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Felda Global
Ventures | Weak 2016
Chee Ting Ong
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Share
Price:
|
MYR4.97
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR5.35
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
FY16 earnings
within expectations
|
|
Where CIMB has fared well is in sustaining loan growth
momentum and managing NIM compression and costs. However, its FY17
guidance points to still elevated credit cost, at least in 1H17. Our
net profit forecasts are raised by 9% on average and our FY17 ROE
estimate of 9.3% is just slightly behind management’s target of 9.5%.
We raise dividend payout ratio to 50% from 42%; potential yield of 4.9%
in FY17 would provide support to the share price. HOLD maintained with
a higher TP of MYR5.35.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Operating income
|
15,395.8
|
16,065.3
|
16,828.4
|
17,567.9
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
6,146.8
|
7,413.6
|
7,962.1
|
8,432.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
3,411.2
|
3,414.4
|
4,294.7
|
4,685.4
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
0.40
|
0.39
|
0.48
|
0.53
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
5.6
|
(2.4)
|
23.2
|
9.1
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.14
|
0.20
|
0.24
|
0.26
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
12.3
|
12.6
|
10.3
|
9.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.8
|
4.0
|
4.8
|
5.2
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
4.87
|
5.24
|
5.37
|
5.64
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.7
|
7.9
|
9.3
|
9.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.91
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.30
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FY16 ahead of
estimates
|
|
Impairments aside, FY16 core net loss was 47%/59% below
ours/ consensus forecasts, on rebound in 4Q16 earnings. Our FY17-18
forecasts are unchanged. WSC is on track to execute the Nord Stream 2
(NS2) project, which will anchor earnings over the next 3 years.
Valuations are inexpensive. Our MYR1.30 TP is pegged to 12x 2018 PER
(unchanged).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,839.5
|
1,276.6
|
2,150.0
|
2,198.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
143.3
|
53.6
|
233.8
|
241.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
22.7
|
(23.3)
|
77.2
|
83.5
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.9
|
(3.0)
|
10.0
|
10.8
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(84.4)
|
nm
|
nm
|
8.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
3.0
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.8
|
nm
|
9.1
|
8.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.3
|
0.6
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
0.9
|
(23.2)
|
9.4
|
9.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.8
|
(0.8)
|
2.7
|
2.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
12.2
|
30.4
|
7.2
|
6.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
73.6
|
104.7
|
91.7
|
72.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR6.48
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR7.52
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The underlying
is great
|
|
FY16 results met expectations despite heaps of accounting
adjustments and one-off cost spikes. Management has kitchen sunk many
items and things are cleaner and more transparent now. FY17 will enjoy
strong demand growth and utilisation rates will sail along the ‘sweet
spot’ whereby any incremental growth translates to significant
operating leverage. Maintain BUY, with a slight increase in our
DCF-based TP by 6 sen to MYR7.52 (WACC: 9.72%, terminal growth: 2%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
3,871.0
|
4,172.8
|
4,518.7
|
4,833.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,434.1
|
1,488.9
|
1,659.1
|
1,772.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
(25.9)
|
35.8
|
374.2
|
408.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
(1.6)
|
2.2
|
22.6
|
24.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
nm
|
nm
|
946.6
|
9.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
3.1
|
1.7
|
8.3
|
9.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
nm
|
300.7
|
28.7
|
26.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
1.6
|
0.8
|
4.9
|
5.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
(0.1)
|
0.2
|
1.8
|
2.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.4
|
9.4
|
8.7
|
7.7
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
52.2
|
46.1
|
41.6
|
31.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR8.70
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR8.90
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A good year
|
|
FY16 results were ahead due to a substantial tax credit,
while the underlying operational trends were generally healthy. The
short-term trade (arising from USD-strength) we highlighted previously
has played out, and risk-reward now appears balanced in our view.
Maintain HOLD with a higher MYR8.90 TP as we raise our earnings
forecasts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
682.4
|
766.9
|
880.3
|
991.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
263.9
|
292.6
|
334.5
|
376.6
|
|
Core net profit
|
171.2
|
246.6
|
235.2
|
258.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
29.8
|
42.8
|
40.7
|
44.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
34.0
|
43.5
|
(4.9)
|
9.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
80.2
|
30.6
|
10.2
|
11.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
29.2
|
20.4
|
21.4
|
19.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
9.2
|
3.5
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
21.0
|
19.1
|
10.6
|
11.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.4
|
9.2
|
8.4
|
8.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
16.2
|
14.2
|
14.3
|
12.1
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chi Wei Tan
|
|
|
|
Syairah Malek
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.88
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.60
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weak 2016
|
|
FGV suffered core losses for a second consecutive year.
