Friday, June 1, 2018

FW: [Maybank IB] Today's Research - Malaysia

 

 

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COMPANY
RESEARCH

Sime Darby Plantation | A relatively weak 3QFY18
Chee Ting Ong

RHB Bank | 1Q18 results above expectations
Desmond Ch'ng

Alliance Bank | FY18 results within expectations
Desmond Ch'ng

TIME dotCom | Positive start
Chi Wei Tan

Bumi Armada | 1Q18: Within expectations
Thong Jung Liaw

AMMB Holdings | Looking for topline growth
Desmond Ch'ng

Mah Sing Group | In line
Wei Sum Wong

Eversendai Corp | Core earnings fell short
Adrian Wong

Yong Tai Bhd | Miss not the forest for the trees
Samuel Yin Shao Yang

Asia File Corporation Bhd | Rising raw material costs
Mohd Hafiz Hassan

CSC Steel Holdings | Weak start to 2018
Mohd Hafiz Hassan

Tomypak Holdings | Higher sales expected in 2H18
Mohd Hafiz Hassan

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MACRO
RESEARCH

Malaysia | Fund Flows & Lookouts
Chew Hann Wong

Malaysia | Pre-GE14 pick up
Suhaimi Ilias

Malaysia | FBMKLCI Index: Risk Premium is Rising
Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah

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COMPANY RESEARCH

Malaysia

TP Revision

Sime Darby Plantation (SDPL MK)
by Chee Ting Ong

Share Price:

MYR5.54

Target Price:

MYR5.40

Recommendation:

Hold

A relatively weak 3QFY18

9MFY18 core earnings was slightly below our expectations on lower-than-expected CPO ASP achieved and 3Q output. For 4QFY18, SDPL warned of an impending one-off MYR206m impairment. We cut our FY18E headline and core earnings by 11%/4% to reflect the one-offs and weaker 3Q. Following which our new TP is MYR5.40 (previously MYR5.63) on unchanged 30x FY18 PER, implying a P/RNAV of 0.6x.

FYE Jun (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

11,946.5

14,779.4

16,284.3

17,480.9

EBITDA

2,176.9

3,423.8

3,312.1

3,520.0

Core net profit

772.8

1,128.7

1,224.3

1,310.5

Core EPS (sen)

11.4

16.6

18.0

19.3

Core EPS growth (%)

14.4

46.1

8.5

7.0

Net DPS (sen)

10.3

13.2

9.0

9.6

Core P/E (x)

48.8

33.4

30.8

28.8

P/BV (x)

3.9

3.0

2.7

2.5

Net dividend yield (%)

1.9

2.4

1.6

1.7

ROAE (%)

10.5

31.8

13.6

9.0

ROAA (%)

2.8

3.9

4.1

4.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

na

na

13.8

12.9

Net debt/equity (%)

132.4

57.3

44.4

41.4

Malaysia

Results Review

RHB Bank (RHBBANK MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR5.34

Target Price:

MYR5.90

Recommendation:

Hold

1Q18 results above expectations

A decent 1Q18 performance from RHB and our FY18/FY19 net profit forecasts are raised by 4%/2% respectively. NIMs are likely to soften in the coming quarters as would NOII growth, but this is likely to be mitigated in part by stronger loan growth and lower overheads, which were front-loaded in 1Q18. We continue to attach a CY19 P/BV peg of 0.9x to the stock (ROE: 9.4%) and maintain our TP of MYR5.90.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Operating income

6,189.9

6,386.7

6,761.8

7,114.2

Pre-provision profit

3,094.5

3,200.2

3,395.4

3,554.8

Core net profit

1,681.6

1,950.1

2,285.0

2,399.1

Core EPS (MYR)

0.44

0.51

0.57

0.60

Core EPS growth (%)

(36.9)

16.0

12.7

5.0

Net DPS (MYR)

0.12

0.15

0.18

0.19

Core P/E (x)

12.2

10.6

9.4

8.9

P/BV (x)

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

Net dividend yield (%)

2.2

2.8

3.4

3.6

Book value (MYR)

5.42

5.77

6.17

6.58

ROAE (%)

8.5

8.7

9.5

9.4

ROAA (%)

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.0

Malaysia

Results Review

Alliance Bank (ABMB MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR4.24

Target Price:

MYR5.00

Recommendation:

Buy

FY18 results within expectations

That costs were higher in FY3/18 was already a foregone conclusion but positively, Alliance Bank's investments in new products and its restructuring should start to bear fruit from FY19 onwards. Our forecasts are maintained, with an unchanged TP of MYR5.00 pegged to a CY19 PBV of 1.3x (ROE: 10%). BUY.

