Resurgent Private Consumption To Help Thailand Weather External Storm

Economic Research	29 June 2016
Thailand
Economic Outlook
Resurgent Private Consumption To Help Thailand Weather External Storm Britain’s decision to leave the EU has plunged global demand back into a state of uncertainty, amplifying the imperative to look domestically for growth. Thailand’s current administration has been cultivating domestic demand with a plethora of fiscal stimulus and tax policies since 4Q 2015, and we are likely see the resurgence of private consumption demand in the coming quarters. We believe the growth trajectory of private consumption is fairly entrenched and will be able to offset further pressure on the country’s merchandise exports. This, together with support from investment led by public investment, will likely help to sustain Thailand’s economic growth at 3.1% y-o-y in 2H, compared to +3.3% in 1H. Hence, we are keeping our real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 3.2% for the year (+2.8% in 2015). Economist:  Peck Boon Soon  | +603 9280 2163 Economist:  Ng Kee Chou | +603 9280 2179
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