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Share
Price:
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MYR9.89
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Target
Price:
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MYR12.80
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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Attractively
valued
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What investors gain from exposure to Allianz Malaysia
(Allianz) is access to the leading general insurer and the fifth
largest life insurer in the country, backed by Alianz SE, one of the
largest insurance groups in the world. At current valuations, investors
would be paying just 0.2x P/BV for the largest general insurer in the
country, which is really very attractive a price. We initiate coverage
with a BUY call and a SOP-TP of MYR12.80, which represents an upside of
29%.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Net earned premiums
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3,254.3
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3,504.3
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3,616.5
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3,695.3
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Core profit (MYR m)
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295.9
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308.9
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320.2
|
337.6
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BVPS (MYR)
|
6.6
|
7.6
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8.5
|
9.6
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P/B (x)
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1.5
|
1.3
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1.2
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1.0
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EVPS (MYR)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
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PEV (x)
|
na
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na
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na
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na
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VNB (MYR)
|
na
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na
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na
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na
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VNB multiple (x)
|
na
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na
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na
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na
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ROE (%)
|
0.1
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0.1
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0.1
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0.1
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ROA (%)
|
0.0
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0.0
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0.0
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0.0
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.82
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Target
Price:
|
MYR1.95
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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Just getting
warmed up
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We recently hosted Pecca on a 1-day Non-Deal Roadshow in
Singapore, meeting 12 fund managers. The feedback was positive; one of
Pecca’s catalyst is the encouraging demand for the Perodua Bezza.
Sustained momentum for Perodua Bezza (>7k units per month) offers
upside to our forecasts which are unchanged for now. Also, a re-rating
could come on the award of leather upholstery license for the aviation
industry by DCA. Pecca is our Top BUY pick in the sector; MYR1.95 TP
(13x CY17 EPS) unchanged.
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FYE Jun (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
|
99.5
|
129.5
|
125.9
|
168.9
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EBITDA
|
22.6
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27.8
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24.8
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37.0
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Core net profit
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14.5
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17.9
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15.5
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25.9
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Core EPS (sen)
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7.7
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9.5
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8.3
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13.8
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Core EPS growth (%)
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37.4
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23.9
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(13.5)
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67.0
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Net DPS (sen)
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5.1
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4.4
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4.1
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6.9
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Core P/E (x)
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23.6
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19.1
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22.1
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13.2
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P/BV (x)
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5.7
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4.9
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2.4
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2.2
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Net dividend yield (%)
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2.8
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2.4
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2.3
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3.8
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ROAE (%)
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25.1
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27.6
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14.6
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17.3
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ROAA (%)
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16.3
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17.5
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11.4
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15.0
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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na
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na
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10.5
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7.2
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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Share
Price:
|
SGD1.63
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Target
Price:
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SGD1.80
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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Weak results
priced in
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After a dismal 1Q16 results, 2Q16 results rebounded
sharply QoQ but still lagged full-year expectations on weak output. We
cut our 2016-18 EPS by 6-23% on lowered FFB output forecasts. We
believe FR’s weak results are largely priced in. As El Nino’s impact on
output is temporary, we expect yield to normalise in 2017. BUY on
revised SGD1.80 TP as we roll forward our valuation base year with a
17x 2017 PER peg.
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FYE Dec (USD m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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615.5
|
453.7
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474.9
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568.5
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EBITDA
|
288.6
|
202.6
|
182.7
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229.5
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Core net profit
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172.0
|
109.8
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88.1
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120.9
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Core EPS (cts)
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10.9
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6.9
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5.6
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7.6
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Core EPS growth (%)
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(20.7)
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(36.1)
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(19.7)
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37.2
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Net DPS (cts)
|
2.6
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1.8
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1.7
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2.3
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Core P/E (x)
|
11.2
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17.5
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21.8
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15.9
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P/BV (x)
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1.8
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2.6
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2.4
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2.2
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Net dividend yield (%)
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2.1
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1.5
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1.4
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1.9
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ROAE (%)
|
16.7
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12.2
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11.5
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14.4
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ROAA (%)
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9.1
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6.2
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5.5
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7.1
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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8.7
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12.2
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11.9
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9.2
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Net debt/equity (%)
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21.8
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39.3
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26.8
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17.6
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MACRO RESEARCH
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Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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2Q 2016 GDP growth slowed to +4.0% YoY and
seasonally-adjusted +0.7% QoQ (1Q 2016: +4.2% YoY; +1.0% QoQ SA), in
line with our and consensus estimates. Broad-based pick up in
domestic demand negated the contraction in net external demand. No
change in our 2016 and 2017 growth forecasts of +4.1% and +4.5% for
now as we closely monitor key domestic indicators and developments in
major economies.
