Wednesday, February 4, 2015

AsianBondsOnline Newsletter (2 February 2015)



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News Highlights - Week of 26 - 30 January 2015

The Philippines' real gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated to 6.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 4Q14, following growth of 5.3% y-o-y in 3Q14 and 6.3% y-o-y in 4Q13. Growth in 4Q14 was mainly driven by the industrial sector, particularly manufacturing and construction, which expanded 9.2% y-o-y, following 7.6% y-o-y growth in 3Q14. The agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector posted 4.8% y-o-y growth, a reversal from the         –2.2% y-o-y decline in 3Q14. Meanwhile, growth in the services sector rose to 6.0% y-o-y in 4Q14 from 5.3% y-o-y in the previous quarter. For full-year 2014, real GDP grew 6.1%, down from 7.5% growth in 2013.  

*     In a meeting held on 28 January, the Monetary Policy Committee of Bank Negara Malaysia decided to keep its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.25%. Also last week, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) decided to reduce the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, while keeping the width and the level at which it is centered unchanged. Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee decided on 28 January to keep the policy interest rate steady at 2.00%. 

*     Hong Kong, China’s export growth rose to 0.6% y-o-y in in December from 0.4% y-o-y in November. Import growth slowed to 1.9% y-o-y in December from 2.4% in November. The weak export growth was due to declines in exports to Asia. The Republic of Korea's merchandise exports fell 0.4% y-o-y in January whereas merchandise imports dropped at a faster pace, by 11.0% y-o-y, leading the merchandise trade surplus to widen to US$5.5 billion for the month. The current account surplus stood at US$7.2 billion in December.  The Philippines posted a merchandise trade surplus of US$272 million in November, versus a US$1.3 billion deficit in the same month last year. Total merchandise exports increased 21.7% y-o-y in November and total merchandise imports declined 10.8% y-o-y. Thailand recorded a current account surplus in December amounting to US$5.5 billion, up from November's US$1.7 billion.

*     Consumer price inflation in Japan remained unchanged at 2.4% y-o-y in January. The commodity groups that posted higher annual increases include food (3.1% vs 2.9%) and furniture and household utensils (3.4% vs 3.3%). 

*     The People’s Republic of China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in January from 50.1 in December, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. Industrial production in Japan increased 1.0% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 0.3% y-o-y in January. In Singapore, manufacturing output contracted for the second consecutive month in December, dipping –1.9% y-o-y after declining –2.1% y-o-y in November.  Manufacturing production in Thailand slipped 0.3% y-o-y in December.

*     Security Bank Corp., a universal and commercial bank in the Philippines, raised US$300 million from the issuance of 5-year senior unsecured notes. The notes carry a coupon of 3.95% and were assigned a BB+ bond rating by Standard & Poor’s.

*     Yields fell for all tenors in Indonesia, Malaysia and Viet Nam and for most tenors in the Philippines and Singapore, largely on the back of weaker growth expectations.  Yields rose in the PRC, Hong Kong, China and Thailand. The spread between 2- and 10-year yields narrowed in all markets in the region except for Japan, the PRC, Hong Kong, China and Indonesia.

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Regional Daily, Maybank KE (2015-01-30)



