FX
Global
The EUR fell 1.5% against the USD amid optimism over a Greek deal by the
end of the week. The pair steadied around 1.1180 this morning while DAX close
0.7% higher. US data was mixed overnight with a larger-than-expected fall
in durable goods order by -1.8%m/m for May. However, the details were not as
bad as the headline. Stripping away the transport component, durable goods rose
0.5% in the month. Preliminary PMI-mfg slipped to 53.4 for Jun from 54.0 in
May. On the other hand, new home sales in the last month surpassed the
consensus with a print of 546K and an upward revision to the previous figure.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing index also improved to 6 in Jun from previous 1.
The dollar dominated the FX space, with its upmove underpinned b Fed
Powell’s comments of a 50% rate hike in Sep. The exception was AUD which
managed to eke out a 0.11% gain on Tue. Correlation with oil prices broke down
yesterday with Brent up 1.75% tp USD64.45/bbl. In Asia, IDR gained against the
rest of regional peers after Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Warjiyo voiced the
central bank’s commitment for a steady rupiah against the USD. BI expects
rupiah to average 13,000-13,200 against the USD this year.
China’s flash HSBC PMI-mfg printed 49.6, firmer than expected though
still in contractionary region. Shanghai Comp closed 2.2% higher on Tue.
Elsewhere, USD/MYR pulled back to a low of 3.7315 in late Tue after some
rumours of Malaysia averting a downgrade from Fitch. However, the pairing is
back on the upmove after the erroneous report was withdrawn.
Eyes are still on the Eurozone with optimism fuelling the equity
markets. Currencies tend to take less direct hit. In US, the third reading of
1Q GDP is due. Nearer to home, BOJ released Minutes of its May meeting. The
rest of Asia has a rather quiet data calendar save for Vietnam’s Jun CPI.
Currencies
DXY – Range; Upside Bias. Indeed USD squeezed higher
on better than expected new home sales (more than 7-year high), strong Richmond
fed index and core durable goods order (in line with estimates although
headline durable goods orders disappointed). Day ahead could see some upside
bias; Daily momentum and stochastics remain bullish bias. Intra-day range of
94.90 – 96.00 expected. We continue to reiterate our view for the first rate
hike in Sep as data continues to suggest that growth path remains intact. We
also believe that the pace of tightening with a 25bps hike followed by a pause
within the quarter to assess the impact is the likely normalization path Fed
will take, given that Fed will take into consideration domestic growth and
external environment – China rebalancing risk, Greek crisis and USD strength
into consideration. The latest FOMC statement remains consistent with our house
view. Day ahead brings 1Q GDP (Wed); jobless claims; May PCE core; Jun Kansas
City Fed Mfg Activity; Jun Prelim composite/services PMI (Thu); Jun Univ. of Michigan
Sentiment; Fed’s George speaks (Fri).
EUR/USD – DAX Goes Up; EUR Goes Down. EUR took a turn lower (breaking below 1.12-handle,
traded an overnight low of 1.1135; last at 1.1175) amid strong discontentment
from Greek politicians (Syriza party members) and broad USD strength overnight.
It appears that a pattern may have emerged – when German equities goes up
(risk-on sentiment), the EUR heads lower and the vice versa is true. While it
is hard to unlearn market convention (risk on, buy high-beta currency), but it
does appear that EUR has regained its funding currency status once again. It
may sound strange but think about the ‘general rule of thumb’ of selling JPY in
risk-on environment and buying JPY in risk-off environment. And both EUR and
JPY are in the midst of conducting QE. SO if we get a Greek deal, post-deal
sentiment could see a rally on risk assets (DAX included), and that suggests
EUR could head lower, the reverse in true as well. That said we will continue
to watch DAX (as a proxy of risk sentiment) and Greek development (driver of
risk sentiment) and trade EUR (as a second derivative to the proxy). We
mentioned that while Greek had worked out a proposal, this is pending approval
from the Troika (which is expected to meet again on Thu ahead of the Council
meeting). Even if the deal is on, Greece could potentially face political
backlash from its own party (given that the mandate given to the ruling party
(Syriza/ PM Tsipras) is anti-austerity. We continue to caution for choppy
price action amid thin liquidity. Next support targets 1.1135 (50 DMA), 1.1060/70 levels
(100 DMA and 38.2% fibo of 1.1467 – 1.0819). Resistance at 1.1220 (61.8% fibo)
before 1.1467 (May 2015 high). We caution that a break above those levels could
see EUR closer to 1.17/1.18 levels. Week ahead brings 1Q FR GDP; Jun GE
IFO (Wed); GE Gfk consumer confidence (Thu); GE May retail sales; EC May money
supply (Fri).
