Strong Exports, Outlook Still Challenging

Economic Research	18 January 2017
Singapore
Economic Update
Strong Exports, Outlook Still Challenging  Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 9.4% YoY in Dec 2016, slower than its 11.5% surge the month before, but robust nonetheless. Despite the late flourish, we expect exports to remain subdued this year (2017F: +1.0%, 2016: -3.2%), with the boost from higher commodity prices and global fiscal stimulus spending tampered by rising borrowing costs, currency volatility in ASEAN and rising uncertainty in G3 (Trump Presidency, national elections in Europe and Brexit). In the short-term, non-oil retained intermediate imports (NORI) slowed but remained positive, while the semiconductor book-to-bill ratio came in at under 1 for the second consecutive month (0.96), pointing to slower manufacturing growth in the coming months. Economist:  Ng Kee Chou | +603 92802179
To access our recent reports please click on the links below: 04 January 2017: Strong End To 2016 But Outlook Remains Onerous 03 January 2017: November M3 Continued To Gain Strongly 27 December 2016: CPI Breaks Two-Year Deflationary Trend 27 December 2016: November IPI Jumped Sharply From Low Base 19 December 2016: November NODX Rebounds, Challenges Ahead 01 December 2016: M3 Surged On Low Base Effect, Improving Loan Growth