[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

15 Oct 2015, Thursday

g Company Research - Top Glove: Earnings to positively surprise? | Yen Ling Lee - CIMB Group Holdings: Niaga: Refocusing lending priorities | Desmond Ch'ng - Boustead Plantations: DPS boost from more land sales? | Chee Ting Ong g Macro Research - Malaysia: Technicals - Index needs to surpass 1,717 | Lee Cheng Hooi - Malaysia: Other News - | Malaysia Research Team

MY: Top Glove (TOPG MK) Share Price: MYR8.05 Target Price: MYR9.10 Recommendation: Buy Yen Ling Lee (603) 2297 8691 lee.yl@maybank-ib.com Results Preview: Earnings to positively surprise? FYE Aug (MYR m) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Revenue 2,313.2 2,276.5 2,379.9 2,675.1 EBITDA 308.5 294.5 413.3 441.3 Core net profit 196.5 180.1 256.9 273.3 Core EPS (sen) 31.0 29.0 41.4 44.1 Core EPS growth (%) (8.3) (6.2) 42.6 6.4 Net DPS (sen) 16.0 16.0 20.7 22.0 Core P/E (x) 26.0 27.7 19.4 18.3 P/BV (x) 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.0 Net dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.7 ROAE (%) 15.2 13.3 17.6 17.2 ROAA (%) 11.7 9.8 12.7 12.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.9 9.6 11.7 10.9 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash §  4QFY/8/15 results could beat our forecast on higher sales volume and margin expansion. §  Positive earnings outlook still, given the strength in USD and firmed demand. §  Raise FY8/15 EPS forecast by 6%; maintain BUY and TP of MYR9.10 (20x 2016 PER). MY: CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK) Share Price: MYR4.95 Target Price: MYR5.60 Recommendation: Hold Desmond Ch'ng (603) 2297 8680 desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com Company Update: Niaga: Refocusing lending priorities FYE Dec (MYR m) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Operating income 14,671.8 14,145.9 14,801.9 15,477.5 Pre-provision profit 6,214.0 5,854.0 5,623.0 7,118.6 Core net profit 4,188.2 3,159.0 3,386.1 4,198.8 Core FDEPS (MYR) 0.60 0.37 0.34 0.50 Core FDEPS growth(%) 2.6 (37.5) (9.4) 46.8 Net DPS (MYR) 0.23 0.15 0.16 0.20 Core FD P/E (x) 8.3 13.2 14.6 9.9 P/BV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 Net dividend yield (%) 4.7 3.0 3.2 4.0 Book value (MYR) 4.02 4.53 4.64 4.94 ROAE (%) 14.3 9.3 8.9 10.5 ROAA (%) 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 §  CIMB Niaga’s new CEO’s focus is on improving the risk profile of its corporate/commercial loan portfolio while placing greater emphasis on the consumer/SME segments. §  Credit costs likely to remain elevated in the near term with provisions against other non-coal business segments. §  HOLD maintained on CIMB Group with an unchanged TP of MYR5.60 on FY16 P/BV peg of 1.1x (ROE: 10.5%). MY: Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK) Share Price: MYR1.46 Target Price: MYR1.56 Recommendation: Buy Chee Ting Ong (603) 2297 8678 ct.ong@maybank-ib.com Company Update: DPS boost from more land sales? FYE Dec (MYR m) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Revenue 770.3 717.3 604.3 689.7 EBITDA 174.0 169.8 85.5 144.2 Core net profit 63.2 62.8 19.5 64.9 Core EPS (sen) 6.2 3.9 1.2 4.1 Core EPS growth (%) (52.1) (36.7) (68.9) 233.1 Net DPS (sen) 8.8 6.0 7.0 2.4 Core P/E (x) 23.6 37.2 119.8 36.0 P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Net dividend yield (%) 6.0 4.1 4.8 1.7 ROAE (%) 4.5 3.4 0.8 2.8 ROAA (%) 2.3 1.9 0.6 1.9 EV/EBITDA (x) na 16.7 31.7 19.2 Net debt/equity (%) 68.0 17.9 11.4 13.5 §  More land has been earmarked for disposal to boost EPS. §  Potential upside to our DPS forecasts as it maintains a minimum dividend payout of 60%. §  Maintain BUY with an unchanged RNAV-TP of MYR1.56. MY: Technicals Lee Cheng Hooi (603) 2297 8694 chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com Technical Research: Index needs to surpass 1,717 §  UEMS - On a strong upward Wave 3 and 5 move. §  FBMKLCI – Index needs to surpass 1,717 next. §  Supports of 1,675 and 1,711 will be areas to buy. §  Resistances of 1,717 and 1,744 may cap rebounds. MY: Other News Malaysia Research Team Economics Research: Outside Malaysia —   U.S: Economy expanded modestly since mid-August —   U.S: Wholesale prices declined in September —   U.S: Retail sales rise less than forecast as Americans save more —   Brazil: USD 25b bad-loan deluge shows economy in distress —   Germany: Investor confidence drops as Volkswagen woes damp outlook —   Russia: Oil output reaches post-Soviet record in September —   China: Consumer inflation moderated and factory gate deflation extended a record stretch of declines Malaysia —   Oil & Gas: New rules for natural resources sector —   Property: Harrods Hotel deal is off —   Infrastructure: China firms express interest in Penang's MYR5.3b LRT venture —   Tenaga Nasional: Set to clinch 1MDB's energy assets as CGN quits