Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Thai Exports Set To Moderate In 2Q As E&E Slows

Economic Research
23 May 2017

Economic Update

Thailand’s April exports eased to 8.5% YoY. This was undermined by a sharp deceleration in shipments of E&E and a contraction in vehicle sales. Agricultural exports also slowed, but only marginally.   
Going forward, we believe that Thai merchandise exports remain on track to grow 2.7% this year from a flat reading in 2016. This is with:
    i.   Electronic exports set to pick up again in 2H ahead of the new Apple iPhone launch;
   ii.   Electrical appliance shipments continuing to be buoyed by the cyclical recovery in China and strong economic growth in the Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) countries;
  iii.   The auto exports slowdown likely to be less drastic than initially expected – this is following the reversal of public sector pay cuts in Saudi Arabia;
  iv.   Machinery exports being on course to increase this year as capex improves on firming economic recovery in the US, higher ASEAN GDP growth and receding risks of an EU breakup;
   v.   Agricultural exports are set to expand on the back of higher harvest yields and stronger rubber demand.

Economist:  Ng Kee Chou  | +603 9280 2179

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