Rationalizing the 10-year Treasury Forecast?

Economic Research	25 August 2016
UNITED STATES
Economic Highlights
Rationalizing the 10-year Treasury Forecast? The 10-year US Treasury yield, despite ongoing expectations of firmer Fed policy, touched a daily record low of roughly 1.35% last month.  But the magnitude of decline in the 10-year yield of more than 85bps at its peak, while notable, was not the largest in recent history (excluding the more recent periods of large-scale asset purchases, the slide in the 1980s and 1990s were generally heftier).  While the 10-year Treasury yield has recovered to less than 1.6% recently, market participants still seem to be divided on the likely progression in the coming months, with a handful expecting that the 10-year yield falling further and testing new record lows by the end of the year Economist:  Thomas Lam  | +65 6533 0389
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