This time, its sugar division dragged earnings too. 2017 earnings
outlook is sensitive towards CPO price direction as its all-in cost of
production remains high at estimated MYR2,680/t in 2016. Maintain HOLD
on FGV with a revised TP of MYR1.60 (previously MYR1.78) on unchanged
1x trailing P/BV. We reckon its stock price will defy near term
fundamentals ahead of the upcoming general elections.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
15,558.8
|
17,282.6
|
17,785.1
|
17,943.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,180.8
|
1,073.1
|
890.2
|
993.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
(100.2)
|
(170.6)
|
68.1
|
121.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
(2.7)
|
(4.7)
|
1.9
|
3.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
77.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
1.1
|
2.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
nm
|
nm
|
100.7
|
56.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.1
|
0.0
|
0.6
|
1.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
1.2
|
2.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
(0.5)
|
(0.8)
|
0.3
|
0.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
10.0
|
11.3
|
15.9
|
14.1
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
36.7
|
49.2
|
57.6
|
54.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR75.70
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR78.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q16: Higher
A&P and raw material costs
|
|
4Q16 results fell short mainly due to higher-than-expected
raw material costs and A&P expenses (earlier timing of CNY). Moving
forward, we expect the positive revenue momentum to continue for its
export sales (eg. ready-to-drink, confectionary and coffee). On raw
material costs, while we now see some uptick, we sense that there is
room for efficiency gains or that NESZ could pass it through to
consumers. To recall that it has largely maintained its prices since
2Q15.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
4,838.0
|
5,063.5
|
5,367.3
|
5,743.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
886.0
|
932.0
|
961.0
|
1,014.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
588.5
|
598.4
|
635.9
|
676.7
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
251.0
|
255.2
|
271.2
|
288.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
6.9
|
1.7
|
6.3
|
6.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
260.0
|
270.0
|
269.5
|
286.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.2
|
29.7
|
27.9
|
26.2
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
25.1
|
27.4
|
27.3
|
27.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.4
|
3.6
|
3.6
|
3.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
79.5
|
94.0
|
98.0
|
103.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
24.6
|
24.0
|
24.6
|
24.7
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
19.8
|
19.9
|
18.7
|
17.7
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
47.4
|
39.1
|
31.0
|
26.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.45
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.08
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3QFY17: Slight
shortfall
|
|
3QFY3/17’s slight shortfall could be due to
higher-than-expected production and processing costs for both its
marine and livestock divisions. We trim our earnings forecasts by 1-2%
for FY17-19. Consequently, our DCF-TP is lowered to MYR4.08 (-2sen,
7.3% WACC, 2.0% long-term growth). While outlook of egg prices remain
weak, better surimi prices moving forward could provide some buffer.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,707.8
|
2,853.9
|
3,036.2
|
3,230.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
340.9
|
368.1
|
391.3
|
435.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
183.1
|
192.1
|
198.1
|
222.8
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
14.7
|
15.4
|
15.9
|
17.9
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
14.5
|
4.9
|
3.2
|
12.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
7.5
|
5.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.3
|
28.9
|
28.0
|
24.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
3.9
|
3.5
|
3.2
|
3.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
1.2
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
14.1
|
12.7
|
11.9
|
12.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
7.6
|
7.1
|
6.7
|
7.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
16.4
|
16.5
|
16.4
|
15.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
37.1
|
31.3
|
38.0
|
39.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.66
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.75
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Still lacks
clear catalysts
|
|
FY16 core net loss came in at MYR49m, lower than
our/consensus’ forecasts of MYR63m, mainly due to a surprise incentive
from Nissan Japan. We keep FY17/18 net profit forecasts, expecting
smaller losses in FY17 before returning to small profits in FY18. Nonetheless,
headwinds persist in the forms of slow car sales and the weak MYR. Our
TP is lowered to MYR1.75 (-7%) as we roll forward valuation base year
to FY17 on a lower trailing NTA peg of 0.4x (-1SD of LT mean) from
0.45x. HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
5,716.7
|
5,510.7
|
5,321.5
|
5,554.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
307.2
|
158.9
|
167.3
|
202.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
76.5
|
(48.9)
|
(26.9)
|
2.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.7
|
(7.5)
|
(4.1)
|
0.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
11.5
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
5.0
|
2.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
