Tuesday, October 4, 2016

US Treasury yields ended higher across the curve, after consolidating at the lower ranges in

Market Roundup
  • US Treasury yields ended higher across the curve, after consolidating at the lower ranges in the early session, reacting to mixed economic data releases, coupled with rising oil prices. Brent crude oil settled higher at $50.89/bbl, up from $49.06/bbl late last week.
  • USD was traded firmer against the major rivals. EUR/USD corrected slightly lower to 1.1211, whilst we still see short term resistance at 1.1280-1.1300. Elsewhere, GBP/USD fell to 1.12842, after the UK Prime Minister Theresa May signaled for a “hard Brexit” early this week.
  • Ringgit bond market was closed Monday for a public holiday. Last Friday, Ringgit govvies closed mixed, with gains led by higher crude oil prices, but strength was capped heading towards long weekend. Elsewhere, daily trading volume was thinner at RM2.1 billion, in contrast to RM4 billion a day prior.
  • Thai government bonds strengthened a tad early the week, in conjunction with gains in regional stock markets, aided by firmer crude oil prices and improved sentiment on the Deutsche Bank’s health concern.
  • Thai inflation rose by 0.38% in Sep, slightly lower than consensus of 0.40%. Meantime, the core CPI registered at 0.75%, versus consensus 0.80%. Although the inflation data was steadily increasing since Jul, we reckon that the softer-than-expected inflation data may provide short term support to the Thai bonds at this juncture.
  • Indonesian government bonds were traded firmer amid improved global sentiment on the back of eased concerns on Deutsche Bank's fines. Local banks and investors tried to accumulate bonds at the bottom, sending yield curve down on average by 3-5 bps. MoF will be holding Syariah bond auction tomorrow with IDR3 trillion target, IDR1 trillion smaller than usual IDR4 trillion target per auction. We think demand will be moderate and might be dominated by local players. Market volume was small amounting IDR7.5 trillion and dominated by bonds maturing in over 10 years (37%) and bonds maturing between 5 and 10 years (30%).

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