Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Malaysia: MGS curve bear-steepened with more pressure seen in the ultra-long sector as yields rose 12-17bps MoM along the 15y30y. We m

MY & SG Bond Market Watch

·         Malaysia: MGS curve bear-steepened with more pressure seen in the ultra-long sector as yields rose 12-17bps MoM along the 15y30y. We maintain our tactically mildly bearish outlook on MGS, with a view that BNM to keep OPR unchanged in November which limit MGS curve from going lower, and market remains vigilant against external uncertainties amid recent steeping of core sovereign curves in developed markets. Our target yield for the 10y MGS is unchanged at 3.65-3.70% by end-2016.

·         Singapore: SGS curve bear-steepened due to underperformance in the 10y30y part rising 15-20bps MoM. MAS released the 2017 SGS issuance calendar. We estimate a lighter gross supply of SGD14.1b in 2017, down from SGD18.8b in 2016 on lower refinancing need. In October policy meeting, MAS maintained the SGD NEER slope at zero percent and the width of the policy band was unchanged. Looking ahead, we expect some stability in the domestic short-term rates 3M SIBOR and 3M SOR, but with a slight upward bias trajectory as the future-implied probability of US FFR hike in December is currently at 71.4%, meaning further re-pricing may be needed, but not excessive.

ICD Outlook Downgraded to Negative; South Africa’s MTBPS Disappoints

31 October 2016


Global Sukuk Markets Weekly

ICD Outlook Downgraded to Negative; South Africa’s MTBPS Disappoints

Highlights & Performance

¨   Bloomberg Malaysia Sukuk Ex-MYR Total Return (BMSXMTR) and Dow Jones Sukuk Total Return (DJSUKTXR) closed with modest losses at 105.5 (-0.05%) and 163.6 (-0.16%) respectively. The index yield rose 2.4bps to 2.458% as 10y US Treasury note hit a five-month high at 1.847% (+11.2bps), and as oil prices softened following Iraqi oil minister’s comments on exemption from OPEC output curbs.
¨   Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB, A2/NR/A+) weighed heavily (+18 to +81bps) after it reported a relatively flat 3Q16 net profit of AED509m (3Q15: AED503m). First Gulf Bank (FGB, A2/A/A+) reported a 32% YoY increase in net profit to AED1.9bn due mainly to a AED437m one-off gain on sale of investment properties, with 2.3% YoY increase in interest income. FGB 1/17 was seen last traded at 0.59% (-20bps).  On the other hand, Dar Al-Arkan (B1/NR/NR), one of Saudi Arabia’s largest property developers, reported a 3Q16 net profit of SAR112m (+21.3%) driven by 14% revenue growth and 33% lower general, administrative, selling and marketing expenses; with DARALA 5/18 widening 14bps to 6.97%.
¨   Indonesia’s parliament approved Government’s 2017 Budget, with fiscal deficit target of 2.41% of GDP and GDP growth target of 5.1%. Indonesia’s CDS widened by 2.6bps to 154.0bps. Elsewhere, Moody’s flagged concerns over Malaysia’s medium-term goal of a balance budget by 2020 in an absence of major fiscal reforms, combined with falling revenues and weakening debt affordability; whereas Fitch opined that the budget is achievable and is better placed than other net commodity exporters to cope with the negative shift in terms of trade, with its risk premium trading at 123.7bps (+1.2bps). Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports fell at a slower pace of 11.1% in August (Jul-16: 27.2%) however, its net foreign asset continues to fall for a fourth consecutive month to SAR2.05bn. Saudi Arabia’s CDS tightened slightly by 1.5bps to 133.5bps. 
¨   Over in the primary market, KT Kira Sertifikalari Varlik Kiralama A.S (NR/NR/BBBe) priced USD500m 5y sukuk at 5.136% (MS+385bps). Meanwhile, Islamic Development Bank (Aaa/AAA/AAA) is expected to issue a 5y note of more than USD1.0bn after the US presidential elections (8-Nov).
¨   Turning to MYR primaries, Celcom Networks (MARC: AA+) issued MYR500m 5-10y sukuk at 4.85-5.27%, with proceeds likely be used to finance MYR817m spectrum fees due Nov-16; whereas Maxis Broadband Sdn Bhd (NR) sold MYR500m 4y sukuk at 4.700%. Elsewhere, Perbadanan Kemajuan Negeri Selangor (RAM: AA3) sold MYR200m 1-2y sukuk at 4.25-4.45%. Gas Malaysia (MARC: AAA) priced MYR100m 3y sukuk at 4.150% which will be earmarked for its pipeline expansion plan.

SOVEREIGN/Corporate UPDATE
Country/Issuer
Update
RHBFIC View
Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD)
(Aa3/Sta; AA*-; BBB-/Neg)

Note:
*- : Under CreditWatch Negative since 1 Sept 2016. Should resolve placement by end-Nov 2016
Fitch revises ICD’s outlook to Negative from Stable, but reaffirms AA rating. The outlook revision was mainly due to: 
·         Saudi Arabia saw multi notch downgrades and has been under Negative outlook since August 2015 – impacting on its shareholder support, given that the kingdom owns 18.2% of ICD’s capital. Saudi is also the largest shareholder of Islamic Development Bank (IDB), of which IDB holds a 45.5% share of ICD. 
·         Failure to reduce the impaired loan ratio. The ratio is one of the highest among multilateral development banks (MDBs) at 22.5% as at end-1436H from 20.3% in 1435H. It is expected for the trend to be maintained in the medium term. Reserve coverage has been relatively weak.
·         There is material deterioration of the value of the bank’s equity portfolio. ICD holds a large portfolio of equity participants representing 63.1% of its banking portfolio at end 1436H, which constitutes as a substantial source of risk according to Fitch.
Neutral. We view this development as neutral as we believe that the impact of the outlook downgrade will be muted. This is mainly due to ICD’s main focus to support the economic development of its member countries, such as through the provision of finance for private sector projects.


