Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2015-02-25)

Daily 25 February 2015 TOP VIEWS Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) | TP Revision TCL Communication (2618 HK) | TP Revision UMW Oil & Gas (UMWOG MK) | Company Update Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK) | Rating Change Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) Plenty of bullets Share Price: HKD78.25 | Target Price: HKD87 (+11) | MCap (USD): 21.5B | ADTV (USD): 25M Net recurring earnings HKD8.1b, -28% YoY, slightly below market expectations. Net profit HKD61b, +446%, due to spin-off of HKEI stake. Media reported CKI (1038 HK) pulled out of bidding for Swedish grid. We are still optimistic PA can buy decent projects in Europe and Australia, especially given the recent depreciation of the AUD and EUR. Maintain BUY and raise TP to HKD87 after factoring in earnings from Australian Gas Network and higher market value of HKEI (2638 HK). Click here for report » TCL Communication (2618 HK) At a crossroads Share Price: HKD7.46 | Target Price: HKD10.00 (+34%) | MCap (USD): 1.2B | ADTV (USD): 3M Lowering TP to HKD10 from HKD11, revising down EPS forecasts by 10%/20%/30% for FY14/15/16; Factoring in slimmer margins, higher opex and potential competition. Global EM-ex-China strategy allows TCL to grow market share rapidly, but margins & profits may trail on new product mix. Valuations reflect potential competition despite relatively reasonable fundamentals. Should TCL continue to deliver solid earnings, its share price may resume outperformance. Click here for report » UMW Oil & Gas (UMWOG MK) Abundant opportunities Share Price: MYR2.68 | Target Price: MYR3.45 (+29%) | MCap (USD): 1.6B| ADTV (USD): 3M Lowering FY15/16/17 net profit forecasts by 7%/6%/6% for higher effective tax rates, weaker USD/MYR. Sea of opportunities in 2015: (i) 33 contracts in SEA to expire and 13-18 old rigs to be scrapped, (ii) sub-yard price for new speculative rigs and (iii) tapping into the Middle East market. Maintain BUY with an unchanged SOP-based TP of MYR3.45. Click here for report » Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK) Second year of disappointment Share Price: MYR2.94 | Target Price: MYR2.44 (-17%) | MCap (USD): 3.0B| ADTV (USD): 3M FY14 core net profit of c.MYR131m below expectations � 2nd year of earnings disappointment. Lacks short-term catalysts to drive earnings growth. Downgrade to SELL with a reduced TP of MYR2.44 (from MYR3.00) on unchanged 16x FY16 PER target. Click here for report » COMPANY NOTES Indonesia Coal | NEUTRAL AEON Co. (M) (AEON MK) | Company Update AirAsia X Bhd (AAX MK) | Results Review Nestle Malaysia (NESZ MK) | Company Update TSH Resources (TSH MK) | Results Review Phoenix Petroleum Philippines (PNX PM) | Results Review Bumitama Agri (BAL SP) | Results Review Genting Singapore (GENS SP) | Results Review PACC Offshore Services Holdings (POSH SP) | Company Update SIIC Environment (SIIC SP) | Results Review Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB) | Results Review Land & Houses (LH TB) | Results Review Indonesia Coal Sector Update Another tax? Maintain NEUTRAL for lack of catalysts. ADRO (BUY, TP IDR1,400) still our top pick for low cost structure, lower regulatory risks & strong balance sheet. Government could resort to export taxes, more effective than royalty hikes, to raise state revenue. ITMG & PTBA would be hurt. Click here for report » AEON Co. (M) (AEON MK) Cautious ahead of GST Share Price: MYR3.18 | Target Price: MYR3.05 (-4%) | MCap (USD): 1.2B | ADTV (USD): 0.4M Targets three new store openings in FY15-16. Current valuations fair following drop in share price; positive SSSG sustained but lack of near-term earnings catalyst. Upgrade to HOLD with an unchanged TP of MYR3.05 (20x FY15 PER). Click here for report » AirAsia X Bhd (AAX MK) Disappoints again Share Price: MYR0.62 | Target Price: MYR0.46 (-26%) | MCap (USD): 404M | ADTV (USD): 1M FY14 core net loss of MYR514m (>23x YoY) was a big miss to our and consensus expectations. Company is strapped for capital, the upcoming rights-issue may not be entirely sufficient, in our view. Maintain SELL, with a lower target price of MYR0.46 (from