RHB | Thailand | 3Q GDP Growth Disappoints, 2014 Forecast Revised Lower To 0.9%

Economic Research	17 November 2014
Thailand
Economic Highlights
3Q GDP Growth Disappoints, 2014 Forecast Revised Lower To 0.9% Thailand’s real GDP inched up to 0.6% y-o-y in 3Q 2014, from +0.4% in the 2Q and compared with -0.5% registered in the 1Q. Despite the pick-up, the 3Q GDP figure was, however, way below our forecast of +1.8% and the consensus’ median estimate of +1.0%. Given the slower-than-expected growth for the first nine months of 2014, we revise downwards our real GDP forecast to 0.9% for the full year of 2014, from +1.2% previously and compared with +2.9% in 2013. Nevertheless, we maintain our 2015 forecast for economic growth to pick up to 4.0% in 2015, on the back of an expected recovery in domestic demand and a rebound in exports. Economist:  Peck Boon Soon  | +603 9280 2163