GBP/USD – Profit-Taking. GBP continues to ease from recent highs; traded down
to low of 1.5706 overnight (1 big figure lower from the night before) before
closing around 1.5729 on disappointing CBI factory orders (fell to lowest level
since mid-2013) amid broad USD strength. We continue to cautious for
profit-taking given the recent run-up. Next support seen at 1.5660 (76.4% fibo
of May peak to Jun trough). Over the medium term we remain bullish. We remain
better buyers on dips, targeting next objective at 1.5970. Week ahead brings
May BBA loans for house purchase (Wed); CBI Jun reported sales (Thu).
USD/JPY – Range. USDJPY’s climb higher back above 124-levels was not sustained overnight
and is easing back below to hover around 123.80 at last sight. Intraday
momentum is still bullish though stochastics is at overbought levels still,
which could possible limit downsides ahead. Kuroda’s comments on 10 Jun that
stemmed JPY weakness continues to weigh on the pair. May BOJ minutes
released this morning had limited impact on the pair as it contained no
surprises or hints of further easing measures with the board members fairly
confident of the 2% inflation target being reached around 1H FY 2016. Pair is
currently within a thin intraday ichimoku cloud, suggesting that price action
could be rangy ahead. Further dips today should be limited to around 123.50. We
remain better buyers of the dollar on dips. With our resistance at 123.80 taken
out, next hurdle is at 124.15.
AUD/USD – Caught in a Range. AUD was back on the upmove and was the only major to
gain against the USD, last seen at 0.7750. The pair ended Tue with a doji and
extending upmove. Expect an upside bias in this pair with a possible squeeze
towards the 0.78-figure. Beyond intra-day trade, we see two-way action
within 0.7680-0.7800. Little other key data in the week ahead. We reiterate
that beyond the near-term, a clearance of the 0.78-figure could be a double
confirmation of the double bottom pattern formed in the past two weeks and the
pair could be poised to make a move up towards 0.7880 (50% fibo of May high to
Jun low).
USD/CAD – Suspended
in The Cloud. USDCAD is still sticky around 1.2320, still suspended in
the daily ichimoku cloud. This pairing is in a tug of war between a
stronger dollar and firmer oil prices. The 1.2357-barrier was tested yesterday
but the pair was unable to sustain above the level, last seen around 1.2330. A
break out of the 1.2100-1.2380 range is needed for stronger directional bias
beyond the near-term. There is no key data due this week.
NZD/USD – Give the Kiwi a Break! NZD tested low of 0.6815 overnight before
rebounding towards 0.6860 levels at time of writing. While we continue to
reiterate our view for further downside pressure on the NZD on a combination of
drivers including further expectation of RBNZ cutting rates again in Jul on
weak dairy prices, falling PPI amid weakening demand, we caution for potential
upside squeeze in the NZD. Squeeze higher could re-visit 0.6980 – 0.7020
levels, which we look to lean against strength for a move towards 0.65
objective. We still expect at least another 25bps cut and the next cut could come
as soon as the next meeting in Jul. Data for week remaining - May trade data
(Fri).
Asia ex Japan Currencies
The SGD NEER trades 0.40% above the implied mid-point of 1.3496 with the
top end estimated at 1.3228 and the floor at 1.3764.
USD/SGD – Bullish Bias. USDSGD retreated towards the 1.34-handle proved
temporary with the pair now bouncing higher at 1.3419. Intraday MACD is still
indicating bullish momentum and stochastics at overbought levels. Pair has
taken out the 1.34-handle (50DMA) and could be poised for further up-moves
towards 1.3530-50 levels (100DMA and 50% Fibo) as we had noted previously.
Support around 1.3285 (200DMA) should hold firm intraday. Bias to buy on dips
still. May CPI out yesterday showed headline inflation falling 0.4% y/y – 7th
straight month of decline – and core inflation moderating to 0.1% y/y..
AUD/SGD – Awaiting A Breakout? AUD/SGD bounced from the lower bound of the
1.0300-1.0500 range, last seen around 1.0390. A dearth of fresh catalyst on the
data front could mean more range-trading within the 1.0300-1.0520 band. A break
of this range is needed for better directional clue. This cross is capped by
the ichimoku cloud. On the other hand, a clearance of support at 1.03-figure
opens the way towards Mar low of 1.0243.
SGD/MYR – Waning Bullish Momentum. Cross continues to trade near all-time highs of 2.80
amid Ringgit weakness. While SGDMYR could face further upside pressure possibly
beyond 2.80 towards 2.82 levels, we caution for potential technical
correction given that daily stochastics is now in overbought areas while daily
momentum appears to be waning. A technical pullback could see the cross ease
towards 2.7350 levels (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 2015 trough to
peak).
