FW: RHB FIC Daily Snapshot 300118

 

 

RHB FIC DAILY SNAPSHOT
30/1/2018 8:05
			1-Day	3-Mth	6-Mth
	29-Jan-18	26-Jan-18	Chg (%)	Avg	Avg
Commodities
Brent Crude Apr 18	69.20	70.15	-1.35	64.75	59.60
Brent Crude May 18	68.94	69.80	-1.23	64.44	59.38
Brent Crude Jun 18	68.67	69.46	-1.14	64.19	59.23
WTI Crude Oil	65.56	66.14	-0.88	59.32	54.95
CPO Future Apr 18	2,519.00	2,484.00	1.41	2,595.19	2,658.70
CPO Future May 18	2,521.00	2,491.00	1.20	2,610.10	2,668.32
CPO Future Jun 18	2,518.00	2,492.00	1.04	2,615.68	2,674.19
GOLD spot US$/Oz	1,340.31	1,349.70	-0.70	1,292.90	1,293.07
DJ-UBS Metals Subindex	139.11	138.94	0.12	132.40	129.86
DJ-UBS Agriculture Subindex	48.14	47.79	0.73	47.77	48.39
Forex
USD/MYR	3.8818	3.8705	0.29	4.0734	4.1559
GBP/USD	1.4074	1.4160	-0.61	1.3470	1.3313
EUR/USD	1.2383	1.2427	-0.35	1.1914	1.1873
USD/JPY	108.96	108.58	0.35	112.29	111.70
AUD/USD	0.8094	0.8110	-0.20	0.7739	0.7817
USD/SGD	1.3103	1.3074	0.22	1.3419	1.3493
USD/HKD	7.8175	7.8181	-0.01	7.8120	7.8130
USD/KRW	1,065.52	1,064.01	0.14	1,085.74	1,108.88
USD/CNY	6.3405	6.3283	0.19	6.5568	6.5882
USD/THB	31.440	31.342	0.31	32.520	32.861
USD/IDR	13,366	13,306	0.45	13,492	13,439
USD/PHP	51.216	50.920	0.58	50.622	50.855
USD/INR	63.5888	63.5425	0.07	64.2889	64.3754
Forex (vs MYR)
USD/MYR	3.8818	3.8705	0.29	4.0734	4.1559
GBP/MYR	5.4768	5.5191	-0.77	5.4808	5.5298
EUR/MYR	4.8186	4.8205	-0.04	4.8490	4.9312
AUD/MYR	3.1403	3.1276	0.41	3.1507	3.2478
SGD/MYR	2.9646	2.9622	0.08	3.0341	3.0789
Equity Indices
FBM KLCI	1,870.52	1,853.92	0.90	1,765.62	1,766.04
DJIA	26,439.48	26,616.71	-0.67	24,548.52	23,424.31
S&P 500	2,853.53	2,872.87	-0.67	2,674.84	2,585.45
NASDAQ	7,466.51	7,505.77	-0.52	6,967.64	6,697.66
			1-Day	3-Mth	6-Mth
Government Bonds	29-Jan-18	26-Jan-18	Chg (bps)	Avg	Avg
MGS 2/21 (3y)	3.37	3.37	0.40	3.40	3.38
MGS 03/22 (5y)	3.60	3.60	0.60	3.63	3.61
MGS 09/24 (7y)	3.92	3.90	1.40	3.92	3.89
MGS 11/27 (10y)	3.92	3.92	0.70	3.95	3.94
MGS 04/33 (15y)	4.40	4.40	-0.70	4.47	4.41
MGS 04/37 (20y)	4.62	4.61	0.30	4.64	4.59
MGS 03/46 (30y)	4.86	4.86	0.20	4.89	4.87
UST 2YR	2.12	2.12	0.00	1.84	1.63
UST 5YR	2.49	2.47	2.01	2.19	2.02
UST 10YR	2.69	2.66	3.37	2.44	2.35
UST 30YR	2.94	2.91	3.07	2.81	2.81
UK 2YR	0.62	0.63	-0.80	0.50	0.41
UK 10YR	1.45	1.44	0.90	1.28	1.24
GE 2YR	-0.53	-0.54	1.90	-0.67	-0.69
GE 10YR	0.69	0.63	6.50	0.42	0.42
JGB 2YR	-0.12	-0.13	0.40	-0.15	-0.14
JGB 10YR	0.09	0.08	1.10	0.05	0.05
AU 2YR	2.08	2.07	0.80	1.90	1.89
AU 10YR	2.85	2.85	0.60	2.64	2.68
SGS 2YR	1.49	1.46	3.60	1.49	1.40
SGS 10YR	2.19	2.12	6.43	2.09	2.10
HK 2YR	1.32	1.32	0.00	1.26	1.05
HK 10YR	2.03	2.03	0.00	1.90	1.74
SK 2YR	2.22	2.15	6.90	2.07	1.91
SK 10YR	2.75	2.68	7.00	2.54	2.44
CH 3YR	3.66	3.65	0.90	3.73	3.65
CH 10YR	3.95	3.95	0.10	3.94	3.81
TH 2YR	1.35	1.37	-2.10	1.44	1.42
TH 10YR	2.34	2.31	3.00	2.35	2.33
ID 2YR	5.43	5.40	2.50	5.68	5.91
ID 10YR	6.31	6.22	9.20	6.45	6.56
PH 2YR	2.58	2.64	-6.00	2.94	2.88
PH 10YR	4.92	4.90	2.90	4.86	4.67
IN 2YR	7.10	7.06	4.50	6.70	6.55
IN 10YR	7.44	7.31	13.50	7.14	6.88
Malaysia
MYR Steadies After Capping Five Weeks of Gains.
Malaysian Palm Oil Prices Seen Averaging MYR2,659/T in 2018.
Global
Treasuries Limit Losses as 10-Year Yield Dips Back Below 2.70%.
Fed Is Likely to Hold Rates Steady At Yellen's Final Meeting.
Treasury Sees USD441bn Net Borrowing Jan.-Mar. vs Prior Est. USD512bn.
Offshore Yuan Falls Most in 3 Weeks as USD Strengthens.
Across G-7 Economies, Jobs Abound While Wage Gains Stay Elusive.

