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MY: Hong Leong Bank (HLBK MK)
Share
Price: MYR14.20
Target Price: MYR15.20
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Desmond
Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,039.1
|
4,066.9
|
4,333.2
|
4,527.8
|
|
Pre-provision
profit
|
2,246.8
|
2,253.1
|
2,466.6
|
2,600.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
2,102.3
|
2,233.2
|
2,291.0
|
2,370.8
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
1.19
|
1.26
|
1.27
|
1.32
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
12.8
|
5.9
|
0.8
|
3.5
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.41
|
0.41
|
0.42
|
0.43
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.9
|
11.2
|
11.1
|
10.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
2.9
|
2.9
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
7.73
|
8.93
|
9.48
|
10.06
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.3
|
14.3
|
13.2
|
12.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
|
§ Rights price fixed at MYR10.40 with a
4-for-25 entitlement – 27% discount to current share price.
§ Positively, this will uplift HL Bank’s
entity CET1 ratio to 11% from 8%. ROEs expected to dilute to 11.5%/11.5% in
FY16/17 from 13.2%/12.9% presently.
§ Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of MYR15.20,
pegged to 1.5x proforma CY16 post-rights BVPS.
|
MY: Hong Leong Financial Group
(HLFG MK)
Share Price: MYR14.70
Target Price: MYR16.90
Recommendation: Buy
|
|
Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,549.2
|
4,490.9
|
4,757.5
|
4,969.6
|
|
Pre-provision
profit
|
2,583.1
|
2,490.7
|
2,676.5
|
2,795.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,706.9
|
1,620.7
|
1,696.0
|
1,730.2
|
|
Core FDEPS (MYR)
|
1.63
|
1.55
|
1.62
|
1.66
|
|
Core FDEPS
growth(%)
|
14.7
|
(5.0)
|
4.6
|
2.0
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.38
|
0.38
|
0.37
|
0.38
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
9.0
|
9.5
|
9.1
|
8.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
2.5
|
2.6
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
10.90
|
12.45
|
12.82
|
14.08
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.8
|
13.2
|
12.7
|
12.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
|
|
§ Rights price fixed at MYR11.60 with a 9-for-100 entitlement – 21%
discount to current share price.
§ At current price, investors are getting HLFG’s insurance and investment
banking businesses for free.
§ Maintain BUY with an unchanged SOP-derived TP of MYR16.90.
|
MY: Bursa Malaysia
(BURSA MK)
Share Price: MYR8.39
Target Price: MYR8.65
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Chew Hann Wong
(603) 2297 8686
wchewh@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
475.0
|
503.8
|
511.8
|
561.2
|
|
EBITDA
|
280.5
|
297.0
|
290.3
|
323.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
173.1
|
198.2
|
194.0
|
219.9
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
32.5
|
37.2
|
36.4
|
41.2
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
14.8
|
14.4
|
(2.2)
|
13.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
52.0
|
54.0
|
34.0
|
38.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
25.8
|
22.6
|
23.1
|
20.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.5
|
6.0
|
5.9
|
5.7
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
6.2
|
6.4
|
4.1
|
4.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
20.7
|
25.4
|
25.7
|
28.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
8.8
|
11.7
|
11.5
|
12.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.1
|
13.7
|
14.5
|
13.2
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
§ 3Q15 net profit marginally surprised on the
upside, coming from the derivatives business.
§ We maintain equity ADV forecasts, but lift
growth forecast for derivatives; FY15-17 net profit forecasts raised by
4-5%.
§ Our new TP is MYR8.65 (+5%) as we roll
forward valuation too. Bursa remains a HOLD.
|
MY: Nestle Malaysia
(NESZ MK)
Share Price: MYR72.08
Target Price: MYR68.80
Recommendation: Hold
|
|
Liew Wei Han
(603) 2297 8676
weihan.l@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
4,787.9
|
4,808.9
|
4,881.1
|
5,173.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
843.6
|
837.2
|
934.1
|
992.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
561.7
|
550.4
|
604.6
|
624.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
239.5
|
234.7
|
257.8
|
266.3
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
11.2
|
(2.0)
|
9.9
|
3.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
235.0
|
235.0
|
250.1
|
261.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
30.1
|
30.7
|
28.0
|
27.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
20.7
|
21.8
|
21.3
|
20.9
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
3.5
|
3.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
71.7
|
69.1
|
76.9
|
77.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
28.1
|
25.1
|
26.0
|
26.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
19.0
|
19.4
|
18.4
|
17.2
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
10.4
|
20.4
|
33.4
|
24.7
|
|
|
§ Domestic sales growth in 3Q15 driven mainly
by A&P efforts rather than recovery in consumer sentiment. Export
sales, however, seeing positive revenue momentum.