14.2
|
nm
|
nm
|
475.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.0
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
2.7
|
(1.9)
|
(0.9)
|
0.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.5
|
(0.9)
|
(0.5)
|
0.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.1
|
15.9
|
15.0
|
12.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
37.7
|
45.9
|
48.7
|
47.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR5.81
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR6.10
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hit by higher
amortisation
|
|
Litrak’s 3QFY3/17 net profit of MYR51m was below our
estimates largely due to higher amortisation charge of highway
development expenditure. Litrak declared a 2nd interim DPS of 15sen,
bringing its total DPS to 25sen for FY17 YTD, short of our 30sen forecast
for FY17. Not expecting a final DPS, we lower our FY17 DPS estimate to
25sen (from 30sen) and forward years to 25sen p.a. too. No change to
our earnings, RNAV-TP of MYR6.10.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
380.7
|
416.2
|
555.5
|
557.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
321.6
|
353.3
|
480.0
|
474.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
137.5
|
171.8
|
260.5
|
268.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
26.7
|
33.0
|
49.8
|
51.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
2.2
|
23.7
|
51.0
|
2.9
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
20.0
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
25.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
21.8
|
17.6
|
11.7
|
11.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.6
|
5.0
|
4.1
|
3.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.4
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
4.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.2
|
7.7
|
11.1
|
10.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.0
|
10.0
|
7.8
|
7.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
177.5
|
143.6
|
98.5
|
61.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chew Hann Wong
|
|
|
|
Adrian Wong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.48
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.44
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expect flat
sales growth
|
|
After deducting the MYR36.8m distribution to perpetual
sukuk holders, 2016 core net profit of MYR320m (-6% YoY) was in-line
with our expectations but below consensus. 2016 property sales were
also within expectations. Amid a still challenging property market
outlook, management expects 2017 sales to be flat at MYR1.8b. We
fine-tune our earnings forecasts by -0.3% to +1.4%. Our RNAV-TP is
largely unchanged at MYR1.44 (-3 sen) based on an unchanged 0.6x
P/RNAV. Maintain HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
3,108.5
|
2,957.6
|
2,980.0
|
3,061.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
527.9
|
508.8
|
585.2
|
646.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
338.8
|
319.5
|
325.0
|
370.0
|
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
14.1
|
13.3
|
13.5
|
15.4
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
(23.5)
|
(5.7)
|
1.7
|
13.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
5.4
|
6.1
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
10.5
|
11.2
|
11.0
|
9.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.4
|
4.4
|
3.6
|
4.2
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.7
|
5.0
|
4.8
|
5.1
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.9
|
6.9
|
6.1
|
5.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
3.7
|
2.0
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.53
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.58
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A year of
kitchen sinking
|
|
4Q16 registered a core net loss due to slower construction
progress in the Middle East and escalating costs at the O&G
division. We lower FY17/18 earnings after updating for FY16 numbers and
tweaking for works recognition. We continue to peg TP to an unchanged
0.5x P/BV (-1SD) to reflect its high gearing and receivables, leading
to a lower TP of MYR0.58 (-9%). Rerating catalysts for the stock would
hinge on its earnings recovery and delivery of its lift boats to ease
its balance sheet burden.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,788.8
|
1,574.6
|
1,872.8
|
1,745.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
124.3
|
(182.1)
|
176.7
|
175.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
47.5
|
(80.6)
|
74.9
|
73.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
6.1
|
(10.4)
|
9.7
|
9.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
100.0
|
nm
|
nm
|
(2.2)
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
8.6
|
nm
|
5.5
|
5.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.9
|
0.0
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
5.5
|
(25.6)
|
8.1
|
7.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.0
|
(2.8)
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
10.2
|
nm
|
6.9
|
6.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
58.9
|
87.0
|
79.8
|
67.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chew Hann Wong
|
|
|
|
Adrian Wong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.72
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.72
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FY16 results a
miss
|
|
Impairments aside, FY16 fell short on setback (losses at
associates & FPSO ops) to 4Q16. With no FPSO job win expectation in
2017 as a catalyst, execution (to achieve 1st oil for FPSO Kraken by
2Q17, earnings) is key in 2017. Share price has performed well (+21%
YTD), partially factoring in the earlier risk-reward opportunities.
