Thursday, October 27, 2016

BHS Industries: In discussions with potential investors for Pekan tissue paper factory. BHS Industries is in talks with potential investors to set up a 5,000 tonne capacity tissue paper factory, as part of the first phase of the Pekan Green Technology Park in Kg Paloh Hinai, Pekan, Pahang. BHS is developing a total of 375 acres of land in Pekan into a green






MRCB-Quill REIT | 3Q16 earnings on track
Kevin Wong







Nestle Malaysia | Fairly valued for now
Liew Wei Han









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Regional Plantations | Conference takeaways
Chee Ting Ong









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Singapore | Implies better 3Q 2016 GDP
Suhaimi Ilias








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COMPANY RESEARCH





Results Review





MRCB-Quill REIT (MQREIT MK)
by Kevin Wong





Share Price:
MYR1.27
Target Price:
MYR1.35
Recommendation:
Buy




3Q16 earnings on track

3Q16 results were in line whereby the higher YoY revenue was offset by higher non-operating expenses. We nudge up FY16-18 net profit forecasts by 0.6-1.9% as we adjust our key assumptions, but our MYR1.35 DDM-TP is intact. We continue to like MQREIT for its resilient earnings and sustained distributions which are backed by long-term office tenants.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
70.2
115.2
131.2
185.1
Net property income
53.3
90.3
101.9
140.1
Distributable income
34.2
54.0
61.1
92.6
DPU (sen)
7.5
6.9
7.8
7.8
DPU growth (%)
0.0
(8.1)
12.8
(0.9)
Price/DPU(x)
16.8
18.3
16.2
16.4
P/BV (x)
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
DPU yield (%)
5.9
5.5
6.2
6.1
ROAE (%)
7.5
8.4
6.7
8.2
ROAA (%)
4.7
4.9
3.8
4.7
Debt/Assets (x)
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4










Company Update





Nestle Malaysia (NESZ MK)
by Liew Wei Han





Share Price:
MYR78.40
Target Price:
MYR78.00
Recommendation:
Hold




Fairly valued for now

We expect 4Q16 results be to seasonally weaker on higher A&P expenses. Its mass market appeal consumer goods and new product launches should continue to help support domestic sales growth. Meanwhile, export sales should continue the positive growth momentum on new product launches to neighbouring countries. Nevertheless, we believe NESZ is fairly valued now, trading about in line with its 5-year mean of 26.8x. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged DCF-TP of MYR78.00.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
4,808.9
4,838.0
5,152.4
5,554.3
EBITDA
837.2
886.0
1,025.6
1,080.6
Core net profit
550.4
590.7
670.1
694.2
Core EPS (sen)
234.7
251.9
285.8
296.1
Core EPS growth (%)
(2.0)
7.3
13.4
3.6
Net DPS (sen)
235.0
260.0
282.9
293.1
Core P/E (x)
33.4
31.1
27.4
26.5
P/BV (x)
23.7
25.9
25.7
25.5
Net dividend yield (%)
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.7
ROAE (%)
69.1
79.5
94.1
96.6
ROAA (%)
25.1
24.7
26.3
26.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
19.4
19.8
18.2
17.3
Net debt/equity (%)
20.4
47.4
42.6
37.9







SECTOR RESEARCH






Sector Note
by Chee Ting Ong


Conference takeaways





The 2017’s palm oil outlook will focus on supply. The current drawdown in inventory will reverse in 2017 when yields recover post El Nino. This may lead to a sharp correction in CPO price in 2H17 during its seasonal peak output months. In the near term, CPO price is likely to trade sideways till 1Q17. We maintain our NEUTRAL call on the sector. Bottom-up, we prefer Singapore (BUY FR & BAL) and Indonesia (BUY AALI, LSIP & TBLA) listed planters over Malaysian peers for their cheaper valuations.









MACRO RESEARCH






Economics Research
by Suhaimi Ilias


Implies better 3Q 2016 GDP





Industrial Production (IP) growth accelerated +6.7% YoY in Sep 2016 (Aug 2016: +0.5% YoY) and expanded +1.3% YoY in 3Q 2016 (2Q 2016: +1.4% YoY), suggesting upward revision to final 3Q 2016 GDP from the earlier advanced estimate of +0.6% YoY (2Q 2016: +2.0% YoY).







NEWS


Outside Malaysia:

U.S: Smaller trade deficit adds to chances of bigger GDP rebound. Tracking estimates of third-quarter U.S. growth are rising because of a shrinking merchandise trade deficit, though a drop in September imports shows a step back in underlying demand in the economy. The goods-trade gap narrowed 5.2% to USD 56.1b in September, the smallest since March, based on Census Bureau data, while figures on wholesale and retail inventories showed increases, according to a preliminary report issued by the Commerce Department. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S: Sales of new homes remain close to an almost nine-year high. Purchases of new U.S. homes in September stayed close to an almost nine-year high, showing residential real estate were maintaining momentum heading into the quieter selling season. Sales climbed 3.1% to a 593,000 annualized rate from an August pace that was weaker than initially reported, Commerce Department data showed. Purchases in June and July were revised lower. (Source: Bloomberg)

Brazil: Disappointing jobs report suggests slow recovery. Brazil lost more jobs than forecast in September, reinforcing concern that the country’s economy faces a slow and difficult recovery. Latin America’s largest economy shed a net 39,282 positions last month. Brazil has lost nearly 3 million jobs over the past two years amid the deepest recession on record, souring the mood of the country as President Michel Temer plans to overhaul the pension system and labor legislation. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K. Consumers binge on borrowing after August BOE rate cut. U.K. consumer credit is rising at the fastest pace in a decade and the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut is fueling borrowing, according to the British Bankers Association. Its monthly report showed credit surged an annual 6.7% in September, up from 5.3% a year earlier and the biggest increase since December 2006. Credit card borrowing was up 6.1%, while short-term loans and overdrafts rose 7.2%, the most since 2013. (Source: Bloomberg)





Other News:

BHS Industries: In discussions with potential investors for Pekan tissue paper factory. BHS Industries is in talks with potential investors to set up a 5,000 tonne capacity tissue paper factory, as part of the first phase of the Pekan Green Technology Park in Kg Paloh Hinai, Pekan, Pahang. BHS is developing a total of 375 acres of land in Pekan into a green technology park where the main industries located in the park will be using green technology to convert empty fruit bunches into pulp and paper, box liner paper, corrugated paper and tissue paper. The development will be divided into five phases. For Phase 1, the total construction cost expected to be incurred abot MYR4.2m on infrastructural work as part of the cost of construction. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Mudajaya: Sets up USD200m note programme, eyes overseas investments. Mudajaya’s wholly-owned subsidiary Mudajaya Ventures Ltd has established a euro medium-term note (EMTN) programme with nominal value of up to USD200m (MYR832m). It had obtained Bank Negara’s approval for the EMTN programme. The programme will have an availability term of 10 years from the issuance date of the first series of the notes. The proceeds from the issuance of the notes would be utilised towards funding new overseas investments in Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries identified by the management, as well as for general corporate purposes. (Source: The Star)

Yong Tai: Secures en bloc sales worth MYR461m. Yong Tai has secured en bloc sales worth MYR461m and a fit out contract worth MYR412m from Phase 1A of Impression City, a mixed development project. Its subsidiary YTB Impression Sdn Bhd (YTB) signed a sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with Orient Venture Properties Bhd for the sale of 262 units of retail lots and lofts in Phase 1A. The company will also carry out renovation works on the property for Orient Venture Properties under the fit out contract. (Source: The Sun Daily)


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