Thursday, August 4, 2016

Generally, the recent data releases suggest that the headline GDP growth

Economic Research
            4 August 2016
G3 (US, Euro Area & Japan)

Economic Highlights





Generally, the recent data releases suggest that the headline GDP growth momentum within the G3 (US, Euro Area and Japan) economies, though not necessarily below potential growth, has been uninspiring in the first-half of 2016. Our calculations suggest that the G3 (PPP-weighted) real GDP growth rate has averaged modestly less than 1.5% annual rate in the initial six months of this year, roughly comparable to the pace observed during the second-half of last year. But there are tentative indications that G3 GDP growth in the final two quarters of 2016 could begin to improve gradually, perhaps to around 1.8% annual rate on balance (kindly refer to chart 1). Overall, however, G3 growth in 2016 is likely to come-in at 1.4% on average, essentially lower than the prior two years.



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