 

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FW: Fixed Income Daily Pulse - 29 January 2018

 

 

Good Evening,
Today’s trade recap by our trading desk:-
·         The local bond market started the week in lackluster mode as most market participants took to the sidelines in this short trading week. Morning flows were rather tepid with trades focused on specific short-end stocks like MGS 3/19 and GII 5/18. Midday however saw some selling pressure on the belly of the curve after UST 10Y breaking 2.70%. Yields ticked up 2-3bps with trading activities focused on key benchmark stocks. We also note that there were some buying interest lately on MGS 6/28; which is due to replace MGS 11/27 as 10Y benchmark in May.   ·         Key risk event for the week falls on US FOMC January meeting this Thursday where the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged. Unless the Fed surprises global markets this week, expect market activity to remain subdued for the remaining 2 trading days of the week.
Malaysia Government Bonds Benchmark Issues MGS Closing Level (%) Change (bp) Volume (RM m) 3-yr 3.370 - - 5-yr 3.615 - 176 7-yr 3.955 +3.5 254 10-yr 3.945 +2.0 103 15-yr 4.410 +2.0 25 20-yr 4.630 +2.0 39 30-yr 4.900 - - Source: BondStream, AmBank	Interest Rate Swap Closing Rates IRS Closing Yield (%) Change (bp) 1-yr 3.750 5.5 3-yr 3.815 0.0 5-yr 3.905 1.0 7-yr 4.010 1.5 10-yr 4.140 3.0 Source: Bloomberg, AmBank

 

Best regards,

Fixed Income Research & Strategy

AmBank Research, AmBank (M) Berhad

+603 2036 2292 (DL) +03 2031 7218 (Fax)

Level 15, Bangunan AmBank Group, 55 Jalan Raja Chulan, 50200 Kuala Lumpur

 