BArmada is fully valued for now, relative to our MYR0.72 SOP-TP. We
advocate investors to take profit and switch to Yinson (YNS MK; BUY;
TP: MYR4.35).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,179.7
|
1,416.6
|
1,918.9
|
2,995.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,101.7
|
552.6
|
1,116.5
|
1,561.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
360.7
|
(83.3)
|
269.8
|
679.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
6.1
|
(1.4)
|
4.6
|
11.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(22.2)
|
nm
|
nm
|
151.7
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.8
|
nm
|
15.8
|
6.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.6
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
(3.4)
|
(29.2)
|
4.6
|
10.8
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.2
|
(0.4)
|
1.2
|
3.2
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
11.4
|
24.6
|
12.3
|
8.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
89.1
|
176.3
|
159.2
|
131.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ta Ann (TAH MK)
by Chee
Ting Ong
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.88
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.25
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Missing timber
support
|
|
Ta Ann’s core results were below expectations as the
timber division disappointed on lower log sales affected by reduced log
export quota since 3Q16. For 2017, its plantation division will
continue to be the main earnings driver. Maintain HOLD with a new TP of
MYR4.25 (previously MYR4.06) on unchanged 15x 2017 PER, its 5-year
historical mean, post our slight FY17 earnings upgrade.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,048.3
|
1,147.1
|
997.7
|
1,048.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
328.2
|
277.6
|
277.6
|
313.6
|
|
Core net profit
|
177.3
|
121.6
|
125.9
|
138.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
39.9
|
27.3
|
28.3
|
31.0
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
74.7
|
(31.4)
|
3.5
|
9.7
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
16.7
|
10.0
|
12.7
|
14.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
9.7
|
14.2
|
13.7
|
12.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.3
|
2.6
|
3.3
|
3.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
16.7
|
9.9
|
9.6
|
9.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
9.2
|
6.0
|
5.8
|
6.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.2
|
6.8
|
7.5
|
6.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
11.2
|
5.5
|
20.5
|
11.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chee Ting Ong
|
|
|
|
Amirah Azmi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.29
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.13
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Sell
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FY16: Missed
estimates
|
|
Impairment aside, FY16 core earnings came in below
ours/consensus expectations, on setback to 4Q16 results (associates
& higher expenses). That aside, the OSV market will remain tough
over the next 12 months. Optimising costs and OSV utilisation, and
preserving cash flows remain key in 2017. Addressing its MYR75m MTNs
due in 2017/18 is also a priority. Valuations are expensive vis-à-vis
its peers. Our TP is pegged to 12x 2018 PER (unchanged).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
350.2
|
247.5
|
246.0
|
282.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
71.9
|
22.2
|
44.2
|
54.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
63.1
|
(90.4)
|
0.5
|
9.8
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
6.8
|
(9.8)
|
0.1
|
1.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
5.9
|
nm
|
nm
|
1,824.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
4.3
|
nm
|
535.4
|
27.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
5.2
|
(17.0)
|
0.1
|
1.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.9
|
(8.3)
|
0.1
|
1.0
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.5
|
15.6
|
7.9
|
5.8
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
8.2
|
13.8
|
10.0
|
6.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quicker growth
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Money supply (M3) growth picked up for the second
consecutive month in Jan 2017 to +4.4% YoY (Dec 2016: +3.0% YoY) as
faster total loans and deposit growth mitigated liquidity concerns
over foreign net bond selling of Malaysian bonds.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Seeking reversal point
by Tee
Sze Chiah
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FBMKLCI was unable to hold onto its early gains. At
day’s end, the benchmark closed relatively unchanged, easing 0.07pts
to settle at 1,693.77. Broader market continued to plague by negative
sentiment with losers outpacing gainers by 625 to 317. Trading volume
of 2.42b worth MYR2.87b was recorded yesterday. Despite still
relatively weak, we opine that there is a possibility that the
benchmark index could bounce higher today, though upside could be
capped around 1,705.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Consumer Confidence index advanced to 114.8 in Feb
2016, the highest since July 2001, from a revised 111.6 in January.
