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Gamuda (GAM MK)
by Chew
Hann Wong
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Share
Price:
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MYR4.90
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Target
Price:
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MYR5.55
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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FY16 in-line,
growth to resume
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Gamuda’s FY7/16 net profit of MYR626m (-8%) was very much
in-line with our forecast and consensus. A positive surprise was the
super strong property sales in 4QFY16, from overseas projects. We make
no change to our FY17-18 earnings estimates, expecting growth to resume
in FY17 with +14% YoY net profit. We remain positive and reiterate the
stock as the sector’s top big-cap BUY. Our RNAV-based TP is MYR5.55
(unchanged).
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FYE Jul (MYR m)
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FY15A
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FY16A
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FY17E
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FY18E
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Revenue
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2,399.9
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2,121.9
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3,357.0
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3,889.8
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EBITDA
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638.0
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548.5
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764.4
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824.3
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Core net profit
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682.1
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626.1
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720.0
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761.0
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Core EPS (sen)
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28.9
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26.0
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29.8
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31.5
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Core EPS growth (%)
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(6.6)
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(10.2)
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14.5
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5.7
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Net DPS (sen)
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12.0
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12.0
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12.0
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12.0
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Core P/E (x)
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16.9
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18.9
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16.5
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15.6
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P/BV (x)
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1.8
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1.7
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1.6
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1.5
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Net dividend yield (%)
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2.4
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2.4
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2.4
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2.4
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ROAE (%)
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na
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na
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na
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na
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ROAA (%)
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5.8
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4.6
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4.9
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4.8
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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23.4
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29.0
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22.0
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19.9
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Net debt/equity (%)
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47.9
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55.2
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58.9
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50.0
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.50
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Target
Price:
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MYR1.60
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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1HFY17 core in
line
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2QFY1/17 headline earnings were materially skewed by the
one-off Berantai RSC effect. Excluding that, the results were in line
as the weaker QoQ performance has been expected. Our earnings forecasts
are unchanged, on anticipation of a weaker 2H vs. 1H. That said, the
earnings weakness is priced in. Monetising its gas field operations is
a long-term catalyst. Our SOP-based MYR1.60 TP excludes this potential.
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FYE Jan (MYR m)
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FY16A
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FY17A
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FY18E
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FY19E
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Revenue
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9,943.0
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10,184.0
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7,232.9
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7,633.5
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EBITDA
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3,120.5
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3,088.6
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2,254.8
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2,242.9
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Core net profit
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1,216.7
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1,009.4
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107.6
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143.3
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Core EPS (sen)
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20.3
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16.9
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1.8
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2.4
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Core EPS growth (%)
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13.6
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(16.8)
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(89.3)
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33.2
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Net DPS (sen)
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4.3
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1.4
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0.0
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0.0
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Core P/E (x)
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7.4
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8.9
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83.2
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62.5
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P/BV (x)
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0.7
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0.7
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0.7
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0.7
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Net dividend yield (%)
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2.9
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0.9
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0.0
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0.0
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ROAE (%)
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na
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na
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na
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na
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ROAA (%)
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4.0
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2.8
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0.3
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0.4
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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8.6
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8.2
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11.0
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10.8
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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Share
Price:
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MYR3.25
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Target
Price:
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MYR4.35
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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1HFY17 in line
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Yinson’s 1HFY1/17 results were in line, with a stronger
QoQ performance. The 15sen special DPS post sale of non-O&G
operations is a short-term catalyst. We do not rule out Yinson securing
a FPSO job(s) over the next 6 month, a re-rating prospect not imputed
in our model. Our TP is SOP-based.
