cost rationalization this financial year, AFG's FY3/18 earnings are expected to be subdued and management is guiding for a decline in ROE to 9.5% in FY18 from 10.5% in FY17. Against this backdrop and with little near-term catalyst, we maintain our HOLD call and cut our TP to MYR4.00 (-35sen) on a lower CY18 PBV of 1.1x versus 1.2x previously.

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Operating income

1,424.1

1,469.4

1,560.0

1,614.5

Pre-provision profit

735.2

777.5

795.6

827.7

Core net profit

522.0

512.1

516.3

530.9

Core FDEPS (MYR)

0.34

0.34

0.34

0.35

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(1.7)

(1.9)

0.8

2.8

Net DPS (MYR)

0.14

0.16

0.16

0.17

Core FD P/E (x)

11.2

11.4

11.3

11.0

P/BV (x)

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

Net dividend yield (%)

3.8

4.2

4.2

4.3

Book value (MYR)

3.17

3.35

3.52

3.70

ROAE (%)

11.2

10.3

9.8

9.6

ROAA (%)

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

Malaysia

Results Review

Sunway (SWB MK)
by Wei Sum Wong

Share Price:

MYR4.35

Target Price:

MYR4.04

Recommendation:

Hold

Earnings on track

Sunway's 1H17 net profit is within expectations. However, its 6-month locked in property sales of MYR339m fell short due to the lack of new launches while construction job wins are on track to meet its 2017 target of MYR2b. We fine-tune our earnings forecasts. Our RNAV-TP is unchanged at MYR4.04 (on 0.7x P/RNAV). Maintain HOLD.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY15A

FY16A

FY17E

FY18E

Revenue

4,448.4

4,725.9

5,579.1

6,630.5

EBITDA

427.2

531.1

811.0

1,023.3

Core net profit

590.7

547.4

538.8

613.1

Core EPS (sen)

33.7

29.5

26.1

29.7

Core EPS growth (%)

(1.6)

(12.5)

(11.4)

13.8

Net DPS (sen)

37.0

12.1

11.8

13.4

Core P/E (x)

12.9

14.8

16.7

14.6

P/BV (x)

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

Net dividend yield (%)

8.5

2.8

2.7

3.1

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

4.1

3.1

2.9

3.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

21.7

18.3

17.2

14.7

Net debt/equity (%)

45.2

40.9

49.1

59.3

Malaysia

Results Review

Media Chinese International (MCIL MK)
by Jade Tam

Share Price:

MYR0.50

Target Price:

MYR0.66

Recommendation:

Buy

Earnings drag

1QFY3/18 results missed expectations. Its Malaysian print segment underperformed and was only partially mitigated by better travel earnings. That said, we expect improved sequential earnings going forward given adex-friendly events and cost rationalisation in 2HCY17. As such, we keep our earnings forecasts for now. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR0.66 (13x CY17 PER; +1SD to mean). MCIL may declare a special DPS of up to MYR0.15/shr upon the sale of OMG.

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

1,362.3

1,338.3

1,172.2

1,192.0

EBITDA

205.2

154.2

153.1

163.3

Core net profit

111.6

83.0

87.2

94.5

Core EPS (sen)

6.6

4.9

5.2

5.6

Core EPS growth (%)

(22.7)

(25.7)

5.0

8.5

Net DPS (sen)

4.3

3.2

3.6

3.9

Core P/E (x)

7.6

10.2

9.7

8.9

P/BV (x)

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.0

Net dividend yield (%)

8.6

6.4

7.2

7.8

ROAE (%)

12.9

7.9

10.5

11.6

ROAA (%)

7.1

5.6

6.5

7.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

5.5

6.1

4.0

3.4

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

Lingkaran Trans Kota (LTK MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR5.86

Target Price:

MYR6.10

Recommendation:

Hold

2Q17: Within expectations

1QFY3/18 net profit of MYR55m was in line. LITRAK also declared a first interim dividend of 15sen (+50% YoY). Although more dividends could be announced in the subsequent quarters based on its strong cash position, we keep our 25sen DPS estimate for FY18 for now. No change to our earnings forecasts and DCF-TP of MYR6.10.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

416.2

534.2

540.6

546.0

EBITDA

353.3

460.6

459.6

456.9

Core net profit

174.1

221.0

226.8

241.3

Core EPS (sen)

33.4

42.1

43.2

46.0

Core EPS growth (%)

25.0

25.9

2.6

6.4

Net DPS (sen)

25.0

25.0

25.0

25.0

Core P/E (x)

17.5

13.9

13.6

12.8

P/BV (x)

5.0

4.3

3.8

3.3

Net dividend yield (%)

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

7.9

9.8

9.8

10.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

11.1

8.2

7.8

7.5

Net debt/equity (%)

143.6

95.4

65.3

37.0

Malaysia

TP Revision

Kimlun Bhd (KICB MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR2.16

Target Price:

MYR2.30

Recommendation:

Hold

2Q17: Below expectations

1H17 core earnings were below ours/consensus expectations on weaker-than-expected contribution from the manufacturing division. Our FY17/ FY18 earnings forecasts are revised down after delaying manufacturing works recognition and tweaking for margins. We also roll forward our valuations to FY18. Consequently, we derive a new TP of MYR2.30 (-5 sen), pegged to unchanged 10x PER (+0.5 SD).