South Africa
(Baa2/Neg; BBB-/Neg; BBB-/Sta)

The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) announcement on 26 Oct 2016 revised the 2016/17 consolidated budget deficit to 3.4% of GDP, higher than the original target of 3.2%.
Fiscal tightening of ZAR23bn was noted for 2017/18 through a combination of new revenue and spending cuts.
Despite the fiscal tightening, the Treasury expects the debt-to-GDP to peak at 53% in FY2018/19 versus previous estimate of a 51% peak in 2017/18.
Neutral. We believe this development is neutral on South Africa. The MTBPS revisions were informed by lower tax revenue collections than expected (shortfall of ZAR22.8bn or 0.2% of GDP), sluggish growth, and the need to allocate greater funding to Higher Education. In our view, the details on the MTBPS did not provide clear supportive structural reforms to help support growth, in line with views from S&P and Fitch. Moody’s opined that the MTBPS was challenged by slow progress and uncertainty around structural reforms to support growth.

Money Supply Eases in September, But Deceleration in Loans and Deposits Growth Halted

Economic Research
1 November 2016
Malaysia

Economic Highlights




Growth of the broader money supply, M3, slowed to 2.2% y-o-y in September, from +2.4% in August, due to a decline in external operations and a slowdown in demand for funds by the private and public sector. Including the Islamic Investment Accounts, M3, eased to 4.0% y-o-y during the month, from +4.3% in August. This is still in line with our M3 estimate of 4.0%-5.0% as at end-2016 and around 4.0% in 2017.

Meanwhile, loan growth was stable at 4.2% y-o-y in September, unchanged from the previous month but lower compared with +5.6 in July, as the deceleration in growth of household loans were mitigated by the marginal increase in business loans. As a result, we project loan growth to slow down to around to 3.7% in 2017, from an estimated 4.3% in 2016 and compared with 7.9% in 2015.


Economist:  Vincent Loo Yeong Hong  | +603 9280 2172
Economist: Aris Nazman Maslan | +603 9280 2184


To access our recent reports please click on the links below:


Consumer prices in Japan fell for the sixth consecutive month in September, dipping 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), the same pace of decline recorded in Augu


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News Highlights - Week of 24 - 28 October 2016

Consumer prices in Japan fell for the sixth consecutive month in September, dipping 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), the same pace of decline recorded in August. For the 23rd consecutive month, consumer prices in Singapore contracted in September, albeit at a slower pace of 0.2% y-o-y compared with 0.3% y-o-y in August. The moderation was mainly due to the slower decline in transportation costs, which fell 0.5% y-o-y in September after declining 0.7% y-o-y in August.

*     Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the Republic of Korea stood at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 2.7% y-o-y in the third quarter (Q3) of 2016, according to advance estimates of the Bank of Korea. GDP growth was down from second quarter (Q2) 2016 figures of 0.8% q-o-q and 3.3% y-o-y. The slower q-o-q growth in real GDP originated from weaker growth in private consumption, domestic investment, and exports of goods, as well as a quarterly contraction in manufacturing production. Singapore’s manufacturing output increased 6.7% y-o-y in September after gaining only 0.5% y-o-y in August.

*     Hong Kong, China’s exports increased 3.6% y-o-y in September after rising 0.8% y-o-y in August. Imports rose 4.1% y-o-y in September, up from 2.8% y-o-y growth in August. Japan’s exports fell 6.9% y-o-y to JPY5.97 trillion in September, while imports declined 16.3% y-o-y to JPY5.47 trillion. A trade surplus of JPY497.6 billion was recorded in September.

*     On 21 October, the Prime Minister of Malaysia announced the release of the 2017 federal budget with a total allocation of MYR260.8 billion, a 3.4% increase from the 2016 revised budget. The government also announced a 2017 fiscal deficit target of MYR40.3 billion, or 3.0% of GDP, down from this year’s target of 3.1%. The economy is expected to grow 4.0%–5.0% y-o-y in 2017, with annual inflation of 2.0%–3.0%.

*     The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas announced that its Monetary Board approved the inclusion of the Chinese renminbi in its official international reserves effective 13 October.

*     The Government of Indonesia raised IDR19.691 trillion from the sale of retail bond series ORI013. The bonds have a maturity of 3 years and a coupon rate of 6.60%.

*     Hong Kong, China’s MTR Corporation issued its first green bond last week. The issue size was USD600 million. The bond has a maturity of 10 years, a coupon rate of 2.5%, and was priced to yield 2.537%. Petron Corporation, an oil-refining and marketing firm in the Philippines, raised PHP20 billion from a dual-tranche, fixed-rate retail bond sale last week. The transaction comprised a PHP13 billion 5-year bond with an interest rate of 4.0032% and a PHP7 billion 7-year bond with an interest rate of 4.5219%.

*     LCY government bond yields last week rose for all tenors in the Republic of Korea; and for most tenors in the PRC; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; the Philippines; Singapore; and Thailand. Yields fell for all tenors in Malaysia. Meanwhile, yield movements were mixed in Viet Nam. Yield spreads between the 2-year and 10-year maturities narrowed for all markets except in the PRC, Indonesia, and Thailand.

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