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FEATURE
CALLS
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Malaysia | Genting Bhd
Still believers
in its long term growth prospects
Samuel Yin Shao
Yang
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Share
Price:
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MYR8.21
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Target
Price:
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MYR10.65
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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Still believers
in its long term growth prospects
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2Q16 and 1H16 results fell short due to
lower-than-expected VIP win rate and VIP volume at Genting Singapore
(GENS) and FFB output at Genting Plantations (GENP). Reflecting the
above and its reduced shareholding in the Banten power plant, we cut
earnings estimates for GENT by 15-22%. Consequently, our SOP-based TP
is trimmed to MYR10.65 from MYR11.10. Trading 23% below its SOP/sh
which is close to the long term average of 21% discount, we believe the
downside risk is limited.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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18,216.5
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18,100.4
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18,218.7
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20,876.6
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EBITDA
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6,627.5
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5,685.4
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5,877.1
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7,759.5
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Core net profit
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1,777.4
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1,524.2
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1,388.8
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2,204.6
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Core FDEPS (sen)
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46.2
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40.9
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34.5
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52.8
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Core FDEPS growth(%)
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1.5
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(11.5)
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(15.7)
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53.1
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Net DPS (sen)
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4.0
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3.5
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3.0
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4.5
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Core FD P/E (x)
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17.8
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20.1
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23.8
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15.6
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P/BV (x)
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1.1
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0.9
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0.9
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0.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
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0.5
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0.4
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0.4
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0.6
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ROAE (%)
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6.8
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5.1
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4.2
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6.3
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ROAA (%)
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2.5
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1.9
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1.5
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2.4
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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7.3
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7.9
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8.6
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6.5
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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Share
Price:
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MYR4.30
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Target
Price:
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MYR4.55
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Earnings
recovery continues
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2Q16 and 1H16 earnings were above expectations (due to
lower taxes), dividends within. Although gaming volumes were softer at
Resorts World Genting (RWG) and Genting UK (GENUK), VIP win rates
recovered markedly. We expect 2H16 to be better operationally due to
seasonally higher gaming volume and the opening of Sky Plaza at RWG.
Expecting taxes to normalise, we maintain our earnings estimates, HOLD
call and MYR4.55 SOP-based TP for now.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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8,229.4
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8,395.9
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9,677.2
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11,087.6
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EBITDA
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2,247.6
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2,153.5
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2,768.9
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3,173.1
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Core net profit
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1,358.1
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1,256.4
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1,390.7
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1,599.3
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Core EPS (sen)
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23.9
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22.2
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24.5
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28.2
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Core EPS growth (%)
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(20.8)
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(7.4)
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10.6
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15.0
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Net DPS (sen)
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6.5
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7.1
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7.9
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9.0
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Core P/E (x)
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18.0
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19.4
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17.5
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15.2
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P/BV (x)
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1.5
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1.3
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1.2
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1.2
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Net dividend yield (%)
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1.5
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1.7
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1.8
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2.1
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ROAE (%)
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8.6
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7.1
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7.1
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7.8
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ROAA (%)
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6.7
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5.2
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5.0
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5.6
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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9.7
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11.5
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9.0
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7.8
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
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0.1
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2.1
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2.0
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Share
Price:
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MYR10.64
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Target
Price:
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MYR10.18
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Still a
challenging 2Q16
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As 2Q16 results disappointed on low output, we lower our
FY16-18 EPS forecasts by -9%/-4%/-4% post revisions to our FFB output
assumptions. Our revised RNAV-based TP is MYR10.18 (previously
MYR10.54). GENP remains a HOLD. Even though we expect a stronger 2H16
earnings, the stock lacks catalyst to re-rate.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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1,642.9
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1,374.9
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1,501.7
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1,669.1
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EBITDA
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562.6
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358.7
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423.4
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541.7
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Core net profit
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380.0
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205.7
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256.1
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340.4
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Core EPS (sen)
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49.3
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26.3
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32.7
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43.5
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Core EPS growth (%)
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22.7
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(46.7)
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24.5
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32.9
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Net DPS (sen)
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10.0
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5.5
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6.5
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8.7
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Core P/E (x)
