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Share
Price:
|
MYR7.50
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR7.60
|
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Recommendation:
|
Hold
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Better earnings
ahead
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Substantially weaker 3Q16 results were below expectations
on weakness across all segments, particularly Petroleum and Offshore.
However, we think earnings could pick up again in 4Q16 on the seasonal
strength in petroleum tanker rate and additional earnings from new
assets. We lower our 2016-18 EPS forecasts by 8%/8%/5% but maintain our
SOP-based TP of MYR7.60 as the earnings revision has just a small
impact to our SOP. Maintain HOLD.
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|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
9,296.3
|
10,908.4
|
10,107.0
|
9,664.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
3,024.0
|
3,913.2
|
4,085.4
|
4,379.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,942.5
|
2,782.0
|
2,018.9
|
2,068.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
43.5
|
62.3
|
45.2
|
46.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
37.0
|
43.2
|
(27.4)
|
2.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
20.0
|
11.3
|
11.6
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
17.2
|
12.0
|
16.6
|
16.2
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.3
|
2.7
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.7
|
6.2
|
4.0
|
3.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
12.3
|
11.2
|
9.8
|
9.1
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
13.5
|
2.3
|
14.5
|
13.1
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR22.08
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR24.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nothing untoward
|
|
PTG’s 9M16 results were in-line, all segments performing
within expectations. There remains no indication for now, of PTG
raising its dividend payout ratio, although we do not rule out such a
possibility. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged MYR24.00 TP.
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|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
4,391.7
|
4,456.0
|
4,551.3
|
4,580.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
2,988.3
|
2,967.2
|
3,187.6
|
3,246.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,784.9
|
1,749.6
|
1,717.6
|
1,740.5
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
90.2
|
88.4
|
86.8
|
88.0
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
17.9
|
(2.0)
|
(1.8)
|
1.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
55.0
|
60.0
|
60.8
|
61.6
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
24.5
|
25.0
|
25.4
|
25.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
4.1
|
3.8
|
3.7
|
3.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.5
|
2.7
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
17.7
|
18.1
|
14.7
|
14.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
13.5
|
12.7
|
11.7
|
11.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.8
|
15.1
|
13.7
|
13.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
2.3
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR7.00
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR7.40
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fantastic
operations but ASP thwarts
|
|
3Q16 core PATAMI of MYR891m (-2.7% YoY and +34% QoQ) was
in-line. PCHEM delivered record factory utilisation of 95.7% in 9M16
(+10.4ppt YoY) but ASP has declined by 7.9% YoY. We revise our ASP
growth forecast for 2016 to -6% (from -5%) but keep our FY17-18 EPS
unchanged. We roll-over our base valuation year to FY17 and apply
global peer average EV/EBITDA of 8x to derive a TP of MYR7.40 (+5sen).
There is limited upside to our TP, and hence PCHEM remains a HOLLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
14,597.0
|
13,536.0
|
12,776.3
|
12,418.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
4,650.0
|
5,036.0
|
5,595.7
|
6,226.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
2,790.0
|
2,754.0
|
3,015.0
|
3,397.8
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
34.9
|
34.4
|
37.7
|
42.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(11.4)
|
(1.3)
|
9.5
|
12.7
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
16.0
|
18.0
|
18.8
|
21.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
20.1
|
20.3
|
18.6
|
16.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.5
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.3
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
9.9
|
9.3
|
9.7
|
10.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.7
|
10.2
|
8.7
|
7.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Fed sets up move in December while leaving rates on
hold. Federal Reserve policy makers left interest rates unchanged while
saying the argument for higher borrowing costs strengthened further amid
accelerating inflation, reinforcing expectations for a hike next month.
“The committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds
rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait
for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives,”
the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement following a two-day
meeting in Washington. The decision was 8-2. (Source: Bloomberg)
E.U: Manufacturing expanded in October at the fastest pace
since early 2014, with strengthening demand creating room for higher
prices. A Purchasing Managers’ Index for factories rose to 53.5 from 52.6
in September, exceeding an Oct. 24 estimate of 53.3, IHS Markit said. A
gauge for new orders rose to the highest level since December. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Germany: Unemployment fell more than forecast in October,
pushing the jobless rate to a fresh record low. The number of people out
of work declined by a seasonally adjusted 13,000 to 2.662 million in
October, data from the Federal Labor Agency showed. The jobless rate
dropped to 6%, the lowest level since the country’s reunification.
(Source: Bloomberg)
U.K: House prices failed to rise in October and annual
inflation slowed to the weakest since the start of the year, according to
Nationwide Building Society. The stagnation in values on the month ends
15 consecutive months of increases, Nationwide said. In its analysis of
the market, it said measures of housing activity remain “fairly subdued,”
with transactions about 10% down from a year earlier. Annual price growth
slowed to 4.6% from 5.3%. (Source: Bloomberg)
Crude Oil: Holds below USD 46/bbl after crude stockpiles
climb most on record. Crude inventories rose 14.4 million barrels last
week, the biggest gain in data going back to 1982, according to the
Energy Information Administration. Imports surged 28% to the highest in
four years. Prices were down before the report’s release on record OPEC
output last month, which is complicating the group’s effort to stabilize
prices. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Pesona: Bags MYR488m shopping complex job. The
construction firm unit Pesona Metro S/B has clinched a MYR488m contract
from Central Plaza I-City Real Estate Sdn Bhd for the main building works
of the proposed shopping complex, known as Central Plaza@i-City. Pesona
Metro said the proposed shopping complex, which is located at Section 7
Shah Alam is owned by Central Plaza I-City Real Estate. The 20-months
project will start today, it added. (Source: The Sun Daily
Seacera: Aborts Semenyih land buy worth MYR220m. The group
has aborted a plan to acquire Duta Nilai Holdings S/B for MYR220m. Duta
Nilai owns a 250-acre piece of land in Semenyih, Selangor. Duta Nilai is
the holding company of Duta Skyline S/B, which owns the land. Seacera,
entered into the deal via its subsidiary Seacera Properties S/B on April
27 this year. It said then the acquisition will enable the group to
accelerate the growth of its property development activity. (Source: The
Edge Financial Daily)
Titijaya: Denies CREC buying stake in the company. The
company yesterday denied that China Railway Group Ltd (CREC) was buying
shares in the property developer to build a strategic stake in the
company. The company wishes to clarify that after making due and diligent
enquiries with the directors and major shareholders and such other
relevant persons, there are no shares sold to CREC. It added that to
date, the company has not been informed by CREC in respect of the
above-mentioned share sale. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
AirAsia: To shift operations to KLIA by January? Asia’s
largest low-cost carrier, plans to move its entire operations to Kuala
Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) by January next year. the group’s
affiliates — AirAsia Bhd (AirAsia), Thai AirAsia, Philippines AirAsia,
Indonesia AirAsia, AirAsia X and Indonesia X — had agreed to relocate to
the main terminal. The decision was made following the revised passenger
service charges (PSCs) by Malaysian Aviation Commission (Mavcom) on
Monday. AirAsia and AirAsia X had said the services at KLIA and klia2
were not at par, and passengers enjoy far superior services at the main
terminal. (Source: New Straits Times)
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