MALAYSIA: Intensifying
uncertainties weighing on market sentiments this year has led RAM Ratings
to downward revise their previous forecast for Malaysian gross private debt
securities (PDS) issuance (Islamic and conventional) from RM85-95 billion
(US$22.65-25.32 billion) to RM75-85 billion (US$19.99-22.65 billion) –
reflecting a weaker investment atmosphere.
A major driving force for the more conservative figures is the lingering
uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing
tapering plan which continues to squeeze global liquidity. Kristina Fong,
the head of research at RAM, explained to IFN that this – coupled with
capricious international oil prices – resulted in a significant withdrawal
of foreign investors from the Malaysian market since the beginning of the
year. “With no clear direction from the Fed – as to how much and when
they’d be implementing the plan – both investors and issuers are playing it
safe and assuming a wait and see approach,” added Fong.
Year-to-date PDS issuance tumbled 14.2% year-on-year to RM32.1 billion
(US$8.55 billion) despite a pickup in sales to RM9.5 billion (US$2.53
billion) in May as compared to RM7.8 billion (US$2.08 billion) the month
before. According to data from Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia, gross Islamic
PDS offerings in May 2015 dropped to RM14.7 billion (US$3.92 billion) from
RM20.3 billion (US$5.41 billion) registered in May 2014. This declining
trend also emerged within the Islamic paper-dominated quasi-sovereign space
which fell 22.6% year-on-year (on a year-to-date basis). Government
securities issuance, however, fared better: as at the end of May, sovereign
issuances were up 10.4% to RM52.2 billion (US$13.91 billion), with the
majority (58.9%) of long-term facilities being Shariah compliant. For 2015
(as at the 31st May), the ratio of Islamic and conventional
government securities tendered is 56:44.
While RAM believes that market players for the next six months would be
more circumspect in terms of timing of potential debt issues and investing
as their decisions are likely to be overshadowed by downside domestic and
external risks, the rating agency notes that local investors and monetary
conditions should remain supportive of the debt capital market. “The
expected volatility of the equity market may compel investors to switch to
safer assets such as fixed income securities,” opined the agency.
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