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21.6
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40.5
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32.5
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24.5
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P/BV (x)
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2.1
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2.0
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1.9
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1.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
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0.9
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0.5
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0.6
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0.8
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ROAE (%)
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10.4
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5.1
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5.9
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7.5
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ROAA (%)
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7.3
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3.2
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3.5
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4.4
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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14.1
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26.3
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22.8
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17.9
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
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20.5
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24.9
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24.9
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Share
Price:
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MYR6.65
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Target
Price:
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MYR6.52
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Healthy growth
but drag from start-up costs
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2Q16 earnings missed our expectation; 1H16 formed 42% of
our FY16E & 41% of consensus. We cut our FY16-18E EPS by 12-16% to
incorporate higher start-up costs for new hospitals. We raise SOTP TP
to MYR6.52 after rolling over our base year to FY17. We continue to
like IHH for its strong global footprint & leadership position in
the attractive premium healthcare segment, but we maintain our HOLD
call, as we believe the positives are in the price. IHH trades at 54x
FY17E P/E vs peers’ 33x average.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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7,344.0
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8,455.5
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10,547.2
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12,281.2
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EBITDA
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1,943.0
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2,218.7
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2,473.3
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2,844.5
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Core net profit
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785.0
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899.2
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858.1
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1,016.8
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Core FDEPS (sen)
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9.5
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10.9
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10.4
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12.3
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Core FDEPS growth(%)
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28.5
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14.5
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(5.1)
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18.5
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Net DPS (sen)
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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3.5
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Core FD P/E (x)
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69.7
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60.9
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64.1
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54.1
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P/BV (x)
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2.8
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2.4
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2.4
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2.3
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Net dividend yield (%)
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0.5
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0.5
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0.5
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0.5
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ROAE (%)
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4.2
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4.3
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3.8
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4.4
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ROAA (%)
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2.8
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2.8
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2.4
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2.7
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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22.1
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27.4
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25.4
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22.2
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Net debt/equity (%)
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9.3
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21.1
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25.4
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25.0
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Share
Price:
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MYR5.49
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Target
Price:
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MYR5.90
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Still
uninspiring
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Given Ncell’s earnings contribution only began in 2Q16, we
deem Axiata’s 1H16 results as within our expectations but below
consensus. Operating performance of key entities continues to be
lacklustre, but is possibly priced-in to some extent (Axiata has underperformed
domestic peers YTD). Maintain HOLD, with an unchanged TP of MYR5.90.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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18,711.8
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19,883.5
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22,484.8
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24,766.4
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EBITDA
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6,998.6
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7,284.1
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8,397.4
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9,397.7
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Core net profit
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2,239.0
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2,071.0
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2,071.5
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2,540.6
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Core EPS (sen)
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26.1
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23.9
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23.5
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28.8
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Core EPS growth (%)
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(15.8)
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(8.6)
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(1.7)
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22.6
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Net DPS (sen)
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22.0
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20.0
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20.0
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24.5
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Core P/E (x)
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21.0
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23.0
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23.4
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19.1
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P/BV (x)
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2.3
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2.1
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2.0
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2.0
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Net dividend yield (%)
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4.0
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3.6
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3.6
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4.5
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ROAE (%)
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11.1
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9.4
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8.7
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10.6
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ROAA (%)
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4.8
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3.9
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3.5
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4.1
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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10.1
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9.4
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7.8
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6.9
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Net debt/equity (%)
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42.3
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46.3
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57.2
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52.8
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.79
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Target
Price:
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MYR1.95
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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Above
expectations
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FY6/16 core earnings beat our expectations. Following a
slower FY6/16, we expect earnings to rebound strongly in FY6/17 (+57%
YoY), to be driven by higher OEM sales from full-year contribution of
Perodua’s Bezza which has seen remarkable response. Furthermore, a
re-rating could come on the award of leather upholstery license for the
aviation industry by DCA. Pecca remains as our Top BUY pick in the auto
sector. We keep our earnings estimates and MYR1.95 TP (13x CY17 EPS)
unchanged.