MYR0.49) post earnings revision. Click here for report » Nestle Malaysia (NESZ MK) Challenging 1H15 Share Price: MYR73.30 | Target Price: MYR68.00 (-7%) | MCap (USD): 4.7B | ADTV (USD): 0.3M Positively, export sales expected to stabilize. However, GST and price reduction campaign starting 1 Mar could pressure sales and margins in the near term. Maintain HOLD but with an unchanged TP of MYR68. Click here for report » TSH Resources (TSH MK) Fundamentals still intact Share Price: MYR2.25 | Target Price: MYR2.45 (+9%) | MCap (USD): 836M | ADTV (USD): 0.2M 4Q14 largely in line. Nudge down FY15 EPS by 5% after revising output forecast. Medium term growth prospect remains intact. Reiterate BUY with unchanged MYR2.45 TP based on 19x FY16 PER. Click here for report » Phoenix Petroleum Philippines (PNX PM) FY14 results below expectations Share Price: PHP3.89 | Target Price: PHP7.05(+81%) | MCap (USD): 127M | ADTV (USD): 0.1M Transfer coverage to Michael Bengson. FY14 results below expectations due to decline in sales volume and higher finance costs. Our forecasts and target price are under review pending release of the company�s 17A filing. Click here for report » Bumitama Agri (BAL SP) Good harvest Share Price: SGD1.02 | Target Price: SGD1.30 (+28%) | MCap (USD): 1.3B | ADTV (USD): 0.3M Excluding forex & FV losses from biological assets, FY14 core PATMI was within. Expect 11% core EPS growth for FY15 on 18% FFB nucleus growth amid flat CPO ASPs. Cut FY15E-16E EPS by 6% for higher cost guidance. Maintain BUY with lower SGD1.30 TP from SGD1.38 on unchanged 13x FY16E EPS. Catalysts from FFB output growth. Click here for report » Genting Singapore (GENS SP) Very rough quarter Share Price: SGD1.05 | Target Price: SGD1.08 (+4%) | MCap (USD): 9.4B | ADTV (USD): 14M 4Q14 the worst quarter on record on lower VIP volume, low VIP win rates & record provisions. FY14 EPS at 79% of our FY14E. Cut FY15E/16E by 3-4% for lower VIP volume. Maintain HOLD with support from share buybacks. Lower TP by 4% to SGD1.08 on unchanged 9x FY15E EV/EBITDA. Click here for report » PACC Offshore Services Holdings (POSH SP) Mexico JV, SSAV swing factors Share Price: SGD0.54 | Target Price: SGD0.65 (+21%) | MCap (USD): 717M | ADTV (USD): 0.6M Catalysts in 2H15 from any Mexico JV turnaround & deployment of second SSAV. Short-term margin pressure. Second SSAV now assumed to contribute only from FY16. Cut FY15E/16E EPS by 39%/2%. TP lowered from SGD0.81 to SGD0.65. Now at 0.7x FY15E P/BV from 9x PER. Maintain BUY. Click here for report » SIIC Environment (SIIC SP) Continues to deliver Share Price: SGD0.13 | Target Price: SGD0.20 (+53%) | MCap (USD): 924M | ADTV (USD): 5M Good FY14 results. Revenue & net profit beat our forecasts by 5%. FY15E-16E EPS raised by less than 1%. To benefit from further industry consolidation. Buying opportunity after recent sell-down. Reiterate BUY. TP still at SGD0.20 or 30x FY15E EPS. Click here for report » Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB) Near expectations, eyes on WMC Share Price: THB8.60 | Target Price: THB10.50 (+22%) | MCap (USD): 658M | ADTV (USD): 0.7M 4Q14 contributed 28% of FY14 (vs 23% in FY13). THB0.07 DPS declared, bringing FY14 DPS to THB0.12; 57% dividend payout ratio (vs 70% in FY13). Ex-dividend date is 30 Apr. 4Q14 sales/NPAT rose 13%/8% YoY, leading FY14 sales/NPAT growth to 13%/-11% YoY. Operating and EBITDA increased 6% and 10% YoY with margin of 26% (-54bps YoY, +169bps QoQ). Maintain BUY and trim TP to THB10.5, implying 36x PER, 6x P/BV, and 1.1x PEG for FY15F. Patient traffic at World Medical Centre (WMC) is improving from FY14. Click here for report » Land & Houses (LH TB) 4Q14 below expectations Share Price: THB10.50 | Target Price: THB10.50 (+0%) | MCap (USD): 3.5B | ADTV (USD): 6M Maintain HOLD and SOTP-based TP of THB10.5; limited upside and no catalyst on both presales and earnings in FY15. Prefer LPN (TP THB27) and QH (TP THB6.0). 4Q14 core profit was THB1.8b, up 3% QoQ and 23% YoY. This is below our and BB consensus by 10% and 8% due to lowerthan-expected gross margin. Announced 2H14 dividend of THB0.4/sh (3.8% yield). XD date is on 29 Apr. Click here for report »     Click here for full Regional Daily report »