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Share
Price:
|
MYR11.22
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Target
Price:
|
MYR14.05
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Recommendation:
|
Buy
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FY16 results
within expectations
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We maintain our earnings forecasts for Allianz with a
raised SOP-TP of MYR14.05 (from MYR12.80). Allianz offers exposure to
the largest general insurer in Malaysia and one of the fastest growing
life insurers. Maintain BUY with a 25% upside.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Net earned premiums
|
3,504.3
|
3,690.5
|
3,701.8
|
3,758.3
|
|
Core profit (MYR m)
|
308.9
|
312.1
|
320.1
|
334.4
|
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BVPS (MYR)
|
7.6
|
8.3
|
9.3
|
10.4
|
|
P/B (x)
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
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EVPS (MYR)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
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PEV (x)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
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VNB (MYR)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
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VNB multiple (x)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
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ROE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
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ROA (%)
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
1.8
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|
|
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Share
Price:
|
MYR4.10
|
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Target
Price:
|
MYR4.20
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Recommendation:
|
Buy
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Ending the year
on a high
|
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CMS’ FY16 core net profit of MYR212m after excluding the
MYR70m forex loss from OMS incurred in 1H16 and one-off land sale gain
of MYR25m in 4Q16 was above ours/consensus full-year estimates. CMS
also declared a total 2016 DPS of 6.3sen (+40% YoY), in tandem with its
policy of paying 40% of its net profit. Our earnings forecasts and
MYR4.20 SOP-TP are unchanged pending the analyst briefing later today.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
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Revenue
|
1,788.0
|
1,552.1
|
2,022.1
|
2,281.5
|
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EBITDA
|
394.8
|
418.9
|
405.4
|
443.9
|
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Core net profit
|
244.7
|
212.4
|
233.1
|
263.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
22.8
|
19.8
|
21.7
|
24.5
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
7.0
|
(13.2)
|
9.7
|
13.0
|
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Net DPS (sen)
|
4.5
|
6.3
|
8.7
|
6.6
|
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Core P/E (x)
|
18.0
|
20.7
|
18.9
|
16.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
2.1
|
1.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
na
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
8.1
|
6.3
|
6.4
|
6.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
14.3
|
10.5
|
11.0
|
10.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chew Hann Wong
|
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|
Adrian Wong
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Share
Price:
|
MYR4.93
|
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Target
Price:
|
MYR5.25
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Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
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Higher
provisions in 4Q16
|
|
What is positive is that RHB continues to gain market
share in the SME segment and CASA accumulation has been strong. What we
look to is a stabilization in asset quality, especially on the O&G
front. Against management’s FY17 ROE target of 9-10%, we estimate 9.6%
and continue to peg valuations to a CY17 P/BV of 0.9x – our MYR5.25 TP
is unchanged, as is our HOLD call on RHB.
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|
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|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Operating income
|
6,174.7
|
6,193.2
|
6,447.7
|
6,706.0
|
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Pre-provision profit
|
2,545.0
|
3,094.5
|
3,321.9
|
3,476.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,798.4
|
1,874.6
|
2,131.2
|
2,228.6
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
0.69
|
0.49
|
0.53
|
0.56
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(3.3)
|
(29.7)
|
9.3
|
4.6
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.12
|
0.12
|
0.16
|
0.17
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
7.1
|
10.1
|
9.3
|
8.9
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
3.2
|
3.4
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
5.11
|
5.42
|
5.62
|
6.05
|
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ROAE (%)
|
9.9
|
9.5
|
9.6
|
9.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Share
Price:
|
MYR4.63
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR5.00
|
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Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
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|
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Decent progress
in 3QFY17
|
|
While AMMB’s 9MFY3/17 results were in-line, there were
positive developments in 3QFY17, especially with improved loan traction
and margin expansion. We maintain our HOLD call but with a raised TP of
MYR5.00 (+60sen), pegged to a higher CY17 PBV of 0.9x (ROE: 8.7%)
(previously 0.8x CY17 PBV on 8.5% ROE), after our earnings upgrade for
FY17-19.