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FYE Jun (MYR m)
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FY15A
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FY16A
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FY17E
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FY18E
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Revenue
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129.5
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126.3
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168.8
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189.2
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EBITDA
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27.8
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22.7
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38.2
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44.9
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Core net profit
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17.9
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16.5
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25.9
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30.4
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Core EPS (sen)
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9.5
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8.8
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13.8
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16.2
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Core EPS growth (%)
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23.9
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(7.8)
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56.7
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17.4
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Net DPS (sen)
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4.4
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4.0
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6.9
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8.1
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Core P/E (x)
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18.8
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20.3
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13.0
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11.1
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P/BV (x)
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4.8
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2.1
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2.0
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1.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
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2.5
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2.2
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3.8
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4.5
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ROAE (%)
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27.6
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14.6
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15.9
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17.1
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ROAA (%)
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17.5
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11.4
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13.7
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14.9
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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na
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9.4
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6.7
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5.6
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.64
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Target
Price:
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MYR1.80
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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Slight shortfall
due to timing
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SCG’s 1H16 net profit of MYR60m was slightly behind our
forecast due to slower-than-expected works recognition. This was due to
timing and its huge outstanding orderbook of MYR4.9b should provide for
stronger earnings ahead. We lower our 2016/17/18 net profit forecasts
by 13%/ 8%/6%. Our TP is unchanged, pegged at a higher 14x 2017 PER. We
are still positive on SCG’s prospects. The stock remains as our top
mid-cap BUY in the construction sector.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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1,880.7
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1,916.9
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2,359.0
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2,511.2
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EBITDA
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151.2
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178.2
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204.0
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241.8
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Core net profit
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114.2
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127.7
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135.0
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164.9
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Core EPS (sen)
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8.8
|
9.9
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10.4
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12.8
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Core EPS growth (%)
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20.9
|
11.9
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5.7
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22.1
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Net DPS (sen)
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30.5
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4.0
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3.7
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4.5
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Core P/E (x)
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18.6
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16.6
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15.7
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12.9
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P/BV (x)
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6.4
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4.7
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3.9
|
3.3
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Net dividend yield (%)
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18.6
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2.4
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2.2
|
2.7
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ROAE (%)
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24.1
|
32.6
|
27.3
|
27.8
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ROAA (%)
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8.4
|
9.2
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8.5
|
9.4
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
na
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8.7
|
8.6
|
6.8
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
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net cash
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Chew Hann Wong
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Adrian Wong
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Share
Price:
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MYR1.49
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Target
Price:
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MYR1.50
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Fulfilling
dividend expectation
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FY16 results were in line. More importantly, YTLP came
through with a 10sen DPS, thus putting to rest recent concerns on a
dividend cut. While earnings outlook remains challenging, we believe
YTLP should be able to sustain a 10sen DPS going forward. Maintain HOLD
on a higher TP of MYR1.50 (+7%) as we reflect YTLP’s lower net debt
balance.
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FYE Jun (MYR m)
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FY15A
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FY16A
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FY17E
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FY18E
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Revenue
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11,858.1
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10,240.5
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9,111.1
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9,334.7
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EBITDA
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3,112.9
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2,717.8
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2,656.2
|
2,782.6
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Core net profit
|
894.9
|
872.0
|
762.5
|
819.3
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Core FDEPS (sen)
|
12.3
|
11.2
|
9.8
|
10.6
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Core FDEPS growth(%)
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(35.2)
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(8.5)
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(12.6)
|
7.4
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Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
10.0
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Core FD P/E (x)
|
12.1
|
13.2
|
15.1
|
14.1
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P/BV (x)
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
6.7
|
6.7
|
6.7
|
6.7
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ROAE (%)
|
8.2
|
7.3
|
6.1
|
6.5
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ROAA (%)
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
1.9
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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8.7
|
9.3
|
10.0
|
9.6
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
138.5
|
115.6
|
119.7
|
122.3
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Share
Price:
|
MYR0.32
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Target
Price:
|
MYR0.42
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Recommendation:
|
Buy
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1H16 results in
line
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Icon reported stronger QoQ performance on higher OSV
utilisation. Our forecasts are unchanged. The OSV market is challenging
but is at its cyclical trough. Icon targets to tough it out, and
continues to be resilient and be ahead as the cycle turns. Its M&A
prospect is a key standout, a key re-rating catalyst if crystalised.
