Tuesday, November 11, 2014

AsianBondsOnline Newsletter (10 November 2014)



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News Highlights - Week of 3 - 7 November 2014

Indonesia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 3.0% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in 3Q14. The economic expansion in 3Q14 was driven by private consumption, government spending, and domestic investment on the expenditure side, and output growth in various sectors, including manufacturing, on the production side. The y-o-y GDP growth rate in 3Q14 was lower compared to 2Q14’s growth rate of 5.1%, while 3Q14’s q-o-q growth rate was up from 2.5% in 2Q14.

*     Indonesia’s consumer price inflation accelerated in October as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.8% y-o-y compared with September’s inflation of 4.5%. The Republic of Korea’s consumer price inflation climbed to 1.2% y-o-y in October from 1.1% in September. In the Philippines, consumer price inflation eased to 4.3% y-o-y in October, from 4.4% in September, due to lower annual increases in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.0%) brought about by an ample domestic food supply. Meanwhile, the CPI in Thailand rose 1.5% y-o-y in October, a slower annual rate of increase compared with the 1.8% gain in September. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased 3.2% y-o-y, while non-food and alcoholic beverage prices inched up 0.5%. The People’s Republic of China’s inflation for October was at 1.6% y-o-y, the same rate as in September.

*     Bank Negara Malaysia decided to maintain its overnight policy rate at 3.25% last week, and Bank of Thailand kept the policy rate steady at 2.00%. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that for the past 2 months it had injected a total of CNY769.5 billion into the banking system through a new monetary policy tool called the Medium-Term Lending Facility.  

*     Indonesia’s trade deficit narrowed to US$270 million in September from US$312 million in August. Exports grew 5.5% month-on-month (m-o-m) to US$15.3 billion, while imports climbed 5.1% m-o-m to US$15.5 billion in September. In Malaysia, exports rose 2.0% y-o-y to MYR64.5 billion in September. 

*     Fitch Ratings (Fitch) upgraded its long-term and local currency issuer default ratings for Viet Nam to BB– from B+, with a positive outlook. Fitch noted Viet Nam’s current policies to be supportive in achieving macroeconomic stability.

*     Retail sales growth in Hong Kong, China accelerated to 4.8% y-o-y in September from 3.5% in August.    

*     Last week, Viet Nam priced a US$1 billion 10-year bond at 4.8%, or a 243 basis point spread over comparable US Treasuries.  The offer is composed of a bond swap for its existing dollar bonds due 2016 (73% of the total offer) and a new issuance (27%). For the swap, the government accepted US$436.4 million out of its US$750 million 2016 bonds at a price of 107.

*     The People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced that it would sell government dim sum bonds worth CNY12 billion in Hong Kong, China starting on 17 November, it will be offered to retail and institutional investors.  

*     The yield curve shifted downward in the PRC, following news of a liquidity injection in banks and in Thailand, following moderating inflation.  Yields fell mostly in Indonesia (due to the lower trade deficit), the Republic of Korea, and Malaysia.  Yields changes were mostly mixed in the Philippines and rose in Hong Kong, China. The 2-year versus 10-year spread rose in the PRC, the Republic of Korea, Thailand and Viet Nam.

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