Present conditions gauge increased to 133.4, the highest since July 2007,
from 130. Measure of consumer expectations for the next six months rose
to 102.4 from 99.3. The increase in the Conference Board’s measure was
the third in the four months since Donald Trump was elected president.
(Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Fed officials signal more willingness to consider
March hike. Two influential Federal Reserve officials signaled a greater
willingness to tighten monetary policy, perhaps as soon as next month.
New York Fed President William Dudley, in an interview, said the case for
tightening had become “a lot more compelling” in recent months. “The
risks to the outlook are now starting to tilt to the upside,” he said.
His remarks followed comments from San Francisco Fed chief John Williams,
who said he expects an interest-rate increase will receive “serious
consideration” at the March 14-15 meeting of the policy-making Federal
Open Market Committee. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K: Consumer confidence weakened on February as the
pound’s slide, rising prices and weak pay growth began to weigh on the
powerhouse of Britain’s economy. GfK’s household-sentiment index fell in
February, remaining below zero for a 10th month, and the appetite for
making major purchases decreased, indicating that Britons may be starting
to rein in spending. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Industrial production fell for the first time in
six months in January, raising questions about the sustainability of
Japan’s export-driven growth in the second half of 2016. Industrial
production fell 0.8% in January from a month earlier. The unexpected
weakness in industrial output points to the risk of depending on external
demand for recent economic growth. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: Business investment shows modest pickup in 4th
quarter. Capital expenditure by Japanese companies picked up in the
fourth quarter of 2016, capping a year that saw a slowdown in the growth
of corporate spending, finance ministry data show. Capital expenditure
rose 3.8% YoY in the fourth quarter of 2016. Sales increased 2% YoY.
These figures will be used to revise the fourth quarter gross domestic
product data. The preliminary reading for GDP showed 1.0% annualized
growth. (Source: Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
Petronas: Saudi Aramco to take 50% stake in Petronas'
Rapid project. Saudi Arabian Oil Co (Saudi Aramco) is taking up a 50%
stake in Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated
Development (Rapid) project for USD7b (MYR31b) cash. Petronas Tuesday
signed a share purchase agreement with Saudi Aramco for the stake in the
refinery and cracker project, which will see Saudi Aramco supply up to
70% of the crude feedstock requirements of the refinery. Petronas,
meanwhile, will supply natural gas, power and other utilities. Upon
completion of the transaction, Petronas and Saudi Aramco will hold equal
ownership in selected ventures and assets of the Rapid project. (Source:
The Sun Daily)
Prasarana: Eyes Saudi Rail-related Project Worth Over
SAR807m. The group will tender for a railway-related project in Saudi
Arabia worth over SAR807m (SAR1 = MYR1.19) in the next two months. Its
President/Group Chief Executive Officer, Datuk Seri Azmi Abdul Aziz, said
the tender would entail providing operations and maintenance support for
the project."Currently, the Saudi government has commissioned that
the railways be built in several cities. This is one of them," he
told reporters after the signing of the memorandum of understanding (MOU)
between Prasarana and Saudi Investment Group and Marketing Co Ltd
(SIGMAC) yesterday. Under the MOU, both companies would jointly bid for
various public transportation projects and share their practices and
human capital in the transportation industry. (Source: The Edge Financial
Daily)
PPB: Reports better fourth quarter results, thanks to
Wilmar. Net profit for 4Q16 rose 45% to MYR496.03m from MYR341.02m a year
ago, mainly due to higher profit contribution from associate Wilmar
International Ltd, which cushioned lower results recorded by most of the
group’s segments. Its revenue of MYR1.02b in 4Q16 was 6% lower than the
MYR1.09b in 4QFY15 negated by reduced revenues from the other segments.
For FY16, PPB’s net profit fell marginally by 0.6% to MYR1.04b from
MYR1.05b a year ago. PPB said the operating environment in 2017 is
expected to be challenging for the group’s core businesses. Intense
competition will continue in the flour markets in Malaysia, Indonesia and
Vietnam, while the feed market in Malaysia will be uncertain with the
rapidly evolving industry landscape. (Source: The Sun Daily)
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