Daily
30 January 2015
TOP VIEWS
  • Samsung Electronics - Prefs. shares (005935 KS) | Rating Change
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) | TP Revision
  • Philippines Economics
  • Minor International (MINT TB) | Acquisition
  • Malaysia Gaming - NFO | NEUTRAL
Samsung Electronics - Prefs. shares (005935 KS)
Too attractive to pass on
Share Price: KRW1,066,000 | Target Price: KRW1,540,000 (+44%) | MCap (USD): 22.4B | ADTV (USD): 31M
  • Upgrade SEC�s pref shares to BUY from HOLD with revised TP of KRW1.54m (from KRW1.15m) to reflect the resurgence of capital management, potential stock split and 8% rise in OP.
  • Capital management offers more total returns on pref shares while stock split improves liquidity and share price appreciates over time, evident by many empirical studies.
  • These two corporate actions could result in stock re-rating, narrowing the valuation gap with common shares. For company analysis, refer to report on common shares.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
The worst could be over
Share Price: KRW1,378,000 | Target Price: KRW1,540,000 (+12%) | MCap (USD): 187.2B | ADTV (USD): 311M
  • Raise FY15 OP by 8% - the first in 18 months factoring in weaker KRW & improved outlook for LSI. Increase TP to KRW1.54m (from KRW1.40m) but maintain HOLD.
  • More healthy and balanced business mix could minimize earnings volatility.
  • Capital management and expected YoY rise in OP are positives offset by intense smartphone competition and weakness in EUR. Pref shares (BUY) offer better risk/reward.
Philippines Economics
National accounts
4Q14 recovery likely to continue
  • GDP increased 6.9% YoY in 4Q14, bringing 2014 growth to 6.1% compared with our 5.9% estimate.
  • Government spending crept up in 4Q14; expect more robust performance this year to be major growth driver.
  • Steep drop in fuel prices to boost domestic demand, in all expect GDP to rise 7% this year.
Minor International (MINT TB)
Acquires hotels in Brazil and Portugal
Share Price: THB35.00 | Target Price: THB40.00 (+14%) | MCap (USD): 4.3B | ADTV (USD): 10M
  • Maintain BUY on top sector pick and DCF-based TP of THB40 (9% WACC, 3% terminal growth), implying 27.8x PER, 4.8x P/BV and 1.0x PEG for FY15F. Co. trades at 4% disc. to peers.
  • Acquired six hotels and over 1,600 keys in Brazil and Portugal for THB6.6b to expand presence in South America and Europe, aligned with MINT�s diversification plan.
  • Deal to close in 1Q15. This acquisition could contribute 3% and 6% to group revenue and net profit in 2015.
Malaysia Gaming - NFO
Sector Update
Will wait for better odds
  • NFO sales will remain weak in 2015 due to the 6% GST. The GST itself will also cut NFO earnings by 10%.
  • For Magnum and BST, we cut our earnings estimates by 1-10% but DPS estimates by a wider 11-21%.
  • Maintain HOLD calls on Magnum and BST but trim their TPs by 11% and 9% to MYR2.63 and MYR3.18 respectively.
COMPANY NOTES
  • Bank of China (Hong Kong) (2388 HK) | Company Update
  • Sands China (1928 HK) | Results Review
  • Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) | Rating Change
  • Titan Co. (TTAN IN) | Company Update
  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) | Rating Change
  • AMMB Holdings (AMM MK) | Company Update
  • Bursa Malaysia (BURSA MK) | Results Review
  • Genting Singapore (GENS SP) | Company Update
  • SMRT (MRT SP) | Results Review
  • Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB) | Company Update
Bank of China (Hong Kong) (2388 HK)
What if it sells NYCB?
Share Price: HKD26.70 | Target Price: HKD28.75 (+8%) | MCap (USD): 36.4B | ADTV (USD): 41M
  • Disposal of NYCB will lower BOCHK�s NPL ratio and raise its CET1 CAR and BVPS.
  • Potential EPS and ROE dilution of 8.9% and 2.4ppts.
  • Potential distribution of special DPS of HKD3.35. Stay BUY.
Sands China (1928 HK)
Tepid end to 2014
Share Price: HKD39.65 | Target Price: HKD39.65 (+0%) | MCap (USD): 41.3B | ADTV (USD): 92M
  • 4Q14 and 2014 results were within expectations.
  • Focus will be on grind mass going forward.
  • Maintain HOLD call and HKD39.65 TP.
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)
3Q missed; Demand less exuberant
Share Price: INR3,725 | Target Price: INR3,420 (-8%) | MCap (USD): 18.3B | ADTV (USD): 20M
  • Downgrade to HOLD from BUY. Maintain TP of INR3,420, at 22x FY16F PER. Prefer Bajaj Auto and Tata Motors in sector.
  • 3Q EPS 9% below consensus, 13% below ours due to higher-than-expected expenses. Lower FY15F EPS by 2%.
  • MSIL confirmed demand not so buoyant in 4Q due to excise-tax hike and incentives to lure car buyers.
Titan Co. (TTAN IN)
Low tax bucks 3Q; Upbeat now
Share Price: INR440 | Target Price: INR484 (+10%) | MCap (USD): 6.3B | ADTV (USD): 8M
