Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2015-02-18)

Daily 18 February 2015 TOP VIEWS Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) | Rating change Malaysia Construction, Property | Sector update Quality Houses (QH TB) | Results preview Lopez Holdings Corp (LPZ PM) Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) Raise TP; Upgrade to BUY Share Price: IDR6,675 | Target Price: IDR7,500 (+12%) | MCap (USD): 9.8B | ADTV (USD): 10M Will still trade at disc. to peers even at our new IDR7,500 TP (FY15F: 11.5x PER & 2.1x PBV). BUY with 13% EPS growth. Fundamental ratios improving. BBNI is set to grow on a cleaner balance sheet. New board unlikely to alter business direction. Click here for report » Malaysia Construction, Property Shining Pearl of the Orient Sector update Construction will be the immediate beneficiary of the PTMP; winner of the PTP role to be announced by September. Properties are set to gain from the infrastructure boom over the longer term, but short-term outlook remains challenging. Maintain Overweight on Construction, Neutral on Property; top BUYs are Gamuda (MYR6.00 TP), SP Setia (MYR4.07 TP). Click here for report » Quality Houses (QH TB) Betting on Q Sukhumvit; Top Pick Share Price: THB4.10 | Target Price: THB6.00 (+46%) | MCap (USD): 1.2B | ADTV (USD): 5M Keep BUY & SOTP-based THB6 TP. We expect strong earnings growth of 16% YoY in FY15F supported by aggressive THB33b (+40% YoY) launch plan and high condo backlog at THB5.5b. Expect 4Q14F net profit of THB701m (EPS THB0.08), down 34% QoQ and 4% YoY. Results out 24 Feb. ST catalyst should come from launch of Q Sukhumvit worth THB9.4b in March. Expected take-up rate is 15% vs c.25% avg. for its condos so we see upside to this number. Click here for report » Lopez Holdings Corp (LPZ PM) Raise NAV with ABS upgrade Share Price: PHP8.16 | Target Price: PHP14.90 (+83%) | MCap (USD): 846M | ADTV (USD): 0.7M Raise target NAV and TP by 13% to PHP14.90 after raising our TP for ABS. LPZ remains a cheaper and more liquid alternative to ABS. Stock offers greatest upside among all Lopez-controlled companies under our coverage. Click here for report » COMPANY NOTES COSCO Pacific (1199 HK) | Company update SREI Infrastructure Finance (SREI IN) | Results review Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) | Results review Petronas Gas (PTG MK) | Results review ABS-CBN (ABS PM) | TP revision PACC Offshore Services Holdings (POSH SP) | Results review Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) | Rating change KrungThai Card (KTC TB) | Results review COSCO Pacific (1199 HK) Outperformed export growth Share Price: HKD11.24 | Target Price: HKD13.30 (+18%) | MCap (USD): 4.3B | ADTV (USD): 7M January throughput growth slowed to 6% YoY, in line with decelerating exports, but still outperformed latter by 9.3ppt. We forecast ex-exceptional earnings growth to accelerate to 12% in FY15, from 4% in FY14 on new terminal contribution and improvement in loss-making projects. With comfortable FY15F gearing of 34.8%, acquisitions of value-enhancing projects will serve as potential catalysts. Click here for report » SREI Infrastructure Finance (SREI IN) Look beyond FY15 Share Price: INR41 | Target Price: INR70 (+70%) | MCap (USD): 334M | ADTV (USD): 0.9M Maintain BUY with TP of INR70 based on 1x FY16F P/BV. 3Q earnings were subdued owing to lacklustre growth in both the equipment finance (CE) and project finance business. CE business witnessed drop in disbursements and higher NPL accretion. NIMs expanded as cost of funds declined. With completion of coal auction and pickup in infrastructure projects; loan growth will revive in FY16-17. Monetisation of investments in telecom business (VIOM) is at the last leg of transaction. Balance sheet would strength post the deal. (Full report will be out soon) Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) FY14 results in line Share Price: IDR15,425 | Target Price: IDR13,000 (-16%) | MCap (USD): 3.5B | ADTV (USD): 4M FY14 earnings of IDR1.4 (+23% YoY) made up 96% of our estimates. Gross revenue increased 13% YoY on 10.7% SSSG and six net stores addition. EBIT margin improved by 70bps. Company expects to add 12-14 stores in 2015F and to enter e-commerce by mid-year. DPR may also be increased. Click here for report » Petronas Gas (PTG MK) Boosted by Kimanis tax credits Share Price: MYR22.38 | Target Price: MYR24.00 (+7%) | MCap (USD): 12.4B | ADTV (USD): 7M FY14 net profit was boosted by c.MYR200+m from tax credits at Kimanis. Else, net profit should have been in line. A 15sen DPS was declared, bringing FY14 DPS to 55sen, unchanged from FY13. Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged at MYR24.00; PTG remains a stock with a very stable earnings profile. Click here for report » ABS-CBN (ABS PM) Pioneering the digital TV switch Share Price: PHP62.55 | Target Price: PHP74.00 (+18%) | MCap (USD): 1.2B | ADTV (USD): 0.1M Raise TP 29% to PHP74, ahead of strong 2015F-16F earnings momentum from election-related ads. Digital TV launch in key areas to help address weak analog signal reception that could lead to higher audience share. Potential earnings upside from higher airtime revenues. BUY. Click here for report » PACC Offshore Services Holdings (POSH SP) Necessary pains Share Price: SGD0.53 | Target Price: SGD0.81 (under review) | MCap (USD): 711M | ADTV (USD): 0.6M FY14 missed on 4Q14 loss. Rates & utilisation lower across the board. Maiden DPS of 1.5 SGD cts. Idle Mexican vessels & uncontracted second SSAV are overhangs. BUY rating & SGD0.81 TP, at 9x FY15E EPS, under review. Briefing on 24 Feb. Click here for report » Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) Utilities takes lead; U/G to HOLD Share Price: SGD4.20 | Target Price: SGD4.16 (-1%) | MCap (USD): 5.5B | ADTV (USD): 10M FY14 in line. DPS of 16.0 SGD cts. Singapore power market still competitive. Focusing overseas. Upgrade to HOLD from SELL as we await catalysts from overseas Utilities projects. SOTP TP raised from SGD4.00 to SGD4.16 on updated market values & net debt. Click here for report » KrungThai Card (KTC TB) Sky is the limit; Top Pick Share Price: THB77.75 | Target Price: THB100.00 (+28%) | MCap (USD): 615M | ADTV (USD): 3M 4Q14 net profit jumped 86% YoY to THB425m, in line with our forecast but beating consensus by 10%; FY14 core EPS grew 69% to THB6.8, announced DPS of THB2.75 or 3.5% dividend yield - XD on 26 Feb and payment on 14 May. Raise FY15F earnings by 11% after lowering credit cost assumption to 8.95% from 9.35% on the better asset quality. Maintain BUY and raise TP to THB100 (Street high), implying 11.6x 2015 PER, 2.9x P/BV, 27% ROE. Top Pick for consumer finance. Click here for report » ECONOMICS Singapore Exports, Jan �15 Singapore Final 4Q 2014 & Full-Year GDP Indonesia BI Rate Report Singapore Exports, Jan �15 Positive beginning to 2015 Economics NODX and NORX rose by +4.3% YoY and +12.7% YoY in Jan 2015 on higher electronics and pharmaceuticals shipments as petrochemicals exports affected by crude oil price plunge. Record trade surplus of USD8.5b as imports fell -13.4% due to the -41.8% YoY fall in oil import bills. Expect NODX to grow 2%-3% this year (2014: -0.7%). Click here for report » Singapore Final 4Q 2014 & Full-Year GDP Revised upwards as expected Economics 4Q 2014 and full-year real GDP were came in better than the advanced estimates. Nonetheless, the economy faces a cross-current of headwinds and tailwinds Cut our 2015 GDP growth forecast to +2.5% from +3.0%. Click here for report » Indonesia BI Rate Report Unexpected Cut Economics At the Board of Governors� Meeting on 17 Feb 2015, Bank Indonesia unexpectedly cut the BI rate to 7.50%. This is consistent with efforts to control inflation towards its target of 4�1% in 2015 and 2016, as well as manage the current account deficit to a more sustainable level. Bank Indonesia�s policy in 2015 will continue to focus on maintaining macroeconomic and financial system stability through efforts to strengthen the monetary, macro prudential and payment system policy mix. Click here for report » OTHERS Tech-Tracks Tech-Tracks Asian markets buoyant ahead of CNY Technical US markets remains steady despite worries over Greece�s debt talks with the ECB, which have hit an impasse. Crude oil�s reversal towards USD60/bbl helped to buoy market sentiments in February. Although emerging markets continue to be plagued by worries of Greece failing to reach a deal as its debt deadline looms, this has been a positive catalyst driving funds flow to Asia ex Japan, particularly over the last fortnight. Top BUYs: Riverstone Holdings Limited (RSTON SP), Fosun International (656 HK), TNG Investment and Trading JSC (TNG VN), Energy Absolute PCL (EA TB), PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk (SSMS IJ), Mitrajaya Holdings Berhad (MHB MK) and D&L Industries Inc (DNL PM). Click here for report »