Monday, October 2, 2017

FW: RHB | Thailand | MPI Gained Momentum In August, Led By Automotive

 

 

 

 

Economic Research

2 October 2017

Thailand

 

Economic Update

 

 

 

MPI Gained Momentum In August, Led By Automotive

 

Thailand’s Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) accelerated to 3.7% YoY in August, driven by higher output in the automotive and refined petroleum product clusters. Meanwhile production of food & beverage (F&B) slowed sharply, capping some of the gains.

Going forward, we expect manufacturing activities to ease in 4Q, hampered by a high base effect, the delay in the iPhone X release date, and the recent run-up in inventory. However, the slowdown may not be as severe as first envisaged as F&B production is set to improve on higher farm yields, and the automotive cluster may benefit from replacement demand in the US as well as front-buying of small engine vehicles in China, ahead of a scheduled tax hike at the start of next year.

Hence, we raise our forecast for MPI to 0.8% this year, from -0.5% previously and +1.6% in 2016. Next year, the MPI is projected to grow 3%, underpinned by rising demand for capital goods.

 

Economist:  Ng Kee Chou  | +603 9280 2179

 

 

To access our recent reports please click on the links below:

 

02 October : Money Supply Continues To Climb On Foreign Demand

28 September:  BoT Raises GDP Forecasts, Maintains Key Repo Rate

25 September: August Exports Jump On North Asian Demand

5 September: Money Supply Sees Uptick In July

5 September: August CPI Picked Up On Higher Energy Cost

 

Economic Team

 

 

 

 

Peck Boon Soon

Chief ASEAN Economics

bspeck@rhbgroup.com

+603 9280 2163

Vincent Loo

Malaysia, Vietnam

vincent.loo@rhbgroup.com

+603 9280 2172

Ng Kee Chou

Singapore, Thailand

ng.kee.chou@rhbgroup.com

+603 9280 2179

Rizki Fajar

Indonesia, Philippines

rizki.fajar@rhbgroup.com

+6221 2970 7065

Aris Nazman Maslan

Malaysia, Vietnam

mohd.aris.nazman@rhbgroup.com

+603 9280 2184

 

 

 

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