Friday, June 3, 2016

Daily FX Update, 03 June 2016

v  US ADP reports 173,000 private-sector jobs added in May
v  US initial jobless claims fall to five-week low
v  ECB keeps interest rates unchanged with neutral changes to forecasts
v  OPEC fails to reach agreement on oil production levels

OVERNIGHT MARKET UPDATE:
·         US – ADP reported that the private-sector employment gains accelerated in May as employers added 173,000 jobs, compared to the upwardly revised 166,000 in April. Service-sector firms continued to propel job growth in May, upping hiring slightly from April and offsetting another decline in factory head counts.  
·         US – The initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000, the lowest level in five weeks. The average of new claims over the past month slipped by 1,750.
·         Euro area – The ECB held all rates. The 2016 GDP forecast was increased to 1.6% from 1.4% previously, 2017 was unchanged, and 2018 saw growth trimmed 0.1 ppt to 1.7%. On inflation, 2016 was lifted to 0.2% from 0.1%, while 2017 and 2018 were unchanged. The start date for purchases of corporate bonds will be 8 June.
·         Currencies – The euro weakened against the US dollar as ECB’s updated projections showed annual inflation remaining well below the Bank’s 2% target in the coming years are suggesting further stimulus. Elsewhere, strong employment data in US also helped to support the US dollar against commodity-linked currencies. However, the Japanese yen strengthened after Takehiro Sato, a member of BoJ’s policy-setting board, said BoJ should go more slowly in trying to achieve its 2% inflation target.    
·         Equities – US stocks closed modestly higher as oil prices reversed course to settle higher after a weekly report showed a decline in US crude inventories. The S&P500 rose by 0.3% to close at the highest level since 3rd November 2015.
·         Rates – US Treasury yields declined as demand for relatively safe assets rose following the failure by the OPEC to reach an agreement on production.
·         Energy – Crude oil prices finish higher as support from weekly declines in US crude supplies and output offsets earlier pressure from the OPEC’s failure to reach a pact to cap member production.
·         Precious Metals – Gold prices closed lower as stronger US employment data suggesting a higher chance of Fed rates hike in this coming summer. Higher US dollar also dampened the appeal of the yellow metal.

INDICATIVE MAJOR CURRENCIES

Last Close
8.02 am Snapshot
Expected Range for Today
Bid
Offer
Low
High
USD/MYR
4.1495
4.1310
4.1680
4.1290
4.1740
JPY/MYR
3.8163
3.7890
3.8300
3.7800
3.8500
SGD/MYR
3.0187
2.9980
3.0340
2.9900
3.0500
EUR/MYR
4.6292
4.6080
4.6470
4.5800
4.6800
AUD/MYR
2.9988
2.9800
3.0180
2.9600
3.0400
GBP/MYR
5.9906
5.9550
5.9970
5.9300
6.0400
USD/JPY
108.73
108.70
109.11
108.30
109.30
EUR/USD
1.1156
1.1000
1.1310
1.1100
1.1210
AUD/USD
0.7227
0.7070
0.7380
0.7180
0.7280
Source: Bloomberg, AmBank

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