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FYE Jan (MYR m)
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FY16A
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FY17A
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FY18E
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FY19E
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Revenue
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1,083.4
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986.0
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996.0
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1,286.2
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EBITDA
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225.4
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261.0
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288.5
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417.8
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Core net profit
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142.6
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173.1
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184.2
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220.0
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Core EPS (sen)
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13.8
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16.2
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17.3
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20.6
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Core EPS growth (%)
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114.7
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17.5
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6.4
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19.4
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Net DPS (sen)
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2.0
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1.9
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2.0
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2.4
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Core P/E (x)
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23.5
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20.0
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18.8
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15.8
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P/BV (x)
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2.3
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1.5
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1.4
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1.3
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Net dividend yield (%)
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0.6
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0.6
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0.6
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0.7
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ROAE (%)
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na
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na
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na
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na
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ROAA (%)
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6.1
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4.8
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3.5
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3.5
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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14.6
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17.8
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16.7
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11.5
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Net debt/equity (%)
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31.4
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51.9
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55.2
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51.2
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Yellen sees solid job growth, no fixed timetable for
rate rise. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers that the
U.S. will continue to add jobs at a solid rate, though the recent average
pace is probably higher than what’s sustainable over the long term and
would eventually cause the economy to overheat. The current course of the
economy calls for a gradual increase in interest rates, something that
doesn’t have a fixed timetable, Yellen said, speaking before the House
Financial Services Committee in an appearance focused mainly on
regulation. “If we allow the economy to overheat, we could be faced with
having to raise interest rates more rapidly than we would want,” she
said. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Orders for durable goods were little changed in
August and shipments of capital equipment declined for a fourth straight
month, indicating lingering weakness in manufacturing. The latest reading
for bookings of goods meant to last at least three years followed a 3.6%
advance the prior month that was less than initially reported, Commerce
Department data showed. Sales of non-defense capital goods excluding
aircraft, used in calculating gross domestic product, unexpectedly
dropped 0.4% last month. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Retail sales fell 1.1% MoM and 2.1% YoY in August
2016. Department store, supermarket sales fell 3.6% YoY according to
trade ministry figures. The latest figures underscore the challenge Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe faces in stoking economic growth and inflation. Even
with the unemployment rate at the lowest level in years, slow growth in
wages is limiting consumer spending, which accounts for about 60% of
Japan’s economy. (Source: Bloomberg)
Crude Oil: OPEC agrees on framework for first production
cut in eight years. OPEC agreed to the outline of a deal that will cut
production for the first time in eight years, surprising traders who had
expected a continuation of the pump- at-will policy the group adopted in
2014 at the instigation of Saudi Arabia. Oil jumped more than 5% in New York
after ministers said the group agreed to limit production to a range of
32.5 to 33 million barrels a day. The deal will reverberate beyond the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It will brighten the
prospects for the energy industry, from giants like Exxon Mobil Corp. to
small U.S. shale firms, and boost the economies of oil-rich countries
such as Russia and Saudi Arabia. For consumers, however, it will mean
higher prices at the pump. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Oil & Gas: Canada approves CAD36b Petronas-led LNG
project. The Canadian government has approved a proposed CAD36b
(MYR112.6b) liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in northern British
Columbia led by Petronas. The green light for the Pacific NorthWest LNG project
in northern British Columbia comes after a three-year wait for Petronas
and its partners, but analysts are sceptical about the project’s
prospects given low gas prices and cost-cutting at the Malaysian oil
giant. The approval came with 190 conditions that Petronas and partners
in China, India, Japan and Brunei would have to meet, after a review
found the project would have a significant environmental impact. (Source:
The Sun Daily)
Automotive: Proton shortlists five foreign bids for
partership. Proton Holdings has shortlisted five foreign candidates as
its potential strategic partner and hopes to select its collaborator
before the middle of next year. The national carmaker expects to make a
final decision before mid-2017 or even earlier. Proton has obtained
proposals from several interested parties and the company is at a stage
of reviewing and understanding the proposals. (Source: The Edge Financial
Daily)
Malaysia Airports: Not bidding for Jeddah airport
contract. Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB) has dropped plans to bid for
a contract to operate and manage the new terminal at Saudi Arabia’s King
Abdulaziz International Airport (KAIA) in Jeddah. MAHB did not submit a
bid for the contract. The airport operator decided to focus on its
operations at Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (SGIA) after a failed
attempt to overthrow Turkey’s elected government on July 15. MAHB has
also put on hold its decision to bid for a job at Taif Airport’s new
terminal, following its decision to withdraw from the bidding exercise
for the KAIA new terminal job. (Source: The Sun Daily)
Ancom: JV bags 10-year MRT advertising concession. Ancom
JV company Titanium Compass Sdn Bhd has been awarded a 10-year
advertising concession for MRT Sungai Buloh-Kajang Line stations and
trains. The JV company had received a letter of acceptance for its
proposal submitted on June 16, 2016, from Mass Rapid Transit Corp Sdn Bhd
(MRT Corp). The proposal was for the design, build, operate and transfer
advertising media equipment with the concession rights to sell and
display advertising on trains and transit facilities of the MRT Sungai
Buloh-Kajang Line under the Klang Valley MRT Project (KVMRT-SBK Line).
(Source: The Sun Daily)
Eversendai: Cancels planned strategic tie-up with PASB.
Eversendai Corp’s subsidiary Eversendai Constructions (M) Sdn Bhd (ECMSB)
has terminated a MoU for a strategic tie-up with facade specialist
contractor Puspajaya Aluminium Sdn Bhd (PASB). The MoU had a 12-month
validity period but could be rendered null and void earlier if a tender
was to be awarded to another company without the usage of PASB’s design.
The MoU has been terminated, effective Sept 28 as there is no material
development pertaining to the MoU. (Source: The Star)
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