Valuations are attractive now even without the M&A angle. Our TP is
based on 1x EV/replacement value.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
318.9
|
266.6
|
254.6
|
327.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
190.3
|
122.8
|
99.1
|
130.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
74.9
|
18.2
|
6.0
|
27.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
6.4
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
2.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(34.1)
|
(75.6)
|
(66.9)
|
354.7
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
5.0
|
20.7
|
62.4
|
13.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.3
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
10.3
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
3.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.5
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
1.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.7
|
9.2
|
10.5
|
7.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
54.9
|
84.9
|
89.8
|
71.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.41
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.80
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1H16 a miss
|
|
1H16 net profit made up just 28%/25% of ours/consensus FY
forecasts; the shortfall due to losses at its Canadian operations and
lower margins. We cut 2016 estimate by 44% but keep 2017-18 forecasts.
KNM’s investment thesis is its transformation into a renewable energy
play; a strong re-rating catalyst if executed well. Reiterate BUY with
an unchanged MYR0.80 TP (0.4x EV/backlog).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,865.1
|
1,641.3
|
1,665.8
|
2,170.4
|
|
EBITDA
|
207.9
|
205.7
|
123.5
|
215.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
36.8
|
45.7
|
40.5
|
110.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.2
|
5.9
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
61.2
|
3.4
|
(11.3)
|
172.2
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
17.1
|
16.6
|
18.7
|
6.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
1.5
|
4.0
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
2.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.3
|
7.1
|
9.8
|
5.2
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
27.1
|
19.1
|
17.0
|
13.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR3.14
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.80
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A proxy to
Broadcom’s growth
|
|
Inari is set to resume its double-digit earnings growth in
FY6/17 (+27%), riding on Broadcom’s growth, especially in the wireless
(RF) division. Post yesterday’s analyst briefing, we upped our FY16-18
net profit forecasts by 3% each to account for stable margins from
better sales mix and plant utilisation. Riding on an earnings upcycle
with better visibility, we believe that Inari deserves to trade at
17.5x (+1SD) CY17 EPS (from 15x). We raise our TP to MYR3.80 (+19%).
Reiterate BUY.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
933.1
|
1,040.9
|
1,340.6
|
1,547.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
187.3
|
203.0
|
268.5
|
318.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
147.0
|
155.5
|
198.0
|
225.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
15.8
|
16.0
|
20.4
|
23.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
36.5
|
1.3
|
27.4
|
13.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
8.9
|
8.4
|
9.2
|
10.4
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
19.9
|
19.6
|
15.4
|
13.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.4
|
4.5
|
3.8
|
3.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.8
|
2.7
|
2.9
|
3.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
37.0
|
25.5
|
26.8
|
26.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
22.0
|
18.2
|
20.4
|
19.7
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
11.9
|
13.3
|
10.8
|
9.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.83
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.10
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Sell
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2Q16 below
expectations
|
|
2Q16 results missed ours and consensus’ estimates whereby
the lower-than-expected earnings were due to weaker operating margins
at both Retailing and Property Management Services. We lower FY16-18
net profit forecasts by 9-17% and TP by 10sen/5% to MYR2.10 (pegged to
24x FY17 PER).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
3,705.5
|
3,834.6
|
4,024.3
|
4,174.7
|
|
EBITDA
|
485.6
|
443.9
|
445.4
|
469.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
197.7
|
133.4
|
101.6
|
122.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
14.1
|
9.5
|
7.2
|
8.7
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(14.4)
|
(32.5)
|
(23.9)
|
20.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
5.0
|
4.0
|
2.5
|
3.1
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
20.1
|
29.8
|
39.1
|
32.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
11.6
|
7.4
|
5.4
|
6.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.2
|
3.6
|
2.4
|
2.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.3
|
9.9
|
10.1
|
9.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
3.4
|
30.3
|
25.9
|
19.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.45
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.38
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2Q16: In line
|
|
2Q16 results were within expectations. Into 2H16, revenue
momentum should remain positive on the gradual recovery in consumer
sentiment. As of end-1H16, SEM has opened only 57 stores. To achieve
its target of 200 stores for CY16, store openings in the 2H would have
to be ramped up. We maintain our earnings forecasts, HOLD call and TP
of MYR1.38.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,893.1
|
2,006.3
|
2,179.2
|
2,497.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
130.9
|
126.5
|
141.9
|
162.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
58.1
|
55.8
|
60.2
|
68.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
4.7
|
4.6
|
4.9
|
5.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
15.9
|
(3.3)
|
8.0
|
13.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
5.1
|
4.7
|
2.5
|
2.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.8
|
31.8
|
29.5
|
26.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
7.6
|
10.4
|
8.9
|
7.6
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.5
|
3.2
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
38.4
|
27.5
|
32.5
|
31.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
8.5
|
7.5
|
7.7
|
7.7
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
12.3
|
13.9
|
11.6
|
9.8