§ Trend of paying two interim and a final DPS
sustainable moving forward, we expect final DPS of 120sen.
§ Maintain HOLD with a higher DCF-TP of
MYR68.8 (+80sen).
|
MY: Icon Offshore
(ICON MK)
Share Price: MYR0.36
Target Price: MYR0.25
Recommendation: Sell
|
|
Thong Jung Liaw
(603) 2297 8688
tjliaw@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY13A
|
FY14A
|
FY15E
|
FY16E
|
|
Revenue
|
334.9
|
318.9
|
275.9
|
296.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
143.4
|
174.7
|
122.5
|
126.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
113.6
|
59.4
|
8.3
|
27.6
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
9.7
|
5.0
|
0.7
|
2.3
|
|
Core EPS growth
(%)
|
201.9
|
(47.7)
|
(86.0)
|
232.9
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
3.7
|
7.1
|
51.1
|
15.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
Net dividend yield
(%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
59.9
|
8.1
|
0.8
|
2.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
14.4
|
3.5
|
0.5
|
1.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
na
|
8.4
|
8.7
|
8.5
|
|
Net debt/equity
(%)
|
278.3
|
55.0
|
59.2
|
58.5
|
|
|
§ A 3-7 month charter value of MYR7.7m -
average DCRs of MYR25k are reflective of current market rates.
§ Market remains challenging. Optimising OSV
utilisation over high DCRs remains a key priority in managing cashflows.
§ Maintain SELL with an unchanged MYR0.25 TP
(9x 2016 PER).
|
MY: Malaysia Strategy
|
|
Chew Hann Wong
(603) 2297 8686
wchewh@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
§ Budget 2016 addresses a concern of ours, while
measures to support consumption and GDE expansion are positive.
§ Budget 2016 reaffirms our Overweight call on
construction; we have not changed forecasts, calls of any of our coverage.
§ We are encouraged, and have lifted YE targets
for the KLCI. Defensive strategy still, mindful of the external risks.
|
MY: Budget 2016
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
|
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
§ Budget deficit cut slightly to -3.1% of GDP
(2015E: -3.2%)
§ Fiscal discipline not at the expense of
economic growth and people’s well-being
§ Gradual budget deficit reduction going forward
i.e. averaging -2.7% of GDP in 2016-2018.
|
MY: Malaysia CPI, Sep ‘15
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
|
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
§ Headline inflation in Sep 2015 eased to
+2.6% YoY from +3.1% YoY a month earlier thanks to the drop in domestic
fuel prices.
§ But core inflation remain firm (Sep 2015:
+4.1% YoY; Aug 2015: +4.1% YoY), highlighting the underlying inflationary
pressures in the economy, especially with the impact of GST and weak MYR.
§ Maintain our 2015 and 2016 inflation
rate forecasts of 2.0%-2.5% and 2.7%-3%.
|
SG: Singapore CPI, Sep ‘15
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
|
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
§ Consumer prices fell for the 11th month
in Sep 2015 as it contracted by -0.6% YoY (Aug 2015: -0.8% YoY).
§ However core inflation (CPI
ex-accommodation and private road transport) rose to +0.6% YoY (Aug 2015:
+0.2% YoY).
§ We estimate headline CPI forecast this
year to range between -0.5%-0.0% (2015 YTD: -0.5%).
|
MY: Leading Indicator, Aug 2015
|
|
Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
|
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
|
|
|
|
|
|
§ Index of leading economic
indicators fell -0.2% YoY and -0.9% MoM in Aug 2015.
§ It slowed to +0.1% YoY in July-Aug 2015 from
+0.5% YoY in 2Q 2015, signaling slower growth in 3Q 2015 (2Q 2015: +4.9%
YoY).
§ Our full-year 2015 GDP growth forecast
of 4.9% factors in slower growth in 2H after +5.3% growth in 1H.
|
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