USD/MYR – Watch Fitch. USDMYR yoyo-ed just before the onshore
spot close yesterday. Ringgit enjoyed a relief rally to 3.7330 levels (vs. USD)
on headlines that Fitch kept Malaysia sovereign rating unchanged; puts rating
on negative watch. Clarity was restored after Bloomberg puts up a headline from
Fitch confirming that rating review is still on and will conclude by end-Jun;
no comments till rating is confirmed. Pair opened higher tracking USD strength
overnight; last at 3.7560. Day ahead pair could push higher towards 3.77
levels amid USD strength. Support remains at 3.7350. Domestic concerns is
expected to keep the pair supported. For the remaining of the month we continue
to keep an eye on Fitch review of the country’s sovereign rating; likely to be
due sometime between now and end-Jun. Expect upside pressure to ease gradually
should rating review stays status quo.
USD/KRW – Range. USDKRW gapped slightly higher in the open
(1106.4 vs. 1104.7 close yest). Day ahead could see the pair trade range
between 1105 – 1115; with upside bias amid mild USD strength; 4-hourly
stochastics momentum are mild bullish bias. Over medium term, we continue to
reiterate our bearish view for KRW - on concerns over MERS weigh on
growth/domestic consumption/ tourism/ foreign investment against a backdrop of
subdued inflation, weak activity data, soft exports, weak JPY undercut Korea’s
export competitiveness, and rising household debt (165% of annual household
disposable income). USD strength on Fed rate lift-off in Sep (house view) could
further provide support for the pair.
USD/CNH – In
Range. USD/CNH drifted lower to levels around 6.2010 with offshore yuan
commanding a 60 pips premium to CNY. USDCNH support is still seen at 6.1990
(200DMA). An ichimoku cloud is forming above price action that could cap
upside, which suggest rangy trades ahead. We continue to hold the view that the
central bank wants to ensure a steady yuan. Pair is still within the broader
consolidative 6.19-6.21 range. On 23 Jun, USD/CNY was fixed 15 pips
higher at 6.1119 (vs. previous 6.1104). CNYMYR was fixed 28 pips higher at
0.6006 (vs. 0.5975). The US-China strategic and economic dialogue started
in Washington and Vice Premier Wang Yang was quoted saying that a dialogue that
doesn’t achieve much might leave everyone involved unhappy but it is still preferable
to confrontation. Earlier in Asia, flash HSBC PMI-mfg surpassed expectations
with a print of 49.6.
USD/INR – Downside Risks. USD/INR was hardly moved on Tue and managed to crept a tad higher to
close at 63.6050. Prices are still cushioned by the bullish cloud at 63.57
which coincides with the 50-DMA. Daily momentum indicators show bearish
conditions now. The 1-month NDF steadied around 63.80, already in the cloud and
below the 50-DMA. Price action is biased to the upside for both spot prices and
NDF, underpinned by dollar strength. This could be temporary as we eye the
break of 63.60 for a reassertion by the bears in spot prices. The India
Meteorological department express confidence in its July and Aug rain forecast,
sticking to 88% monsoon rain forecast, although rainfall in Jun was 21% above
average.
USD/IDR – Capped. USD/IDR is edging higher this morning towards 13280, playing
catch-up with its regional peers. Both intraday MACD and slow stochastic remains
bearish bias that could possibly cap upside ahead. Still downside
pressure on the pair remains as domestic concerns (lacklustre growth and
persistent current account deficit) weigh. Look for support still at 13250
before the next at 13200 and topside to be capped by 13350. 1-month NDF is
bouncing higher this morning towards 13350 levels with intraday MACD and
stochastics indicating little bias in either direction. The JISDOR was fixed
slightly lower at 13316 yesterday from Mon’s 13318. Foreign interest in
Indonesian assets was mixed with investors selling a net USD8.57mn in equities
but added a net IDR3.02tn to their outstanding holding of government debt on 22
Jun (latest data available).
USD/PHP – Edging Higher. USD/PHP is edging higher this morning, playing
catch-up with its regional peers. Currently sighted around 45.180, intraday
MACD is showing no strong momentum though stochastics is indicating mild
bullish bias. BSP meeting on Thu remains in focus and we expect the central
bank to keep the policy rate steady at 4.0% as domestic growth momentum remains
on track and inflation manageable. Unless BSP surprises, we do not expect a
significant impact on the pair ahead. Look for 44.880-45.270 range to hold. We
remain buyers of the pair on dips. 1-month NDF is climbing higher this morning,
currently sighted around 45.250, with both intraday momentum and stochastics
showing bullish bias. Foreign selling of equities continued with a net
USD17.76mn in equities sold yesterday.
USD/THB – Two-Way Trades. USD/THB took out our resistance at 33.760
overnight and attempted to take out our weekly resistance at 33.810 as well.