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Suhaimi Ilias
|
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
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Smaller current
account surplus
|
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Current account surplus narrowed in 2Q 2016 to MYR1.9b
or +0.6% of GDP (1Q 2016: +MYR5.0b or 1.7% of GDP) on smaller goods
account surplus and wider income account deficit. Current account
surplus was +MYR6.9b or 1.2% of GDP in 1H 2016. Our full-year forecast
is +MYR24.3b or 2.0% of GDP.
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Suhaimi Ilias
|
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Zamros
Dzulkafli
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Sales at retailers were little changed in July as
Americans flocked to auto dealers at the expense of other merchants. The
stalling of purchases followed a 0.8% gain in June that was stronger than
initially estimated, Commerce Department figures showed. Excluding cars,
sales retreated 0.3%, the most since the start of the year. Improving car
sales drained enough cash from consumers’ accounts to cause demand at
eight of 12 other major retail categories to fall. While households have
been bolstered by higher stock and home values, stronger wage growth
would go a long way in improving purchasing power. (Source: Bloomberg)
E.U: GDP rose 0.3% in the three months through June; the
European Union’s statistics office said. Growth slowed in line with
economists’ forecasts in the second quarter, leaving the currency bloc
vulnerable to any fallout from Britain’s vote to leave the European
Union. That matches an initial estimate and marks a slowdown from an
expansion of 0.6% in the first three months of this year. (Source:
Bloomberg)
U.K: London properties are taking longer to sell this
month, despite a summer price cut, as Brexit uncertainty compounds the
dampening effect of the holiday season. Homes in the U.K. capital are
staying on the market for five days more than in May, the month before
Britons voted to leave the European Union, property website Rightmove Plc
said. To encourage buyers, owners of inner-London homes cut asking prices
by 3.6% from July to an average of GBP 784,494 (USD 1m); districts
further out saw values drop 1.5%. It leaves London overall up 2.1% on the
year, one the slowest growth rates of any U.K. region. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Singapore: Worried over jobs and pay, Are glummest since
2009. Singaporeans are the most pessimistic about the economy in seven
years as they’ve grown more gloomy about their quality of life, their
income and job security. Mastercard’s consumer confidence index for the
city-state plunged to 33.6 in the first half of 2016, down from 44.3 for
the previous six months, the company said in a statement on Aug. 11. It’s
at the lowest level since June 2009, when the city’s GDP contracted for
four straight quarters. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Petronas Gas: Forms JV with Linde. The company has
executed a shareholders agreement with Linde (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd for a
joint-venture company to undertake the development of an air separation
unit plant in Pengerang, Johor, a project that is estimated to cost USD172m.
Petronas Gas will hold a 51% stake in the joint-venture company, with its
portion of the cost to be an estimated USD88m. Linde will hold the
remaining 49%.The source of funding for the project is expected to be via
a combination of equity and debt from the respective parties.
Construction on the project is to start by the third quarter of 2016 and
the plant is expected to achieve commercial operation by the fourth
quarter of 2018. (Source: The Sun Daily)
Supermax: To increase contact lens capacity in Singapore,
UK and US. The company aims to increase its contact lens capacity to two
billion pieces annually in the next 10 years from 40 million currently
plans to set up contact lens plants in Singapore, the US and the UK.
According to the group’s managing director, expanding in Malaysia is not
good enough, hence needing a multiple manufacturing sites. The challenge
with Malaysia is that they are not able to get enough talent in
Malaysia-noting that 95%-98% of its workforce are engineers with minimum
qualification of a university degree. The group is in the midst of
obtaining approval from the Singapore government to set up its contact
lens plant there. It expects to get approval by next year. International
Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) certifications to allow
registration of its products is expected to be secured by the 4Q16 and
once secured, the group will start selling the contact lens. To date, the
group has spent MYR65m on its new business, with MYR30m more planned by
the end of this year in order to increase its contact lens capacity to 70
million pieces annually by 1Q17. (Source: The Sun Daily)
Sime Darby: To catch a ride on the high speed rail
network. The company, which owns large tracts of land in Negri Sembilan
and Johor, is looking to catch a ride on the HSR network. It is already
in talks with the project delivery company, MyHSR Corp on the development
potential of its land surrounding the proposed stations in Labu, Seremban
and Pagoh. The company’s land could be the site for one of eight planned
HSR stations. According to the company’s spokesman, “With the development
of infrastructure in the vicinity of our land, Sime Darby will review the
current use of the land to ensure that we take advantage of the
opportunities available to us so we can create maximum value for all our
stakeholders”. Construction of the HSR is expected to start in 2018 while
revenue services are scheduled to operate in 2026. (Source: The Star)
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