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.78
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.95
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1QFY17: Within
expectations
|
|
1QFY3/17 results were within expectations. While F&B
could still be a slight drag in the near term, we expect FMCG to
continue to be the heavy lifter. For FMCG, recovery of the China market
post its channel rationalisation plan will help fuel its positive
growth momentum. We keep our earnings forecasts and HOLD call with an
unchanged TP of MYR1.95 (14.8x CY17 PER; mean).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY16A
|
FY17A
|
FY18E
|
FY19E
|
|
Revenue
|
397.7
|
393.4
|
422.0
|
459.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
82.9
|
84.5
|
91.2
|
95.6
|
|
Core net profit
|
51.0
|
55.3
|
57.6
|
61.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
11.2
|
11.9
|
12.4
|
13.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
4.2
|
6.1
|
4.3
|
6.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.0
|
9.0
|
6.8
|
7.3
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
15.8
|
14.9
|
14.3
|
13.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.4
|
5.1
|
3.8
|
4.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.2
|
15.8
|
15.4
|
15.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
11.8
|
12.5
|
12.4
|
12.4
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
6.9
|
8.1
|
7.2
|
6.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.63
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.50
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4QFY16 earnings
in line
|
|
4QFY6/16 results and first interim net DPS of 2.5sen were
within expectations. The doubling in YoY earnings were mainly lifted by
new outlets’ contribution and stronger sales volume. We revise our
FY17/18 net profit forecasts by +9%/+7% and raise our TP by 20sen/9% to
MYR2.50 (pegged to unchanged 11x FY17 PER).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
977.9
|
1,301.2
|
1,441.8
|
1,588.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
145.3
|
221.7
|
239.2
|
250.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
80.2
|
137.4
|
149.1
|
153.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
12.2
|
20.9
|
22.7
|
23.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(11.8)
|
71.3
|
8.5
|
2.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
11.5
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
21.6
|
12.6
|
11.6
|
11.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
4.3
|
3.7
|
3.1
|
2.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.8
|
4.4
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
20.2
|
31.4
|
29.2
|
25.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
13.7
|
19.6
|
17.5
|
15.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
4.6
|
5.8
|
5.9
|
5.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.61
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.47
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No surprises
|
|
After deducting the MYR18.4m distribution to perpetual
sukuk holders, 1H16 net profit of MYR165m (-13% YoY) was within our
expectations but below consensus full-year estimates. 7M16 sales were
slightly below our and MSGB’s targets for 2016. Over the short term,
management’s focus will remain on affordable housing and it has
retained its MYR2.3b sales target for the year. We maintain our
earnings forecasts but raise RNAV-TP to MYR1.47 (+11sen/+8%) on
revisions in land price assumptions. HOLD.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,904.7
|
3,108.5
|
2,938.1
|
3,186.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
492.9
|
527.9
|
574.6
|
624.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
339.2
|
338.8
|
317.4
|
350.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
18.4
|
14.1
|
13.2
|
14.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
13.8
|
(23.5)
|
(6.3)
|
10.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
5.3
|
5.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
8.8
|
11.5
|
12.2
|
11.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
3.3
|
3.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
16.1
|
12.5
|
9.8
|
10.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.9
|
5.7
|
4.6
|
4.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.9
|
6.9
|
7.3
|
6.7
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
35.8
|
4.3
|
8.4
|
8.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.44
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.70
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expect a much
stronger 2H16
|
|
As expected, MBM’s 2016 will be a tale of two halves
whereby 2H16 would be significantly stronger HoH, driven by the
contribution of Perodua Bezza at three levels: (i) stronger motor
trading sales, (ii) rebound in auto parts manufacturing and (iii) better
associates’ contribution mainly from 22.6%-owned Perodua. We retain our
earnings forecasts pending a briefing today. Our MYR2.70 TP (9x FY17
PER) is unchanged for now. Maintain BUY on MBM for an exposure to
Perodua.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,774.1
|
1,816.7
|
1,779.7
|
1,949.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
17.8
|
43.9
|
23.2
|
29.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
112.2
|
83.5
|
89.8
|
117.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
28.7
|
21.4
|
23.0
|
30.0
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(18.8)
|
(25.5)
|
7.5
|
30.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
8.0
|
10.0
|
8.0
|
8.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
8.5
|
11.4
|
10.6
|
8.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.3
|
4.1
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
7.6
|
5.4
|
5.5
|
6.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
91.1
|
32.0
|
56.7
|
43.2
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
13.1
|
10.1
|
2.8
|
0.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Orders for capital goods rose for a second month in
July, the first back-to-back advance since early 2015 and a sign
companies are becoming more willing to boost spending. Orders for
non-military equipment excluding aircraft rose 1.6% (forecast was for
0.2% gain), most since January, after a 0.5% increase. Bookings for all
durable goods jumped 4.4% (forecast was for 3.4% gain). Inventories of
durable goods rose 0.3%, most since December. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: Ifo confidence falls as businesses fear fewer
orders. German business sentiment unexpectedly declined the most in more
than four years in August in a sign that companies took some time to
weigh the consequences of Britain’s decision to quit the European Union.
The Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index fell to 106.2 in
August from 108.3 in July. That’s the biggest drop since May 2012 and the
lowest reading since February. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K: Consumer confidence rose the most in more than three
years this month as the initial shock from Britain’s decision to leave
the European Union faded. An index of sentiment by YouGov and the Centre
for Economics and Business Research jumped to 109.8 from 106.6 in July,
which was a three-year low. The gauge is still below the level it was a
year ago. While the Brexit vote initially knocked sentiment, it’s not yet
clear how this might ripple into economic activity. (Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: CPI falls for fifth month in July, increasing
pressure on Kuroda, and underscoring the central bank’s struggle to spur
inflation to its 2% target. The figures are the last reading on this key
measure before Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board considers a
possible policy revamp at their next meeting on Sept. 20-21. Consumer
prices excluding fresh food, the Bank of Japan’s core gauge, dropped 0.5%
YoY in July (estimate -0.4% YoY). Consumer prices overall slipped 0.4%
YoY (estimate -0.4% YoY). Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose
0.3% YoY (estimate +0.4% YoY). (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Barakah Offshore: Bags Petronas Carigali job. The company
has been awarded a contract for the provision of underwater services for
oil and gas fields in Sabah and Sarawak by Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd. Its
wholly owned subsidiary, PBJV Group Sdn Bhd received a letter of award
from Petronas Carigali for the two-year contract, which is from August
2016 till August 2018, with an option for a one-year extension. The
contract requires the provision of main and support vessel, air and
saturation diving, remotely operated vehicle and other related underwater
services, which includes inspection, maintenance, repair, drilling
support and other work to Petronas Carigali’s underwater facilities as
and when necessary. The value of the contract was not disclosed. (Source:
The Edge Financial Daily)
Malaysia Airports: To manage Doha airport for 3 more
years. The company’s 49%-owned Qatar unit has bagged a three-year
extension to manage Hamad International Airport (HIA) in Doha, Qatar
worth 163.9 million riyals (MYR180.8m) to provide facility management
services for airport operational facilities and ancillary buildings
including change orders for the Doha-based airport. The contract will run
from June 2016 to June 2019. HIA has the capacity to handle 30 million
passengers annually, rising to 50 million when the second phase is
completed. (source: The Sun Daily)
Hartalega: Clarifies reports on headcount reduction. The
company said it had not laid off or fired 600 workers to offset higher
costs in relation to the minimum wage hike, as media reports highlighted
recently. The managing director Kuan Mun Leong said in a statement “The
600 workers were not laid off or fired as reported. They were previously
contract workers who were recruited when there was a shortage in supply
of foreign workers”. It further explained that the headcount reduction
had resulted in a productivity improvement, from 3.9 workers needed to
churn out every one million pieces of gloves to 3.6 workers. (Source: The
Star)
Eastern & Oriental: To launch projects worth MYR1b in
FY17. The company, which will be launching close to MYR1b worth of
projects in the current financial year ending March 31 2017, intends to
monetize its land bank to improve cash flow. The managing director Kok
Tuck Cheong said the group will be rolling out the remaining phase of The
Tamarind in Penang, worth MYR160m, and the Conlay Place, which carries a
GDV of MYR800m by this year. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
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