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Share
Price:
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MYR2.76
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Target
Price:
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MYR3.20
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Recommendation:
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Buy
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Going strong
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FY16 results were a beat due to an unexpected spike in
4Q16 tolling fee and pipeline contribution. Our current thesis revolves
around GMB’s spreads possibly surprising on the upside going forward.
Reiterate BUY, with a higher MYR3.20 TP as we raise our earnings
forecasts to reflect a higher spread.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY15A
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FY16A
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FY17E
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FY18E
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Revenue
|
3,619.0
|
4,053.0
|
4,720.0
|
5,549.9
|
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EBITDA
|
191.0
|
264.6
|
266.5
|
274.9
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Core net profit
|
106.2
|
165.1
|
170.7
|
178.5
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Core EPS (sen)
|
8.3
|
12.9
|
13.3
|
13.9
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Core EPS growth (%)
|
(36.7)
|
55.6
|
3.4
|
4.6
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Net DPS (sen)
|
8.3
|
12.9
|
13.3
|
13.9
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Core P/E (x)
|
33.4
|
21.5
|
20.8
|
19.8
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P/BV (x)
|
3.7
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
3.5
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.0
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
5.0
|
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ROAE (%)
|
10.7
|
16.6
|
16.7
|
17.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.5
|
7.7
|
7.7
|
7.7
|
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.9
|
10.2
|
11.8
|
11.3
|
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
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Share
Price:
|
MYR1.51
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Target
Price:
|
MYR1.95
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Recommendation:
|
Buy
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Positive
surprise, still attractively valued
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3QFY3/17 earnings continued to be strong, aided by still
robust net loans growth of about 14% YoY and NIM expansion, mitigated
in part by higher credit costs. We raise our FY17-FY19 earnings by
15-21% and now project higher ROEs of 15-16% over this period.
Correspondingly, we have raised our TP to MYR1.95 from MYR1.60, pegging
on a higher P/BV of 1.5x (1.3x previously). Valuations remain
attractive and RCE continues to be a BUY.
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FYE Mar (MYR m)
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FY15A
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FY16A
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FY17E
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FY18E
|
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Operating income
|
107.5
|
120.9
|
155.4
|
173.8
|
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Pre-provision profit
|
64.8
|
79.6
|
116.0
|
127.8
|
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Core net profit
|
36.2
|
39.6
|
65.0
|
71.6
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
0.09
|
0.12
|
0.19
|
0.21
|
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Core EPS growth (%)
|
748.3
|
35.9
|
54.7
|
10.1
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.06
|
0.46
|
0.04
|
0.04
|
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Core P/E (x)
|
16.6
|
12.2
|
7.9
|
7.2
|
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P/BV (x)
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.0
|
30.1
|
2.6
|
3.0
|
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Book value (MYR)
|
1.70
|
1.34
|
1.22
|
1.39
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ROAE (%)
|
6.0
|
7.7
|
14.9
|
16.1
|
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ROAA (%)
|
2.8
|
2.8
|
3.8
|
3.6
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Share
Price:
|
MYR1.73
|
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Target
Price:
|
MYR1.78
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Recommendation:
|
Buy
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Dividend galore
still possible in 2017
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2016’s core results were within expectations but 14.5sen
full-year DPS beats estimates. For 2017, BPLANT has the financial
ability to surprise on the upside from our 7.5% net dividend yield
(13sen/sh) forecast, on the back of enormous MYR620m/527m (39/33 sen/sh)
cash proceeds/gains from land disposal. We tweak our 2017/2018 core
earnings forecasts, and introduce 2019 forecast, and tweak RNAV-TP to
MYR1.78 (from MYR1.75) post results adjustments. Maintain BUY.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
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Revenue
|
615.2
|
707.9
|
726.0
|
756.3
|
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EBITDA
|
112.9
|
188.4
|
181.5
|
198.6
|
|
Core net profit
|
31.6
|
81.5
|
79.7
|
101.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.0
|
5.1
|
5.0
|
6.3
|
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Core EPS growth (%)
|
(49.6)
|
157.7
|
(2.1)
|
26.8
|
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Net DPS (sen)
|
13.0
|
14.5
|
13.0
|
6.2
|
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Core P/E (x)
|
87.5
|
34.0
|
34.7
|
27.4
|
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P/BV (x)
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
7.5
|
8.4
|
7.5
|
3.6
|
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ROAE (%)
|
3.5
|
10.4
|
25.5
|
3.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.0
|
2.5
|
2.3
|
2.7
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
26.4
|
17.0
|
15.7
|
14.3
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
21.9
|
21.5
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
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Share
Price:
|
MYR15.92
|
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Target
Price:
|
MYR18.30
|
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Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
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6QFY16: Decent
end to the financial year
|
|
6QFY16 results were above expectations on
better-than-expected sales, cost efficiencies (eg. global procurement
initiatives) and lower tax rates. While the operating environment may
remain soft on still weak consumer sentiment, we believe that HEIM’s
ongoing focus on cost efficiencies and potential market share gain (eg.
