Monday, November 2, 2015

[Maybank Kim Eng] Today's Research - Malaysia

02 Nov 2015, Monday




MY: CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)
Share Price: MYR4.61
Target Price: MYR4.90
Recommendation: Hold


Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com


Company Update: Niaga: Coal NPLs sold to SPV

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Operating income
14,671.8
14,145.9
14,800.9
15,351.7
Pre-provision profit
6,214.0
5,854.0
5,622.0
6,992.7
Core net profit
4,188.2
3,159.0
3,385.4
4,013.8
Core FDEPS (MYR)
0.60
0.37
0.34
0.48
Core FDEPS growth(%)
2.6
(37.5)
(9.4)
40.4
Net DPS (MYR)
0.23
0.15
0.16
0.19
Core FD P/E (x)
7.7
12.3
13.6
9.7
P/BV (x)
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
Net dividend yield (%)
5.0
3.3
3.5
4.1
Book value (MYR)
4.02
4.53
4.64
4.92
ROAE (%)
14.3
9.3
8.9
10.0
ROAA (%)
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
§  Niaga’s 9M15 results were below expectations on still elevated provision levels.
§  CIMB Group earnings unchanged for FY15, lowered by 4%/8% for FY16/17 on higher credit costs, lower NIMs for Niaga.
§  Maintain HOLD on CIMB Group – TP cut to MYR4.90 from MYR5.60 on lower FY16 ROE of 10.0% (10.7% previously).

MY: Petronas Gas (PTG MK)
Share Price: MYR22.98
Target Price: MYR24.00
Recommendation: Hold


Chi Wei Tan
(603) 2297 8690
chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com

Results Review: Back to trend

FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
Revenue
3,892.1
4,391.7
4,514.8
4,543.7
EBITDA
2,647.4
2,988.3
3,051.7
3,125.6
Core net profit
1,514.0
1,784.9
1,829.6
1,854.3
Core EPS (sen)
76.5
90.2
92.5
93.7
Core EPS growth (%)
12.2
17.9
2.5
1.4
Net DPS (sen)
55.0
55.0
64.7
65.6
Core P/E (x)
30.0
25.5
24.9
24.5
P/BV (x)
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.9
Net dividend yield (%)
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
ROAE (%)
15.6
17.2
16.9
16.3
ROAA (%)
11.3
13.5
13.5
13.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
18.1
14.8
15.1
14.8
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
2.3
5.2
6.1
§  9M15 headline net profit included a substantial unrealised forex loss in 3Q15; core profit slightly ahead on lower taxes.
§  QoQ core earnings growth was a base effect, as 2Q15 was impacted by higher repair/maintenance activities.
§  Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged at MYR24.00; PTG remains a stock with a very stable earnings profile.

MY: Malaysia Banking
Recommendation: Neutral

Desmond Ch'ng
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com

Sector Note: Loan approval rates decline in Sep | NEUTRAL


§  Working capital loan demand continues to support industry loan growth as household lending wanes.
§  Aggregate loan approval rates however have fallen to a new low of 43% on a 3M moving average (MA) basis.
§  Maintaining loan growth forecasts. NEUTRAL on the sector; BUY BIMB, HL Bank, HLFG.

MY: Money Supply, September 2015

Suhaimi Ilias
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
Zamros Dzulkafli
(603) 2082 6818
zamros.d@maybank-ib.com
Economics Research: Money supply (M3) growth up further


§  Money supply (M3) growth quickened for the second month in a row in Sep 2015.
§  Largely reflects stabilization in net foreign assets.
§  As Bank Negara embarked on rebuilding external reserves.

MY: Technicals

Lee Cheng Hooi
(603) 2297 8694
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com

Technical Research: Local index ignores US positive action


§  FBM KLCI – Rising Wedge breakdown. Sell on rallies.
§  CPO Futures – Re-testing MYR2,460 soon?
§  DJIA – A minor positive close.
§  UMWOG – Weekly and monthly downtrend stock.