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|
|
|
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|
FYE Mar (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,721.5
|
3,693.3
|
3,736.9
|
3,972.2
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
2,563.6
|
1,519.0
|
1,613.4
|
1,806.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,638.0
|
1,355.9
|
1,375.7
|
1,436.9
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
0.54
|
0.45
|
0.46
|
0.48
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(2.9)
|
(17.2)
|
1.1
|
4.4
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.27
|
0.16
|
0.18
|
0.19
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
8.5
|
10.3
|
10.1
|
9.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
5.9
|
3.3
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
4.80
|
5.03
|
5.33
|
5.62
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
11.9
|
9.2
|
8.8
|
8.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.35
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.58
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FY16 results
disappointed
|
|
Results came in below our/street’s expectations due to
higher-than-expected expenses in 4Q16. We cut FY17-18 core earnings by
41%-51%, mainly to account for lower revenue (-29%-31%) expectations.
Our new TP is MYR0.58 (on unchanged 0.4x EV/backlog), as we: (i) lower
order backlog assumptions to MYR1.3b (-38%) and (ii) roll over net debt
base year to FY18. KNM’s transformation into a renewable energy (RE)
play remains a catalyst. The stock currently trades at 24% below NTA;
BUY.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,641.3
|
1,646.8
|
1,646.9
|
1,721.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
205.7
|
(160.8)
|
150.9
|
176.5
|
|
Core net profit
|
45.7
|
(262.3)
|
49.7
|
70.5
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.4
|
(12.3)
|
2.3
|
3.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
3.4
|
nm
|
nm
|
41.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
14.5
|
nm
|
15.2
|
10.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
2.0
|
(12.2)
|
2.1
|
2.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.1
|
(5.8)
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.1
|
nm
|
10.6
|
8.6
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
19.2
|
37.4
|
34.6
|
30.8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.00
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR3.80
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Breaking records
since 2013
|
|
FY16 core net profit came in at MYR61m, meeting 104%/109%
of our/ consensus’ forecasts. This would be the fourth consecutive year
of YoY growth in core earnings, a commendable achievement for ViTrox
despite being in the cyclical technology sector. We keep our earnings
forecasts pending an analyst briefing today. Maintain HOLD with an
unchanged TP of MYR3.80, pegged to an unchanged 14x CY17 EPS (+1SD).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY15A
|
FY16A
|
FY17E
|
FY18E
|
|
Revenue
|
160.3
|
234.0
|
251.4
|
272.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
59.1
|
65.2
|
79.9
|
87.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
51.3
|
60.8
|
63.9
|
63.6
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
21.8
|
25.8
|
27.1
|
27.0
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
1.9
|
18.4
|
5.2
|
(0.5)
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
5.0
|
6.4
|
6.8
|
6.8
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
18.4
|
15.5
|
14.7
|
14.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
4.5
|
3.6
|
3.0
|
2.6
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.3
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
23.2
|
27.6
|
22.4
|
19.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
21.2
|
19.2
|
15.0
|
12.3
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
12.7
|
12.2
|
11.2
|
9.9
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Speedbump to 1Q 2017 growth…?
by
Suhaimi Ilias
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Index of leading economic indicators in Dec 2016
declined YoY at a slower pace of -0.5% YoY (Nov 2016: -1.4% YoY) and
rebounded MoM by +0.9% (Nov 2016: -0.3% MoM). More importantly, It
fell by a larger -1.0% YoY in Oct-Dec 2016 vs -0.6% YoY in July-Sep 2016,
hinting at potential speedbump in 1Q 2017 GDP growth after the pickup
in 2H 2016 as the index leads GDP by one quarter.
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Suhaimi Ilias
|
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|
Zamros
Dzulkafli
|
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|
At the crossroads
by Tee
Sze Chiah
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
FBMKLCI sank below the 1,700 psychological support
last Friday after falling 6.13pts to close the week at 1,698.35.
Sentiment in the broader market was negative with losers outpacing
gainers by 530 to 358. Trading volume of 3.01b worth MYR2.52b was
recorded last Friday. A negative close below 1,700 implies a weaker
connotation and may prolong the correction. However, downside may be
capped within immediate supports at 1,685 and 1,667.
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NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.K: Services firms plan to increase prices by most in a
decade as their margins are squeezed by higher costs. Business-services
companies such as accountants and law firms expect to increase average
selling prices in the next three months by the most since February 2007,
according to a quarterly survey by the London-based Confederation of
British Industry. Consumer-services providers such as hotels and
restaurants predict they will raise prices by the most in nine years.
