My One Academy

Monday, November 2, 2015

Economic Research	02 November 2015
Philippines
Economic Highlights
Money Supply And Bank Lending Slowed Down In September The broad money supply (M3) growth in the Philippines slowed down to 8.5% y-o-y in September, from +9.0% in August and compared with a revised +8.4% in July, underpinned by a deceleration in net foreign assets and domestic claims. Economist: Rizki Fajar \| +6221 2970 7207

*To access our recent reports please click on the links below:* 12 October 2015: Exports Deteriorated For The Fifth Month In August 07 October 2015: Inflation Slowed Further In September 01 October 2015: Money Supply And Bank Lending Picked Up In August 28 September 2015: Domestic Demand Still Resilient To Steer The Economy Ahead 25 September 2015: Policy Rates Kept On Hold In September 21 September 2015: Current Account Surplus Dwindled in 2Q 2015

Economic Research	02 November 2015
China
Economic Highlights
Muted Industrial Growth, Showing Sluggish Economic Recovery China’s manufacturing PMI stayed unchanged in Oct 2015, but surprised the market on the downside. The index has already stayed in contractionary zone for three consecutive months, indicating industrial growth was still muted and would remain as the major drag for the economic recovery. Policy wise, we still expect monetary easing will continue in the medium term. Although the central bank is likely to keep benchmark interest rate unchanged in the near term to allow more time to evaluate the impact on its real economy, the authority will not hesitate to further lower RRR by another 25bps in 4Q15 and 200-250bps in 2016 to sterilise the loss in capital outflows. Meanwhile, we expect to see more supports to come from policy banks as well as from the central government to directly lower funding cost for corporates and cushion the economic slowdown. Economist: Zhang Fan\| +8621 6288 9611 ext 105

*To access our recent reports please click on the links below:* 26 Oct: Not The End Of Monetary Easing 19 Oct: Heading South 15 Oct: Mild Inflation Provides Room For Easing 12 Oct: Remain Cautious For China’s Trade Condition 01 Oct: Slightly Improved, But Far From Enough 23 Sept: Downside Pressure Remains For Manufacturing Sectors 14 Sept: Economic Growth Remained Muted

Economic Research	02 November 2015
Malaysia
Economic Highlights
September’s Broad Monetary Aggregate Gained Momentum While Loan Growth Eased Growth of the broader money supply, M3, strengthened to 5.3% y-o-y in September, from +4.6% in August and compared with +3.8% in July. This was on account of a rebound in the demand for funds by the public sector and net foreign assets but partly offset by a decline in private demand for loans. Moving forward, we expect M3 growth to sustain at 4.0%-5.0% in 2016, matching the estimated pace this year, on the back of a sustained growth in economic activities. Economist: Peck Boon Soon \| +603 9280 2163 Economist: Vincent Loo Yeong Hong \| +603 9280 2172

*To access our recent reports please click on the links below:* 23 Oct: Ministry Of Finance Economic Report 2015/16 – Cautious Outlook Amid A Challenging Environment 23 Oct: Inflation Moderated In September On Fuel Price Drop 23 Oct: Business Conditions And Consumer Sentiment Turned Weaker In 3Q 16 Oct: 2016 Budget Preview – Likely To Be A Prudent And People-Centric Budget 12 Oct : Industrial Production Eased In August On Drop In Mining Output 08 Oct: TPP A Net Positive For Malaysia, But Impact Will Only Be Felt Gradually 08 Oct: Foreign Exchange Reserves Fell By Slower Pace In September

Today’s Highlights

► Sector Update – Banking (NEUTRAL, maintain) - A potential moderation in 4Q15, views unchanged

► Company Update – CIMB Group (BUY, maintain) - CIMB Niaga: Elevated provisions in 3Q15

► Company Update – JAKS Resources (BUY, maintain) - Almost there

► Results Note – Petronas Gas (HOLD, maintain) - A decent quarter

Quick bites

► FGV: Signing of definitive dcouments extended to no later than 30 Nov

Outside Malaysia

► US stocks slip, trimming the strongest monthly gain since 2011

► US consumer spending rose less than forecast in September

► US avoids debt default as congress passes fiscal plan

► Draghi says further stimulus in December remains 'open question'

► Euro area spell of sub-zero inflation ends as unemployment falls

► Taiwan economy shrinks for first time since 2009 on exports

► China’s official factory gauge signals contraction continues

► Crude advances a third day as US drillers idle more oil rigs