  • Maintain BUY and raise TP to INR484 in view of a favourable demand trend in jewellery against consensus expectations of gold losing its investment value.
  • 3QFY15 EPS of INR2.1, +15%, belied our expectations due to muted festive demand. 9MFY15 EPS of INR6.8 is 69% of FY15F EPS.
  • We reduce our EPS forecast for FY15 by 7% to INR9.2. However we increase our EPS forecast for FY16 by 3% to INR12.3 and FY17 by 6% to INR16.1. Catalysts are reinstatement of Golden harvest investment scheme for six and 10 months, acceleration in Gold plus sales which will be additional growth drivers for FY16/17.
Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)
Awaiting new board, D/G to HOLD
Share Price: IDR6,150 | Target Price: IDR5,800 (-6%) | MCap (USD): 9.1B | ADTV (USD): 10M
  • FY14 net profit of IDR10.8t was in line with our estimate. Solid base for new BOD to continue expansion.
  • 2015F targets are in line with peers, with 15% loan and deposit growth.
  • Downgrade to HOLD as we await new BOD in mid March. Maintain TP at IDR5,800 (FY15F: 8.8x PER & 1.6x PBV).
AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)
Group MD to leave
Share Price: MYR6.30 | Target Price: MYR6.90 (+10%) | MCap (USD): 5.2B | ADTV (USD): 7M
  • Having been at AMMB for almost 8 years, Ashok�s departure as Group MD will be a loss to the group.
  • AMMB�S Deputy Group MD is a potential candidate to fill in the void.
  • HOLD maintained on the stock, TP unchanged at MYR6.90 on a CY15 P/BV peg of 1.5x.
Bursa Malaysia (BURSA MK)
Slight overshot
Share Price: MYR8.21 | Target Price: MYR8.40 (+2%) | MCap (USD): 1.2B | ADTV (USD): 1M
  • MYR198m FY14 net profit slightly ahead of expectations, another year in strong earnings delivery.
  • Our FY15/16 earnings forecasts are marginally raised; we introduce FY17 forecast.
  • High yields to cushion downside. Maintain HOLD with a higher MYR8.40 TP (+20sen) after rolling forward valuations.
Genting Singapore (GENS SP)
Mixed vibes from MBS results
Share Price: SGD1.06 | Target Price: SGD1.13 (+7%) | MCap (USD): 9.5B | ADTV (USD): 18M
  • RWS may have ceded VIP volume share to MBS in 4Q14. Mass market should have stabilised further.
  • Assuming normalised VIP win rates, we still expect decent 4Q14E EBITDA of SGD325m.
  • Maintain HOLD for lack of catalysts & SGD1.13 TP at 9x FY15E EV/EBITDA. Share buybacks to provide support.
SMRT (MRT SP)
Lower operating costs
Share Price: SGD1.73 | Target Price: SGD1.60 (-8%) | MCap (USD): 1.9B | ADTV (USD): 2M
  • 3Q net income of SGD22.5m (+58% YoY) beat on lower operating costs, especially labour & energy. Raise EPS by 7-34% for this & new fares.
  • Still no update on rail transition. Treatment of asset-purchase obligations remains hurdle.
  • Maintain HOLD. TP at 20x FY16E PER raised to SGD1.60 from SGD1.36.
Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB)
Building crucial platform
Share Price: THB23.00 | Target Price: THB27.00 (+17%) | MCap (USD): 9.8B | ADTV (USD): 28M
  • We forecast 8% loan growth (KTB targets 6-7%) this year, driven by small SME and housing loans.
  • Expect FY15F earnings to grow 9% vs 12% for consensus as we believe KTB will maintain high credit cost of 75bps to increase coverage ratio on par with sector average.
  • Maintain BUY and TP of THB27, implying 10x 2015 PER, 1.5x P/BV, 16% ROE with 4.3% and 4.7% dividend yield in 2014-15.
ECONOMICS
Thailand Economics
Is Mar rate cut possible?
Rates: Continue to U/W local bonds
  • In a slightly hawkish tone, the BoT saw a gradual recovery in the economy in 4Q14; inflation might pick up in 2H15.
  • We maintain the view that BoT will continue to keep policy rate at 2.00% at MPC meeting on 11 Mar and expect a 25bps increase, but not until 2H15. We will only change our view if 4Q14 and 2014 GDP (due 16 Feb) disappoint.
  • Rates: We continue to underweight local bonds in view of a slightly hawkish BoT and better value in other regional government bond markets especially IndoGBs.
   

Affin Hwang Capital Daily Insight (LV) - 30 January 2015 - AEON / ECONOMY - ASEAN OUTLOOK


Top Calls

Company Update � Aeon (BUY, maintain)

- A well-respected retailer

Our recent meeting with management has reaffirmed our belief that Aeon is on track to sustain earnings growth that is supported by its steady mall expansions and healthy consumer spending for basic necessities. We think that companies like Aeon that target the mass market should fare better in the uncertain 2015 consumer spending environment. Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of RM3.57.


Other Calls

Economy � ASEAN Outlook � Weekly Wrap (23 � 29 January 2015)

-S�pore may ease policy further in April on low inflation


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