Monday, September 26, 2016

Port: MYR 1.7b plan to develop Perlis Inland Port. A MYR1.7b two-pronged plan to set up the Perlis Inland Port and develop the national rail cargo business is expected to be tabled soon by the transport ministry. The plan, to be implemented through an alliance between Asia Freight Rail Sdn Bhd (AFR) and






Berjaya Food | Strengthening long-term value
Kevin Wong







Ann Joo Resources | Protected by safeguard duties
Yen Ling Lee









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Regional Plantations | India cuts import duties
Chee Ting Ong









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Malaysia | “Holiday effect” like other data
Suhaimi Ilias







Singapore | Slower deflation
Suhaimi Ilias








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COMPANY RESEARCH





TP Revision





Berjaya Food (BFD MK)
by Kevin Wong





Share Price:
MYR1.80
Target Price:
MYR2.00
Recommendation:
Buy




Strengthening long-term value

We recently hosted a small group meeting for investors to meet with BFood’s management, Dato’ Francis Lee (CEO). We remain positive on Berjaya Starbucks’ growth potential which is backed by store expansion and sustained organic growth. Maintain BUY as valuation is undemanding. Our earnings forecasts are intact but we increase our TP to MYR2.00 (+20sen) as we roll forward our valuation base year to FY18.



FYE Apr (MYR m)
FY15A
FY16A
FY17E
FY18E
Revenue
376.8
554.4
600.5
671.0
EBITDA
214.2
79.7
85.6
97.3
Core net profit
25.7
21.3
24.9
32.9
Core FDEPS (sen)
6.8
5.6
6.6
8.6
Core FDEPS growth(%)
(2.4)
(17.6)
17.1
31.9
Net DPS (sen)
5.8
4.3
3.0
4.0
Core FD P/E (x)
26.5
32.2
27.5
20.8
P/BV (x)
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
Net dividend yield (%)
3.2
2.4
1.7
2.2
ROAE (%)
63.7
5.4
6.2
7.9
ROAA (%)
5.7
2.9
3.3
4.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
5.1
11.1
10.0
8.7
Net debt/equity (%)
39.8
49.3
46.9
42.7










TP Revision





Ann Joo Resources (AJR MK)
by Yen Ling Lee





Share Price:
MYR2.08
Target Price:
MYR2.50
Recommendation:
Buy




Protected by safeguard duties

The higher import duties of 13.42-13.90% for steel bars and wire rods would make import less competitive and enhance AJR’s earnings visibility. We lower our FY16 EPS forecast by 6% (due to rampant import in 3Q16) but raise FY17-18 EPS by 28%/31% (imputing for higher ASPs and sales volume). Given the much improved fundamentals, we raise our P/B target to 1.3x (+1SD to mean; from mean of 1x) which leads to a new TP of MYR2.50 (from MYR1.90). Maintain BUY.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
2,291.9
1,760.9
2,159.3
2,211.5
EBITDA
127.0
12.4
239.7
243.3
Core net profit
23.3
(135.5)
127.0
130.7
Core EPS (sen)
4.5
(25.9)
24.3
25.0
Core EPS growth (%)
90.2
nm
nm
2.9
Net DPS (sen)
1.0
0.0
9.7
10.0
Core P/E (x)
46.6
nm
8.6
8.3
P/BV (x)
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.0
Net dividend yield (%)
0.5
0.0
4.7
4.8
ROAE (%)
na
na
na
na
ROAA (%)
0.8
(5.2)
5.3
5.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
15.0
128.1
8.3
8.3
Net debt/equity (%)
126.2
133.6
90.4
86.5







SECTOR RESEARCH






Sector Note
by Chee Ting Ong


India cuts import duties





India’s unexpected import duty cuts on CPO and refiner palm oils are positive for palm oil prices as India is a large importer of palm oil at 9.3m MT in 2015. Nonetheless, the 4% dip in brent crude oil price and 2% weaker soybean price last Friday may counter the positive from India’s duty cut in the immediate term. Our 12M NEUTRAL sector call reiterated. Our BUYs in the region are FR, BAL, AALI, and LSIP.









MACRO RESEARCH






Economics Research
by Suhaimi Ilias


“Holiday effect” like other data





Index of leading economic indicators fell -2.5% YoY in Jul 2016 (June 2016: -0.3% YoY). The trend is similar to other economic data like external trade, industrial production index, distributive trade index, banking and monetary statistics as well as motor vehicle sales i.e. weaker in July 2016, affected by public holidays during the month.












Economics Research
by Suhaimi Ilias


Slower deflation





Headline deflation eased to -0.3% YoY in Aug 2016 (Jul 2016: -0.7% YoY) while core inflation sustained the pace at +1.0% YoY (Jul 2016: +1.0% YoY). The slower deflation was mainly due to slower drop in “Transport” costs. Our full-year headline and core inflation rate forecasts are -0.4% and +1.0% respectively.