Pair has since eased to hover around 33.765 currently. Intrady momentum remains
bullish though stochastics is now at overbought levels, suggesting that further
dips could be limited. In the absence of domestic catalyst, pair should
continue to track global events and dollar moves ahead. Look for two-way trades
ahead with resistance around 33.810 ahead of the next at 33.920 while support
around 33.700 before the next at 33.610. Foreign interest in Thai assets was
mixed yesterday with foreign funds selling a net THB0.61bn in equities and
buying a net THB0.46bn in government debt.
Rates
Malaysia
Government bond curve ended 1-2bps lower with trades concentrated at the
belly. In the afternoon, yields were lower by 2-3bps after a misinterpretation
of Fitch’s Asia Pacific sovereign outlook report by a major news provider.
Bonds got sold back down once players realized it is a mere reiteration of the country’s
outlook and not a new update from the rating agency.
The local IRS market remained quiet and nothing got traded again. 3M
KLIBOR stayed at 3.69%.
PDS space was slightly more active, with some buying interest for long
dated AAA names. Plus 28s and 27s changed hands at 4.61% and 4.55% respectively
while Rantau 2029s traded at 4.64%. GG names still saw some good bidding
interest. A good amount of Prasarana 20s traded lower than its previous MTM at
3.96%. Krung Thai’s AA2 Basel lll Tier 2 subdebt was priced at 5.10% with the
issuance upsized to MYR1.0b from MYR500m.
Singapore
SGS market generally saw an offer tone to it with yields closing 1-6bps
higher across the curve. The SGD IRS got paid up and levels rose 2-5bps.
Asian credit space went on strong with the Greece issue being postponed
further. Market seems to be buying any available papers, with most Chinese IGs
trading tighter. Despite the weak UST overnight, INDON sovereigns had no
problem finding buyers and prices ended unchanged. China Life Insurance has
begun its roadshow for the upcoming issuance. We also saw Bank of China
announce its mandate of several banks for a multi-currency/multi-tranche senior
note issuance. New issuances in the market yesterday: 1) Baidu (A3) issuing 5y
and 10y USD with guidance at T5+160bps and T10+200bps respectively. Judging
from where Tencent is trading, the new issuances look cheap with 20+bps upside.
We recommend to switch out of old BIDU 22 to these; 2) Singtel Group Treasury
(Aa3) pricing 10y USD at T10+110bps. We think the pricing is tight but the
issuance may still do well due to scarcity and the strong Temasek background;
and 3) Export-Import Bank of Korea (Aa3) doing a 5.5y deal and a retap of its
2026 issuance. The 5.5y is guiding at T5+105bps while the 2026 retap is guiding
at T10+110bps.
Indonesia
Indonesia bond market closed with a slump in prices as bidder which
failed to win during the auction might have aggressively purchased the offered
series through secondary bond market. Due to the auction yesterday also, the
IDR currency appreciated by 51 points to Rp13,255 per USD. However, we see that
1Q 15 U.S. GDP publications would be the main event this week and would
determine further heading of Indonesia bond market. We see potential chances of
profit taking during the day. 5-yr, 15-yr, 10-yr, 15-yr and 20-yr benchmark
series yield stood at 8.025%, 8.235%, 8.338% and 8.418% while 2y yield shifts
down to 7.778%. Trading volume at secondary market was seen heavy at government
segments amounting Rp27,231 bn with FR0053 (6y) as the most tradable bond.
FR0053 total trading volume amounting Rp9,072 tn with 80x transaction frequency
and closed at 99.737 yielding 8.304%.
Indonesian government conducted their conventional auctions yesterday
and received incoming bids of Rp40.01 tn bids versus its target issuance of
Rp12.00 tn or oversubscribed by 3.3x. However, DMO only awarded Rp18.00 tn bids
for its 8mo SPN was sold at a weighted average yield (WAY) of 6.69921%, 6y
FR0053 at 8.24853%, 11y FR0056 at 8.36990%, 15y FR0071 at 8.42989% while 20y
FR0068 was sold at 8.53585%. Incoming bids were mostly clustered on the FR0056
(11y). No bids were rejected during the auction. Bid-to-cover ratio during the
auction came in at 1.11X – 4.20X. Foreign incoming bids during the auction were
noted Rp13.69 tn or 34.2% of total incoming bids. However, only Rp6.33 tn bid
(35.2% of total awarded bids) were awarded to foreign investors. Heavy demand
occurred as DMO offered FR0053 and FR0056 series which is expected to be
upcoming 5y and 10y benchmark series in 2016. Till the date of this report,
Indonesian government has raised approx. Rp79.02 tn worth of debt through bond
auction which represents 94.6% of the 2Q 15 target of Rp83.50 tn.
Corporate bond trading traded heavy amounting Rp1,086 bn. TAFS01ACN2 (Shelf registration I Toyota Astra Financial Services Phase II Year
2015; A serial bond; Rating: AAA(idn)) was the top actively traded corporate
bond with total trading volume amounted Rp155 bn yielding 8.499%
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.