Monday, November 2, 2015

[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

02 Nov 2015, Monday




MY: CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)
Share Price: MYR4.61
Target Price: MYR4.90
Recommendation: Hold


Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com


Company Update: Niaga: Coal NPLs sold to SPV

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Operating income
14,671.8
14,145.9
14,800.9
15,351.7
Pre-provision profit
6,214.0
5,854.0
5,622.0
6,992.7
Core net profit
4,188.2
3,159.0
3,385.4
4,013.8
Core FDEPS (MYR)
0.60
0.37
0.34
0.48
Core FDEPS growth(%)
2.6
(37.5)
(9.4)
40.4
Net DPS (MYR)
0.23
0.15
0.16
0.19
Core FD P/E (x)
7.7
12.3
13.6
9.7
P/BV (x)
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
Net dividend yield (%)
5.0
3.3
3.5
4.1
Book value (MYR)
4.02
4.53
4.64
4.92
ROAE (%)
14.3
9.3
8.9
10.0
ROAA (%)
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
§  Niaga’s 9M15 results were below expectations on still elevated provision levels.
§  CIMB Group earnings unchanged for FY15, lowered by 4%/8% for FY16/17 on higher credit costs, lower NIMs for Niaga.
§  Maintain HOLD on CIMB Group – TP cut to MYR4.90 from MYR5.60 on lower FY16 ROE of 10.0% (10.7% previously).

MY: Petronas Gas (PTG MK)
Share Price: MYR22.98
Target Price: MYR24.00
Recommendation: Hold


Chi Wei Tan
(603) 2297 8690
chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: Back to trend

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
3,892.1
4,391.7
4,514.8
4,543.7
EBITDA
2,647.4
2,988.3
3,051.7
3,125.6
Core net profit
1,514.0
1,784.9
1,829.6
1,854.3
Core EPS (sen)
76.5
90.2
92.5
93.7
Core EPS growth (%)
12.2
17.9
2.5
1.4
Net DPS (sen)
55.0
55.0
64.7
65.6
Core P/E (x)
30.0
25.5
24.9
24.5
P/BV (x)
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.9
Net dividend yield (%)
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
ROAE (%)
15.6
17.2
16.9
16.3
ROAA (%)
11.3
13.5
13.5
13.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
18.1
14.8
15.1
14.8
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
2.3
5.2
6.1
§  9M15 headline net profit included a substantial unrealised forex loss in 3Q15; core profit slightly ahead on lower taxes.
§  QoQ core earnings growth was a base effect, as 2Q15 was impacted by higher repair/maintenance activities.
§  Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged at MYR24.00; PTG remains a stock with a very stable earnings profile.

MY: Malaysia Banking
Recommendation: Neutral

Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com

Sector Note: Loan approval rates decline in Sep | NEUTRAL


§  Working capital loan demand continues to support industry loan growth as household lending wanes.
§  Aggregate loan approval rates however have fallen to a new low of 43% on a 3M moving average (MA) basis.
§  Maintaining loan growth forecasts. NEUTRAL on the sector; BUY BIMB, HL Bank, HLFG.

MY: Money Supply, September 2015

Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
Economics Research: Money supply (M3) growth up further


§  Money supply (M3) growth quickened for the second month in a row in Sep 2015.
§  Largely reflects stabilization in net foreign assets.
§  As Bank Negara embarked on rebuilding external reserves.

MY: Technicals

Lee Cheng Hooi
(603) 2297 8694
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com

Technical Research: Local index ignores US positive action


§  FBM KLCI – Rising Wedge breakdown. Sell on rallies.
§  CPO Futures – Re-testing MYR2,460 soon?
§  DJIA – A minor positive close.
§  UMWOG – Weekly and monthly downtrend stock.

MY: Other News

Malaysia Research Team

Economics Research:


Outside Malaysia
  U.S: Consumer spending rose less than forecast in September
  China: Factory gauge signals contraction continued a third month in October
  China: Unfazed by record capital outflows, steps up market reform
Malaysia
  Automotive: Perodua expands into pre-owned vehicle retail segment, improves after-sales service
  AirAsia: Philippines will list in first quarter of 2017, insists Fernandes
  Ewein: Set to bag second Penang project by year end

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