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY15A

FY16A

FY17E

FY18E

Revenue

1,053.6

940.7

1,198.3

1,046.8

EBITDA

112.7

130.9

102.4

113.6

Core net profit

64.4

80.7

61.9

70.5

Core EPS (sen)

21.4

26.4

20.2

23.0

Core EPS growth (%)

90.5

23.0

(23.4)

14.0

Net DPS (sen)

5.8

6.5

5.5

6.2

Core P/E (x)

10.1

8.2

10.7

9.4

P/BV (x)

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.0

Net dividend yield (%)

2.7

3.0

2.5

2.9

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

6.8

8.2

5.9

6.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

4.3

5.1

6.6

5.8

Net debt/equity (%)

14.3

6.7

3.1

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings (SEM MK)
by Liew Wei Han

Share Price:

MYR1.39

Target Price:

MYR1.10

Recommendation:

Sell

2Q17: SSSG turned positive

SEM's 1H17 core net profit made up 44% of our full-year estimates, in line. The near to medium term focus for SEM remains to be cost efficiencies, in line with its 18-month "Back to Basics" exercise which was unveiled end-July 2017. Execution remains key. We keep our earnings forecasts and SELL call with an unchanged TP of MYR1.10.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY15A

FY16A

FY17E

FY18E

Revenue

2,006.3

2,103.4

2,170.7

2,434.1

EBITDA

127.4

126.5

116.0

133.5

Core net profit

55.8

54.0

41.0

52.5

Core EPS (sen)

4.6

4.4

3.3

4.3

Core EPS growth (%)

(3.3)

(3.3)

(24.0)

28.0

Net DPS (sen)

4.7

4.7

1.7

2.1

Core P/E (x)

30.5

31.6

41.5

32.5

P/BV (x)

10.0

48.4

30.6

20.8

Net dividend yield (%)

3.4

3.4

1.2

1.5

ROAE (%)

27.5

52.5

90.2

76.3

ROAA (%)

7.5

7.1

5.2

6.1

EV/EBITDA (x)

13.8

14.3

15.1

12.8

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

188.2

88.5

7.5

Malaysia

Results Review

Barakah Offshore Petroleum (BARAKAH MK)
by Thong Jung Liaw

Share Price:

MYR0.46

Target Price:

MYR0.13

Recommendation:

Sell

1H17: Missed expectation

1H17 results came in below ours/consensus expectations, on widening losses in 2Q17. This prompts a substantial cut in our FY17-19 earnings forecasts – we now expect Barakah to be in the red in FY17-18. Order book replenishment remains a key concern. With operating outlook over the next few quarters still posing a major challenge and valuations still demanding vis-à-vis peers, Barakah remains a SELL with an unchanged MYR0.13 TP, based on 1x EV/replacement value.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY15A

FY16A

FY17E

FY18E

Revenue

592.6

622.6

270.0

349.0

EBITDA

38.6

58.9

(26.1)

45.8

Core net profit

12.8

10.0

(100.8)

(25.0)

Core EPS (sen)

1.5

1.2

(11.7)

(2.9)

Core EPS growth (%)

(82.8)

(21.8)

nm

nm

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Core P/E (x)

31.0

39.7

nm

nm

P/BV (x)

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.2

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ROAE (%)

5.0

3.5

(27.0)

(8.1)

ROAA (%)

1.7

1.3

(13.9)

(4.2)

EV/EBITDA (x)

21.8

12.4

nm

11.3

Net debt/equity (%)

18.6

35.9

60.2

57.1

MACRO RESEARCH

MY: TRADERS' ALMANAC

COMEX GOLD – Upward Trajectory
by Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah

Technical Research

FBMKLCI plunged 8.35pts to 1,761.14 yesterday amid regional selloff. Heightened geopolitical tensions dampened market sentiment, causing losers to outpace gainers by 622 to 274. A total of 1.45b shares worth MYR1.65b changed hands. Following the rebound in Dow overnight, expect some bargain hunting in the local bourses. Sentiment, however, will remain lethargic on subdued corporate earnings. Investors may also turn risk-off ahead of key statistics in the US.