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY17A

FY18A

FY19E

FY20E

Operating income

1,469.4

1,572.0

1,634.3

1,702.8

Pre-provision profit

777.5

778.0

880.8

930.9

Core net profit

512.1

535.6

554.9

596.1

Core FDEPS (MYR)

0.34

0.35

0.36

0.38

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(1.9)

3.2

3.6

7.4

Net DPS (MYR)

0.16

0.15

0.16

0.17

Core FD P/E (x)

12.7

12.3

11.8

11.0

P/BV (x)

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

Net dividend yield (%)

3.8

3.6

3.8

4.1

Book value (MYR)

3.35

3.52

3.70

3.91

ROAE (%)

10.3

10.1

9.9

10.1

ROAA (%)

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

Malaysia

Results Review

TIME dotCom (TDC MK)
by Chi Wei Tan

Share Price:

MYR7.50

Target Price:

MYR8.50

Recommendation:

Hold

Positive start

1Q18 results were ahead of our forecast (probably in line with consensus), with the gains from MFRS 15 turning out to be more significant than expected. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged MYR8.50 TP (+1%) post our earnings revisions. It is still unclear whether TDC would be affected by the new government's broadband initiatives (half prices, double speeds).

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

766.9

860.7

956.3

1,066.6

EBITDA

292.6

297.2

363.4

405.3

Core net profit

246.6

175.4

227.2

262.3

Core EPS (sen)

42.8

30.2

39.1

45.1

Core EPS growth (%)

43.5

(29.2)

29.2

15.4

Net DPS (sen)

30.6

17.2

9.8

11.3

Core P/E (x)

17.5

24.8

19.2

16.6

P/BV (x)

2.0

1.9

2.2

2.0

Net dividend yield (%)

4.1

2.3

1.3

1.5

ROAE (%)

19.1

7.9

10.6

12.4

ROAA (%)

9.2

6.0

7.4

7.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

14.2

17.2

11.3

9.8

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

Bumi Armada (BAB MK)
by Thong Jung Liaw

Share Price:

MYR0.77

Target Price:

MYR1.02

Recommendation:

Buy

1Q18: Within expectations

Results came in-line, with expectations of stronger quarters ahead. We posit that BArmada has recovered from its slump and should deliver stronger financials and cashflows. We are positive of the FPSO sector. Tender pipeline is strong and we do not rule out BArmada winning a job this FY, a positive. Our SOP-based TP offers an attractive 39% upside.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

1,317.4

2,402.2

2,627.9

2,616.3

EBITDA

392.7

1,342.6

1,440.7

1,430.9

Core net profit

(163.8)

219.0

478.7

481.2

Core EPS (sen)

(2.8)

3.7

8.2

8.2

Core EPS growth (%)

nm

nm

118.6

0.5

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Core P/E (x)

nm

20.6

9.4

9.4

P/BV (x)

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ROAE (%)

(30.4)

6.3

8.3

7.7

ROAA (%)

(0.8)

1.1

2.5

2.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

34.6

10.6

9.4

9.0

Net debt/equity (%)

176.3

175.3

150.2

128.8

Malaysia

Results Review

AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)
by Desmond Ch'ng

Share Price:

MYR3.55

Target Price:

MYR4.20

Recommendation:

Buy

Looking for topline growth

FY18 was a fairly difficult year for AMMB, given that it was still in restructuring mode and the SME division saw a temporary setback. Now that operations have normalized, the focus will have to be in driving topline growth to mitigate the potential normalization of credit costs, for management's FY19 ROE target of 8.5% to be met. Valuations are undemanding with the stock trading at a prospective CY19 PER of 7.6x with a prospective yield of 5%. We maintain BUY with a marginally lower MYR4.20 TP.

