Monday, September 19, 2016

Not A Clean Bill Of Health

Economic Research
19 September 2016
Singapore

Economic Highlights




Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) were unchanged on a y-o-y basis in August, rebounding from a 10.6% contraction the month before. Nevertheless, the recovery was from a low base in August 2015, and with the collapse of Hanjin Shipping Co. (68 ships, 7.8% of trans-Pacific freight) bound to cause disruption in the global shipping industry going forward, we feel that the exports are not out of the woods just yet. In addition, following August’s inertia, NODX has declined 5.3% over the first two months of 3Q, compared to a 0.3% advance in 2Q, pointing to a slowdown manufacturing activities. However, in light of a strong jump in re-exports, services sector is likely to help mitigate some of the downside. Overall, we estimate that GDP is likely to have slowed to 1.4% y-o-y in 3Q, from 2.1% in the previous quarter.

Economist:  Ng Kee Chou | +603 92802179


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