FW: CIMB Fixed Income Weekly - 09 Oct 2017

 

 

US Treasuries

• UST weakened last Friday despite NFP declining by 33k in Sep 2017, as players focused on the unemployment rate falling to 4.2%, or its lowest since Feb 2001.
• The market likely remaining weak this week. The 10T closed at 3.36% last week, and movement above 2.42% should bring levels towards 2.47% pretty quickly. However, levels around 2.47%-2.50% looks toppish in our view unless Fed-speak turn ultra-hawkish.

Malaysia

• There is likely little in terms of domestic catalysts to drive the Malaysian bond market in the coming week, as we think UST movement will continue to drive sentiment.
• We foresee longer end yields rising further - 10y MGS levels should hover 3.90-4.00% in next 1-2 weeks.

Thailand

• We expect only marginal upside risk in long-term yields as long-term funds and insurers could grab buy-opportunity seeing the more attractive yields. We pencil in 10y target at 2.34% this week.

Indonesia

• Foreign investor holdings of government bonds fell sharply between 28 September and 5 October by IDR16.5 trillion.
• Selling pressure could heighten with UST likely to show weakness. We expect 10y IDR yields to increase towards 6.60% this week.

 

*************************************************************************************************************************