MY: Other News

Malaysia Research Team

Economics Research:


Outside Malaysia
—  U.S: Consumer spending rose less than forecast in September
—  China: Factory gauge signals contraction continued a third month in October
—  China: Unfazed by record capital outflows, steps up market reform
Malaysia
—  Automotive: Perodua expands into pre-owned vehicle retail segment, improves after-sales service
—  AirAsia: Philippines will list in first quarter of 2017, insists Fernandes
—  Ewein: Set to bag second Penang project by year end

Weekly FX Update, 2 Nov 2015

v  US dollar picks up steam after the FOMC left the door ajar with a more hawkish tone
v  Euro weakens after the hawkish FOMC statement and softer data flows 
v  JPY appreciates following BoJ’s decision to leave the stimulus program unchanged
v  Asian currencies remains on a depreciation bias against USD as most domestic equity indices are declining

AmWatch - Property Sector : Reinstatement of DIBS for first time home owners? OVERWEIGHT

SECTOR FOCUS OF THE DAY
Property Sector : Reinstatement of DIBS for first time home owners?     OVERWEIGHT


The Edge Malaysia reported that the Federal government is considering a proposal by the REHDA to relax lending guidelines to boost first home ownership. This follows REHDA’s proposal to the government to reintroduce the Developers Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) for first time house buyers. DIBS is a scheme where a developer helps the buyer of its property to absorb the mortgage interest during its construction. According to The Edge Malaysia, the selling prices of properties sold that come with a DIBS package may fetch a premium of between 5% and 15%. Recall that the DIBS scheme was removed last year. 
The other measures include:- (i) 70% loan-to-value ratio ruling for third residential mortgage loans and above; (ii) introduction of Responsible Lending Guidelines; (iii) calculation of mortgage loans based on the net selling price of the property; and (iv) minimum threshold of RM1mil for foreign property investors. Plus, overall property sentiment has not been aided by a weakening Ringgit and the imposition of the GST in April. The push to reintroduce the DIBS policy followed a ‘wish list’ that REHDA had submitted to the Federal government ahead of Budget 2016. Among the key suggestions that was reportedly mooted are: (i) introduction of a homebuyer friendly scheme by banks, particularly for first time homeowners of houses priced up to RM500k; (ii) revision of the Bumiputera quota policy; (iii) GST relief for affordable housing and controlled properties; (iv) reduction in the cost of doing business; and (v) higher supply of affordable housing. 
While most of these requests were not directly addressed or mentioned during Budget 2016, the government’s subsequent willingness to reconsider DIBS could be a boost, in our view. If pushed through, we envisage the removal of the DIBS – along with inventory liquidation initiatives by developers – to eventually kickstart a recovery in transaction volumes. Such a move should help nurture a narrowing in discount to NAVs among property stocks. With the sector, we remain BUYERs of Mah Sing Group, MRCB, E&O and Titijaya Land

Others :
Banking Sector : Fifth consecutive month of higher impaired loans (loans)            NEUTRAL
Banking Sector : Foreign shareholdings in MGS retraced further in September (MGS) NEUTRAL
               

QUICK TAKES
CIMB Group : CIMB Niaga’s asset quality remains subdued in 3Q               HOLD
Malayan Banking : Rebound in net earnings for BII in 3QFY15       HOLD
Plantation Sector : Newsflow for week 26 to 30 October                OVERWEIGHT
Banking Sector : UOB’s 3Q briefing highlights prevailing cautious outlook                (UOB)                  NEUTRAL


NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Automotive Sector : Perodua expands into pre-owned vehicle retail segment
Airlines Sector : Airbus to spend RM25mil on new centre in Malaysia
Consumer Sector : Nestle ramps up instant noodles output as M’sians eat 3.6m packets a day



Fixed Income Weekly Pulse, 02 Nov 2015

 Highlights of the week:

·         US dollar picks up steam after the FOMC left the door ajar with a more hawkish tone

·         European Central Bank (ECB) hints an extension of its quantitative easing program by the end of this year

·         BoJ leave asset purchase program unchanged
·         RM weakens on the back of high credit risk premium and the plunge in local equity 
·         Local govvies edge higher tracing the movement of US Treasury yield
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