[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

30 Oct 2015, Friday

g Company Research - Tenaga Nasional: Better than expected | Chi Wei Tan - Pavilion REIT: Holding up well | - Sunway REIT: Within expectations | Kevin Wong g Macro Research - Malaysia: Technicals - Index broke the Rising Wedge pattern | Lee Cheng Hooi - Malaysia: Other News - | Malaysia Research Team

MY: Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK) Share Price: MYR12.66 Target Price: MYR16.00 Recommendation: Buy Chi Wei Tan (603) 2297 8690 chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com Results Review: Better than expected FYE Aug (MYR m) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Revenue 42,792.4 43,286.8 45,613.9 46,965.0 EBITDA 11,703.5 13,921.8 14,690.9 15,091.9 Core net profit 5,428.1 7,050.7 7,202.9 7,455.6 Core EPS (sen) 96.2 124.9 127.6 132.1 Core EPS growth (%) 33.6 29.9 2.2 3.5 Net DPS (sen) 29.0 29.0 34.2 36.5 Core P/E (x) 13.2 10.1 9.9 9.6 P/BV (x) 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 Net dividend yield (%) 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.9 ROAE (%) 13.9 15.6 14.5 13.5 ROAA (%) 5.2 6.2 6.0 5.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 5.7 5.9 5.6 Net debt/equity (%) 31.7 33.4 27.8 22.8 §  FY15 core net profit was above expectations primarily on lower-than-expected system loss. §  DPS was however maintained at FY14’s level, as the company opted to conserve cash. §  Reiterate BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR16.00. MY: Pavilion REIT (PREIT MK) Share Price: MYR1.51 Target Price: MYR1.75 Recommendation: Buy Wei Sum Wong (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com Results Review: Holding up well FYE Dec (MYR m) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E Revenue 375.5 402.1 410.8 464.1 Net property income 263.1 282.7 286.4 325.5 Distributable income 221.3 239.9 235.9 262.5 DPU (sen) 6.6 7.2 7.0 7.8 DPU growth (%) 7.1 8.1 (1.6) 11.3 Price/DPU(x) 22.8 21.1 21.4 19.3 P/BV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 DPU yield (%) 4.4 4.7 4.7 5.2 ROAE (%) 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 ROAA (%) 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.9 Debt/Assets (x) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 §  3Q15 net profit of MYR61m (-4.0% YoY) was above our expectation. §  We raise FY15-17 earnings forecasts by 2-7% after factoring in da:men’s contribution. §  Maintain BUY with a higher DCF-based MYR1.75 TP (+5sen). MY: Sunway REIT (SREIT MK) Share Price: MYR1.49 Target Price: MYR1.50 Recommendation: Hold Kevin Wong (603) 2082 6824 kevin.wong@maybank-ib.com Wei Sum Wong (603) 2297 8679 weisum@maybank-ib.com Results Review: Within expectations FYE Jun (MYR m) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Revenue 427.8 453.5 509.8 541.5 Net property income 321.0 340.8 394.1 422.4 Distributable income 231.9 242.0 262.3 285.0 DPU (sen) 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.5 DPU growth (%) 0.7 1.3 2.3 8.6 Price/DPU(x) 19.8 19.5 19.1 17.6 P/BV (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 DPU yield (%) 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.7 ROAE (%) 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.8 ROAA (%) 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.3 Debt/Assets (x) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 §  1QFY16 core net profit of MYR61m (-4.5% YoY) was in line. §  Remain cautious on SunREIT’s office assets due to soft and oversupplied office market. §  Maintain HOLD; DCF-based TP of MYR1.50 and FY16-18 earnings are unchanged. MY: Technicals Lee Cheng Hooi (603) 2297 8694 chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com Technical Research: Index broke the Rising Wedge pattern §  CONNECT - On a very strong downward move. §  FBMKLCI – Rising Wedge broken, Sell rebounds. §  Supports of 1,630 and 1,660 will be weaker. §  Resistances of 1,666 and 1,700 will cap any rebound. MY: Other News Malaysia Research Team Economics Research: Outside Malaysia —  U.S: Inventory correction in 3Q 2015 masks resilient demand in GDP report —  E.U: Confidence in the euro-area economy unexpectedly improved in October —  Germany: Unemployment fell in October —  Germany: Inflation rate rebounds after brief dip below zero —  China: Scrapping one-child rule —  Japan: Consumer prices fall 0.1% before BOJ policy decision Malaysia —  Consumer: Mydin to open 25 new stores in next three years —  Property Development: DBKL to sell Plaza Rakyat for MYR740m —  Maybank. Maybank Indonesia earnings soar —  Eastern & Oriental: Finalising financing for STP2