NEWS


Outside Malaysia:

E.U: To continue U.S. trade talks, despite calls to stop. EU trade ministers told the European Commission to push on with U.S. trade negotiations, but ruled out reaching a deal under the Obama administration. “It ensued from the ministers' discussion that completing the negotiations with the U.S. by the end of the Obama administration is not realistic,” Slovak Economy Minister Peter Ziga, told a news conference after the ministers' meeting Sept. 23 in Bratislava, Slovakia. The EU and the U.S. have spent three years working on an accord to expand the world's biggest economic relationship by eliminating tariffs on goods, enlarging services markets, opening public procurement and bolstering regulatory cooperation. While Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have said the pact is a policy priority, European governments have become less enthusiastic as protests have grown and negotiations have faltered. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: Brexit leads three-quarters of Britain’s CEOs to consider moving. The U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union has left more than three-quarters of chief executive officers saying they would consider moving their headquarters or operations outside Britain, according to a survey of 100 business leaders by the accountancy firm KPMG. Some 72% of the CEOs surveyed said they voted “Remain” in the June 23 Brexit referendum, KPMG said in an e-mailed statement. While 69% said they’re confident Britain’s economy will continue to grow over the next year, and 73% expressed confidence their companies will grow, 76% are mulling some form of relocation. “CEOs are reacting to the prevailing uncertainty with contingency planning,” KPMG U.K. Chairman Simon Collins said in a statement. “Over half believe the U.K.’s ability to do business will be disrupted once we Brexit and therefore, for many CEOs, it is important that they plan different scenarios to hedge against future disruption.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Saudi Arabia: Central bank gives lenders USD 5.3b in deposits. Saudi Arabia’s central bank said it has taken measures to bolster “financial stability” in the Arab world’s biggest economy by giving lenders about SAR 20b (USD 5.3b) to ease borrowing costs. The funds are in the form of time deposits “on behalf of government entities,” the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, as the central bank is known, said in a statement. It’s also introducing seven-day and 28-day repurchase agreements, as part of its “supportive monetary policy.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Crude Oil: Saudis willing to act on ‘critical’ oil market, Algeria says. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has offered to cut its output to January levels, Algeria’s energy minister said as he prepared to host a meeting of OPEC producers later this week. Prices rebounded after tumbling 3.7% on Friday as Saudi Arabia signaled that the Algiers meeting will be consultative and unlikely to reach a firm decision. While Noureddine Boutarfa’s comments don’t change that, they suggest OPEC’s leading member may still be willing to work toward the group’s first production curbs since the organization let members produce at will in late 2014, causing prices to plunge. OPEC meets again in Vienna in November. Brent crude futures fell to USD 45.89/bbl a barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)





Other News:

Port: MYR 1.7b plan to develop Perlis Inland Port. A MYR1.7b two-pronged plan to set up the Perlis Inland Port and develop the national rail cargo business is expected to be tabled soon by the transport ministry. The plan, to be implemented through an alliance between Asia Freight Rail Sdn Bhd (AFR) and Keretapi Tanah Melayu (KTMB), was recently presented to Transport Minister. The 500-acre (202ha) inland port, to be located in Chuping Valley about 4.7km from Padang Besar, includes 375acres of supporting industrial development catering to 64-acre clusters of marine, rubber and wood-based industries. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

WZ Satu: Scraps plan to acquire SILK Highway. WZ Satu has aborted its plan to acquire SILK Highway for MYR368m. An agreement on the terms of the definitive agreement could not be reached with SILK Holdings. The termination of the head of agreement is not expected to have any material effect on its earnings per share and net assets per share for the financial year ending Aug 31, 2017. The termination could give another chance to Taliworks Corp, which has expressed interest in SILK Highway. (Source: The Sun Daily)

AirAsia: To appeal against hike in airport charges. AirAsia will appeal to the government to remove any increase in passenger service charge (PSC) rates, despite confirmation from the Transport Ministry last Friday. AirAsia is confident the government and Malaysian Aviation Commission (Mavcom) will put the nation’s long-term interests, the rakyat and their jobs, first. This increase in tax will be a direct burden to be shouldered by the people, making air travel more expensive and reducing overall demand for services offered by all airlines operating in Malaysia, crimping tourism, threatening jobs and hurting the economy. Malaysia will also lose its competitiveness as a regional low-cost hub. (Source: The Sun Daily)

Chin Hin: Plans Johor hub to house all its factories. Chin Hin Group intends to set up a building materials hub in Johor, under which it will relocate the factories of its various subsidiary companies into a single integrated complex. The facility will house the group’s autoclave aerated concrete (AAC) production line- which is under its unit Starken AAC Sdn Bhd together with its precast concrete wire mesh, metal roofing and ready-made concrete factories. The complex will be built of the group’s recently acquired 51-acre (20.64ha) piece of land in Kota Tinggi, Johor, which was purchased for MYR22m from TKW Capital Sdn Bhd. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Pestech: Consortium bags MYR34.7m electrical job in Kyrgyzstan. Pestech International and China's Shandong Power Equipment Co Ltd (SPECO) consortium has won a USD8.46m (MYR34.7m) electrical contract in Kyrgyzstan. The consortium Pestech & SPECO JV had received a notification of award from Severelectro JSC for the design, supply and installation of three substations under the Electricity Supply Accountability and Reliability Improvement project. The commencement and completion date of the project shall be determined upon signing of a contract agreement expected to be finalised in October 2016. (Source: The Sun Daily)


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