NEWS

Outside Malaysia:

U.S: Consumer confidence at second-highest level since 2000. A pickup in consumer confidence provides a basis for steady gains in spending, according to figures from the New York-based Conference Board. Confidence index rose to 122.9 (est. 120.7) from downwardly revised 120 in July. Gauge of consumer expectations rose to 104 from 103. Americans have had much to lift their moods: optimism about the economy, steady hiring and unemployment at a 16-year low, in addition to contained inflation, home-price appreciation and stock-market gains. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Lean inventory drives home-price gain in 20 U.S cities. Steady growth in home prices in 20 U.S. cities in June reflects a limited number of available houses for sale, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data. Nationwide, values posted their largest advance in three years. 20-city property values index increased 5.7% YoY (est. 5.6% gain) for a second month. National home-price gauge rose 5.8% YoY, the most since June 2014. Seasonally adjusted 20-city index advanced 0.1% MoM. A persistent inventory shortage for previously-owned homes is keeping prices elevated at a time housing demand is being sustained by a strong job market and still-low mortgage rates. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K.: House-price growth slows in line with weakening economy. House-price gains cooled in August after the economy slowed in the first half, Nationwide Building Society said. The 2.1% annual increase matched May's reading, which was the smallest since June 2013. On the month, prices fell 0.1% to an average of GBP210,495 (USD270,000). The figures are the latest sign that worries about the wider economy are spilling over into the housing market. Britain posted the weakest expansion among Group of Seven nations this year as faster inflation and uncertainty about the future outside of the European Union weighed on consumption and investment. (Source: Bloomberg)

S.Korea: President Moon Jae-In plans to spend a record KRW429t (USD380b) next year as the government seeks to boost welfare benefits and raise the number and quality of jobs. The 2018 budget proposal is 7.1% more than the initial plan for this year, the biggest gain since a jump in spending in 2009, when the economy was reeling from the global financial crisis. Welfare outlays will rise by the most on record, while spending for infrastructure, culture and sports will be reduced, according to a statement from the finance ministry. (Source: Bloomberg)

Other News:

Oil& Gas: Petronas signs 15-year deal to supply LNG to South Korean firm. Petronas's subsidiary Petronas LNG Ltd has inked a 15-year deal with South Korea-based S-OIL Corp to supply LNG. Petronas LNG is committed to delivering up to 700,000 tonnes of LNG per annum to S-OIL, starting from 2018. S-OIL will use the LNG as fuel for its new plant operations and as feedstock for hydrogen production. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Axiata: Said to be near USD1b purchase of Veon towers. Axiata Group is nearing a deal to acquire Veon Ltd's Pakistan wireless towers for around USD1b (MYR4.27b), people familiar with the matter said. Edotco S/B, Axiata's infrastructure arm, plans to announce an agreement this week, according to the people. The purchase of about 13,000 towers will make Edotco the biggest independent telecommunications tower operator in the South Asian nation. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

AirAsia: Seeks back-door listing in Indonesia. AirAsia is seeking a back-door listing of its Indonesian unit PT Insonesia AirAsia (IAA) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in Jakarta. The airline also revealed a plan yesterday to establish a holding company under which its airline operations in Malaysia and its various regional affiliates will come under its control, in line with its co-founder and group chief executive officer Tan Sri Tony Fernandes' pursuit of an Asean airline. AirAsia intends to inject 57.25% of IAA shares into Jakarta-listed logistics and warehousing firm PT Rimau Multi Putra Pratama TBK (RMPP) via a debt-and-share swap deal. The proposed transaction is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of this year, following which RMPP will be the new holding company of IAA. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

WCT Holdings: Bags MYR840m LRT works. WCT Holdings has bagged a contract worth MYR840m for the construction and completion works relating to the LRT3 from Bandar Utama to Johan Setia. The construction firm has also entered into an agreement to jointly develop the tract in the Tun Razak Exchange (TRX) it bought in October 2015. WCT's wholly-owned subsidiary WCT accepted the letter of acceptance (LoA) from Prasarana Malaysia , and the works to be completed within 33 months from the date of the LoA. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Nexgram: Drops MYR338m project. A unit of Nexgram Holdings, Intra Binaraya S/B (IBSB), has terminated a USD77m (MYR338.8m) job to construct the vaccine fill and finish plant and pharmaceutical and neutraceutical plant and research centre in Negri Sembilan. Nexgram had backed out from the job as engineering, procurement and construction main contractor, after Oriental Mace S/B (OMSB) was not able to furnish all relevant documents and information required to facilitate and complete the due diligence undertaken by IBSB. (Source: The Sun Daily)

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