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FW: Indonesia's CPI Outlook January 2018

 

 

Monthly Inflation:” Fueled by rising foodstuffs prices”

 

CPI Review

Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2017 increased due to the rising prices of foodstuffs, cigarette, and transportation tariff. Monthly inflation reached 0.71% m-o-m, higher from 0.20% m-o-m in the preceding month. Based component, the inflation was posted by the foodstuffs component increased by 2.26% m-o-m, the transportation, communication, and financial services component experienced rose by 0.75% m-o-m, and the prepared food component rose by 0.30% m-o-m. Furthermore, the clothing component rose by 0.13% m-o-m and the housing component experienced rose by 0.17% compared to preceding month. Moreover, the medical care component increased by 0.18% m-o-m and the education component increased by 0.07% m-o-m.

 

Inflation in the foodstuffs component in December 2017 mainly stemmed from higher prices of rice, fish, eggs, chicken meat, red pepper, tomato, chili, salted fish, spinach, green mustard, and carrots. We believe the price increase in these products were mainly due to

a.   Lower domestic supply

b.   Higher domestic demand

 

Meanwhile, inflation in the transportation, communication, and financial services component in December 2017 came primarily from higher prices of air freight tariff, train fares, inter-city transportation tariff, and gasoline. Inflation in the prepared foods component in December 2017 mainly stemmed from higher prices of rice with meals, cigarette, white cigarette, and filter cigarette.

 

Furthermore, inflation in the education, recreation and sports component in December 2017 still mainly stemmed from higher prices of courses/training sub-sector. Inflation in the clothing component in December 2017 still came primarily from higher prices of man clothing sub-sector.

 

Meantime, inflation in the housing component in December 2017 came primarily from higher prices of household fuel and servant wages. Inflation in the medical care component in November 2017 came primarily from higher price of medicines sub-sector.

 

On a yearly basis, inflation remains in check with the upward trend still intact, as the inflation slightly increased to 3.61% y-o-y in December 2017 compare 3.30% y-o-y in the previous month. Furthermore, year to date inflation in January–December 2017 reached 3.61% higher than 3.02% for the same time frame in 2016.

 

 

CPI Outlook

We expect inflationary pressures still increase in January 2018. This is mainly fueled by rising foodstuffs prices. The foodstuffs prices experience increase, such as rice, red pepper, cayenne pepper, chicken meat, beef, egg, fish, salted fish, wheat flour, and milk. In addition, the increase in cigarette excise tax, toll tariff, non subsidized fuel prices, and car prices were also add to inflationary pressure this month. Meanwhile, deflationary pressure is caused by the decrease in airplane fares, train fares, hotel rates, and inter-city transportation tariff. Based on these factors, we expect the consumer price index in January 2018 will reach 0.80% m-o-m, higher than 0.71% m-o-m in December 2017. However, we expect the yearly inflation rate in January 2018 will decrease to 3.43% y-o-y from 3.61% y-o-y in December 2017. Looking ahead, we also expect inflation may reach 3.50% y-o-y by the end of 2018.

 

Meanwhile, we also expect core inflationary pressures also increase in January 2018. The pressure comes from the increase in price of cigarette excise tax, car prices, toll road tariffs, housing rent, housing contract, and servant wages. We expect core inflation in January 2018 may reach 0.42% m-o-m higher than 0.13% m-o-m in December 2017. Nevertheless, we expect the yearly core inflation in January 2018 will decrease to 2.81% y-o-y from 2.95% y-o-y in the previous month. Forward looking, we also expect core inflation may reach 3.00% by the end of 2018.

 

 

Regards,

 

Juniman

Chief Economist

PT Bank Maybank Indonesia Tbk

Sentral Senayan III, 8th Floor

Jl. Asia Afrika No. 8, Gelora Bung Karno

Jakarta 10270, Indonesia

Tel  : +62 21 29228888 Ext.29682

Fax  : +62 21 29228849

Juniman@maybank.co.id

 

 

 

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