|
|
|
|
alt=break v:shapes="_x0000_i1025">
|
|
|
|
alt=break v:shapes="_x0000_i1026">
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR19.02
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR19.70
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Meeting targets
thus far
|
|
As is typically the case, Public Bank’s 1Q16 results were
stable and within expectations as net profit expanded 5% YoY to
MYR1.23b. We maintain our earnings forecasts and HOLD call, with a
slightly raised TP of MYR19.70 (+10sen) on rolling forward valuations.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
8,673.4
|
9,438.8
|
9,806.3
|
10,340.8
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
6,067.5
|
6,523.6
|
6,797.3
|
7,135.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
4,518.8
|
4,955.2
|
5,176.4
|
5,381.3
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
1.17
|
1.28
|
1.34
|
1.39
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
4.1
|
9.7
|
4.5
|
4.0
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.54
|
0.56
|
0.58
|
0.60
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
16.3
|
14.8
|
14.2
|
13.6
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.8
|
2.9
|
3.0
|
3.2
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
7.26
|
8.09
|
9.01
|
9.94
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
18.7
|
16.7
|
15.7
|
14.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.87
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.40
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Focusing on
costs and capital
|
|
From our meeting with management, it is business as usual
at CIMB - cost rationalization continues to be a primary focus,
alongside capital management. Positively, efficiencies will drive
earnings growth this year but we await the stabilization of CIMB Niaga’s
asset quality. There is no change to our earnings forecasts. HOLD
maintained with an unchanged TP of MYR4.40 (0.9x CY16 P/BV).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
14,145.9
|
15,395.8
|
16,233.0
|
17,140.1
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
5,854.0
|
6,146.8
|
7,033.3
|
7,568.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
3,159.0
|
3,410.9
|
3,917.5
|
4,163.7
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
0.38
|
0.40
|
0.46
|
0.49
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(31.1)
|
5.6
|
14.2
|
6.3
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.15
|
0.14
|
0.19
|
0.21
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
12.8
|
12.1
|
10.6
|
10.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.1
|
2.9
|
3.9
|
4.3
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
4.53
|
4.87
|
5.10
|
5.39
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
9.3
|
8.7
|
9.3
|
9.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Economics Research
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eased on lower
transport cost
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Headline inflation rate eased to +2.6% YoY in Mar 2016
(Feb 2016: +4.2% YoY) but core inflation remained steady +3.6% YoY
(Feb 2016: +3.6% YoY). YTD 2016 headline inflation is +3.4% YoY while
core inflation is at +3.6% YoY. No change to our 2016 headline inflation
rate forecast of +3.0% to +3.5%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The FBMKLCI fell 2.24 points to close at 1,708.91
yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 declined 3.58 and 6.12 points
respectively. In terms of market breadth, the gainer-to-loser ratio
was 417-to-381, while 386 counters were unchanged. A total of 1.75b shares
were traded valued at MYR2.06b.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Purchases of previously owned homes rose more than
projected in March, indicating resilience in demand heading into the
spring selling season. Contract closings climbed 5.1% to a 5.33 million
annualized rate from February’s 5.07 million, figures from the National
Association of Realtors showed. Prices rose as inventories remained
tight. The report underscores the role that strong hiring and low
borrowing costs are playing in supporting housing at a time the economy
is restrained by fragile manufacturing and weak global markets. (Source:
Bloomberg)
U.K: Unemployment rose for the first time in seven months
and employers added far fewer jobs than forecast, suggesting the labor
market is cooling. The number of people looking for work climbed by
21,000 to 1.7 million in the three months through February, the Office
for National Statistics said. That left the jobless rate unchanged at a
decade-low of 5.1%, as forecast by economists. Employment rose by 20,000,
the weakest reading since June last year. The figures also showed few
signs of wage pressure. Pay growth excluding bonuses was unchanged at
2.2% in the latest three months. Total pay inflation moderated to 1.8%
from 2.1%, reflecting a sharp drop in financial- sector bonuses. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Crude: Holds near USD 43/bbl as U.S. output falls, freeze
talks planned. The May contract, which expired Wednesday, jumped 3.8% to
the highest level since November after the Energy Information
Administration reported that crude output fell to 8.95 million barrels a
day in the week ended April 15. Major OPEC and other crude producers will
meet in Russia, possibly in May, in an effort to agree on an output
freeze, Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Fayyad Al-Nima said. (Source:
Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other news:
Petronas Dagangan: To focus on retail, bitumen segments.
It has allocated around MYR400m to open up to 15 new stations and
refurbish existing stations. In FY15, the retail business contributed
close to 50% of the company’s overall margin. On its outlook for 2016,
Petronas Dagangan said the group aims to sustain and grow profitability
with their strong efforts to manage inventories, costs as well as improve
network and supply efficiency. (Source: The Sun Daily)
AirAsia X: To increase operational capacity by up to 15%
this year. This is driven by increased flight frequency to Australia and
introduction of new destinations, including the newly launch Auckland
destination and two destinations in China and more. Its load factor
averages around 83% and the airline is targeting to maintain this
following the delivery of two new aircraft in May and June. (Source: The
Edge Financial Daily)
Kian Joo: To invest MYR90m in Myanmar. Kian Joo CFO Ooi
Teik Huat said he expects construction works at the Thilawa Special Economic
Zone to kick start in the third quarter of the year and for it to be
operational in 2017. The land cost is USD15m. It intends to replicate its
business in Malaysia and the Myanmar operations are only expected to
contribute positively to the company after four or five years. Production
from the Myanmar plant will be mainly for the local market. (Source: The
Sun Daily)
E&O: Aborts UK unit’s planned London Stock Exchange
listing. E&O said this is due to unstable global market conditions
and exchange rate volatility. Recall that on May 25 last year, E&O
proposed to admit the entire issued ordinary shares and warrants of
E&O UK, a project management company, to trade on the AIM of the
London bourse. It had said that the exercise would provide a platform for
its existing assets and business in the UK to obtain a listing status in
a country where the group has its business. (Source: The Edge Financial
Daily)
GAB: To hike prices after June. It is looking at ways of
mitigating the increase in costs and procurement of raw materials with
Heineken is a way but it cannot mitigate all of it. It will keep price
increases as limited as possible. It chose the period after June because
the Price Control and Anti-Profiteering Act 2011, via the Price Control
and Anti-Profiteering Regulations 2014, forbids any net profit margin
rise for 18 months, starting Jan 2 last year, to prevent profiteering
post-GST. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
|
|
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.