launch of brand extensions, increased focus on off-trade growth) could
help support growth in the near term.
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FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,748.9
|
2,810.3
|
1,918.0
|
1,993.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
329.0
|
620.4
|
437.8
|
455.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
214.2
|
427.3
|
289.5
|
303.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
70.9
|
141.4
|
95.8
|
100.4
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
8.1
|
99.5
|
(32.2)
|
4.7
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
71.0
|
145.0
|
95.0
|
100.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
22.5
|
11.3
|
16.6
|
15.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
12.8
|
12.3
|
11.7
|
11.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
4.5
|
9.1
|
6.0
|
6.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
58.4
|
111.2
|
72.1
|
72.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
30.7
|
57.1
|
36.4
|
37.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
13.2
|
8.1
|
10.9
|
10.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
6.0
|
17.8
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.04
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.15
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4Q16: Earnings
on track
|
|
4Q16 results were within our estimates but above
consensus’ whereby YoY growth was mainly driven by KOMTAR JBCC’s
improved occupancy rate and addition of percentage rent structure since
mid-2016. Its second gross DPU of 3.4sen (FY16: 6.0sen) was also in-line.
We nudge up FY17-18 earnings by c.2% p.a. but maintain our DDM-TP of
MYR1.15 (cost of equity: 8.2%). Maintain BUY as ALSREIT still provides
potential total return of 16% which includes FY17 net yield of 5.6%.
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|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
20.7
|
76.1
|
83.4
|
85.0
|
|
Net property income
|
15.7
|
56.9
|
61.2
|
62.4
|
|
Distributable income
|
7.1
|
36.0
|
39.7
|
40.8
|
|
DPU (sen)
|
1.1
|
5.4
|
5.9
|
6.0
|
|
DPU growth (%)
|
na
|
400.0
|
8.5
|
2.7
|
|
Price/DPU(x)
|
96.3
|
19.3
|
17.8
|
17.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
|
DPU yield (%)
|
1.0
|
5.2
|
5.6
|
5.8
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
7.8
|
6.5
|
6.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
na
|
3.7
|
4.1
|
4.1
|
|
Debt/Assets (x)
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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MACRO RESEARCH
|
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Low single-digit growth
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
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|
Overseas Filipino workers’ remittances (OFWR) in Dec
2016 and the whole of 2016 rose +3.6% YoY to USD2.56b (Nov 2016:
+18.5% YoY to USD2.21b) and +5.0% to USD26.9b (2015: +4.0% to
USD25.6b) respectively. US-driven pick up in global economic growth
and firmer crude oil price should sustain OFWR growth at around 5%-6%
this year.
|
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Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
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Golden sunrise
by Tee
Sze Chiah
|
|
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|
|
FBMKLCI closed mixed yesterday, ended just 0.89pts
higher to settle at 1,709.79. Broader market also showcased a similar
sentiment with 418 stocks ended in green, 469 stocks closed in the
red while 371 counters remained unchanged. Trading volume of 2.30b worth
MYR2.51b was recorded. Meanwhile Trump’s tax plan continued to lend
support to the overnight US markets with major indices closed at
record high. Expect FBMKLCI to flash a similar pattern after recent
consolidation.