(Source: Bloomberg)
U.K: To unveil Brexit migrant plans within months, Rudd
says. Britain is to unveil plans for overhauling migrant-worker rules
after Brexit in a report later this year, Home Secretary Amber Rudd said,
as she promised to act on public fears over immigration. Rudd said her
office is “looking at all the different options” for managing immigration
from the European Union once the U.K. leaves the bloc. It could include
the merits of a work- permit scheme, a multi-year visa system and
scrapping the right of migrants to claim social-security benefits while
working. (Source: Bloomberg)
China: PBOC to create favorable environment for
international bond investors. PBOC sees huge potential of growing foreign
investment in China’s bond market, the central bank says in statement,
citing deputy governor Pan Gongsheng’s comment on the inclusion of
Chinese bond market in Bloomberg Barclays fixed income indexes. Move can
help global investors allocate bond assets, Pan says. PBOC will continue
improving policies to create more favorable environment for foreign
investors, Pan says. (Source: Bloomberg)
Hong Kong: Twin records for property flout bid to tame hot
market. Hong Kong’s property market is setting new records, quashing
attempts by the city’s leaders to tame surging home prices. Existing home
prices reached an all-time high in the week ended Feb. 19, according to
the Centaline Property Centa-City Leading Index, which tracks sales of
secondary homes. In another sign of buyer demand, two Chinese companies
bid a record HKD16.9b (USD 2.2b) for a piece of waterfront land zoned for
residential development. (Source: Bloomberg)
Crude Oil: U.S. drilling rebound tests OPEC supply cuts.
U.S. explorers boosted the number of rigs drilling for crude to the most
since October 2015 as investors weighed record U.S. inventories against
production cuts from OPEC. American drillers increased the oil rig count
by five to 602 last week, the highest level since October 2015, according
to Baker Hughes Inc. U.S. government data showed stockpiles at the most in
weekly data going back to 1982. The United Arab Emirates is working to
ensure total compliance with OPEC production limits, Al Bayan newspaper
reported, citing Ahmed Al Kaabi, the country’s OPEC governor. (Source:
Bloomberg)
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Other News:
LNG Resources: Allocates MYR50m for M&A plan.
High-precision engineering group LNG Resources is allocating MYR50m for a
merger and acquisition exercise this year to expand its presence in the
aerospace industry. Group managing director Jackie Yong Chan Cheah said
that the group is now in discussions with three companies involved in the
manufacturing of parts and components for the aerospace sector. Of the
MYR50m allocation, about MYR30m will be used for the M&A deal, while
the other MYR20m as working capital for the acquisition. Yong said if the
negotiation with one the companies is successful, the M&A exercise
could be completed in two to three years. (Source: The Star)
Boustead Heavy: Back in the black for Q4. Boustead Heavy
Industries Corp returned to the black in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31,
2016, registering a net profit of MYR55.6m, against a net loss of
MYR52.26m in the preceding year’s corresponding quarter, driven by
revised costs of its defence-related maintenance, repair and overhaul
projects. The group has declared an interim single tier dividend of 3 sen
per share for the financial year ending Dec 31 2017 which will be paid on
March 30, 2017. The group has declared an interim single tier dividend of
3 sen per share for the financial year ending Dec 31 2017 which will be
paid on March 30, 2017. (Source: The Sun Daily)
Dayang Enterprise: Plans private placement to raise
MYR87.7m. Dayang Enterprise proposes to undertake a private placement
exercise to raise MYR87.71m to repay bank borrowings. The group said the
expected amount raised is based on an indicative placement price of MYR1
per share. Proceeds from the private placement will be used to repay bank
borrowings, which stood at MYR1.64b as at Dec 31, 2016. (Source: The Sun
Daily)
Sedania Innovator: To buy fintech company for MYR12m.
Sedania Innovator proposes to acquire a syariah-based financial
technology company for MYR12m. The company said since 2010, the fintech
company Sedania As Salam Capital has been providing As-Sidq, a Tawarruq
commodity trading system that uses prepaid telecommunication airtime
credit as the traded commodity based on syariah principles. Sedania said
the purchase sum will be satisfied via MYR4m cash while the remaining
MYR8m via the issuance of 25.8m new Sedania shares at an issue price of
31 sen per share. (Source: The Sun Daily)
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