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Factory production in January rises for fourth time
in five months amid gains in machinery and chemicals, extending a gradual
recovery in manufacturing. Production at factories, which make up about
80 percent of all output, increased 0.2% MoM in January. Total industrial
output, which includes mining and utilities, fell 0.3% MoM as warm
weather reduced demand for heating, with utility production falling the
most in 11 years. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: China’s treasury holdings dropped in 2016 by most on
record, as the world’s second-largest economy dipped into its
foreign-exchange reserves to buttress the yuan. Japan, America’s largest
foreign creditor, trimmed its holdings for a second straight year. A
monthly Treasury Department report released showed China held USD 1.06tr
in U.S. government bonds, notes and bills in December, up USD 9.1b from
November but down USD 188b from a year earlier. It was the first monthly
increase since May. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S. Mortgage delinquencies rise for the first time since
2013. U.S. home-loan delinquencies increased in the fourth quarter,
rising from the lowest share in a decade, according to a data from the
Mortgage Bankers Association. The portion of loans that were at least one
month late climbed to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.8%, up from 4.52%
in the third quarter, which was the lowest since 2006, the group said in
a report. The rate was 4.77% a year earlier. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K: Unemployment declined and a measure of the number of
people in work rose to a record, pushing the labor market closer to “full
capacity,” according to the statistics office. The number of jobless fell
7,000 in the fourth quarter to 1.6 million people, leaving the
unemployment rate at 4.8%, the lowest in more than a decade. Employment
increased by 37,000 to 31.8 million, and the rate rose to a record 74.6%,
the Office for National Statistics said. Despite the increase in
employment, and labor shortages in some areas, that’s not being fully
reflected in wages. The latest data showed basic pay growth slowed in the
quarter to 2.6% from 2.7%, weaker than forecast. Increases in total pay
also slowed, in part reflecting the timing of bank bonuses. (Source:
Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Wah Seong: Buys Germany-based firm for EUR19.5m. Its
indirect wholly-owned subsidiary Wasco Coatings Germany GmbH (WC Germany)
entered into a share purchase agreement with mutares AG for the
acquisition of 100% equity interest in Germany-based firm mutares
Holding-16 AG (MH-16) for EUR19.5m (MYR91.7m) cash. The acquisition would
enable WC Germany to use the existing plant and machinery in Mukran,
Germany, to perform its pipe-coating activities for the purposes of the
Nord Stream 2 project. (Source: The Sun Daily)
DNex: Appointed as service provider for eWork Permit
System. Its indirect subsidiary MyCall Gateway S/B has been appointed as
the service provider for the eWork Permit System. The contract will see
DNeX providing consultancy, advice and services as the technology partner
and solution provider for the eWork Permit System for the rehiring
programme of illegal foreign workers undertaken by Bukti Megah. Bukti
Megah will pay a service fee of RM30, subject to 6% goods and services
tax, to DNeX for each transaction of the eWork Permit. (Source: The Edge
Financial Daily)
Berjaya Land: Selling stake in Vietnam resort operator.
Its wholly-owned subsidiary Berjaya Leisure (Cayman) Ltd is disposing of
its 70% stake in Berjaya Long Beach Limited Liability Company to Sulyna
Hospitality Hotel Restaurant Travel Service Co Ltd for VND333.25b (about
MYR65.32m) cash. BLand said the proposed disposal provides an opportunity
for the BLand Group to realise its investment in BLong Beach and the
gross cash proceeds will be used for working capital of the BLand Group.
The proposed disposal, which is expected to be completed by early 2018,
will result in a gain of about RM17.2 million based on the unaudited
carrying value as at Jan 31, 2017. (Source: The Sun Daily)
EG: To raise MYR63.9m for acquisitions. The group is
expecting to raise MYR63.9m through a one-for-four renounceable rights
issue of redeemable convertible preference shares (RCPS) mainly to
acquire new businesses. A big bulk of the proceeds amounting to MYR23.6m will
be earmarked for acquisition of new businesses and assets, mainly small
and medium-sized companies locally or in countries such as Singapore,
Thailand and China, and acquire assets with ready capacities to
supplement its operations.EG will be issuing some 67.3 million 1-for-4
renounceable rights issue of RCPS of RM0.95 per unit attached with a
bonus of one share for every RCPS subscribed. (Source: The Sun Daily)
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