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY17A

FY18A

FY19E

FY20E

Operating income

3,728.9

3,985.5

4,408.9

4,684.5

Pre-provision profit

1,568.4

1,564.7

2,000.7

2,207.0

Core net profit

1,196.9

1,202.0

1,328.7

1,440.5

Core EPS (MYR)

0.40

0.40

0.44

0.48

Core EPS growth (%)

(11.8)

0.4

10.3

8.4

Net DPS (MYR)

0.18

0.15

0.18

0.19

Core P/E (x)

8.9

8.9

8.1

7.4

P/BV (x)

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

Net dividend yield (%)

5.0

4.2

5.0

5.4

Book value (MYR)

5.32

5.48

5.74

6.03

ROAE (%)

7.7

7.4

7.9

8.1

ROAA (%)

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

Malaysia

Results Review

Mah Sing Group (MSGB MK)
by Wei Sum Wong

Share Price:

MYR1.10

Target Price:

MYR1.31

Recommendation:

Hold

In line

After deducting the MYR18.3m distribution to perpetual sukuk holders, 1Q18 net profit of MYR46m (-36% YoY) was in line. 3M18 locked-in property sales of MYR470m were also in line. Management remains confident on achieving its internal sales target of MYR1.8b for 2018. We maintain our earnings forecasts and MYR1.31 RNAV-TP (on an unchanged 0.55x P/RNAV) for now. Maintain HOLD.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

2,957.6

2,915.8

3,012.9

3,059.9

EBITDA

509.1

506.8

590.4

590.6

Core net profit

319.5

294.9

317.6

317.0

Core EPS (sen)

13.3

12.2

13.1

13.1

Core EPS growth (%)

(5.7)

(8.2)

7.7

(0.2)

Net DPS (sen)

6.5

6.5

5.2

5.2

Core P/E (x)

8.3

9.0

8.4

8.4

P/BV (x)

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

Net dividend yield (%)

5.9

5.9

4.8

4.8

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

5.0

4.4

4.6

4.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

6.9

4.8

2.5

2.3

Net debt/equity (%)

2.0

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

TP Revision

Eversendai Corp (EVSD MK)
by Adrian Wong

Share Price:

MYR0.94

Target Price:

MYR1.05

Recommendation:

Hold

Core earnings fell short

1Q18 core earnings came in below ours/consensus expectations. The oil & gas segment saw recovery, reporting a small PBT of MYR1m compared to losses in 1Q17. However, this was offset by its other key segments which reported lower PBT contributions YoY. We lower FY18E earnings by 5% after adjusting for margins at the Middle East segment. Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of MYR1.05 pegged to unchanged 12x FY18 PER.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

1,582.4

1,830.4

1,859.2

1,940.0

EBITDA

(201.3)

176.6

163.4

169.5

Core net profit

(113.0)

70.5

69.8

71.9

Core EPS (sen)

(14.6)

9.0

8.9

9.2

Core EPS growth (%)

nm

nm

(0.9)

3.0

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.7

0.8

Core P/E (x)

nm

10.4

10.5

10.2

P/BV (x)

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.8

0.8

ROAE (%)

(27.7)

9.6

7.6

7.3

ROAA (%)

(3.9)

2.3

2.2

2.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

nm

8.8

9.7

9.4

Net debt/equity (%)

87.0

96.9

86.6

81.2

Malaysia

TP Revision

Yong Tai Bhd (YTB MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang

Share Price:

MYR1.39

Target Price:

MYR1.71

Recommendation:

Buy

Miss not the forest for the trees

The weak 3QFY6/18 earnings were due to slow work progress at Terra Square – Retail. Yet, potential recognition of Impression City as a Belt & Road project will allay this concern. Our FY18/FY19/FY20 EPS estimates are modified by -53%/-2%/+10% and SOTP-based TP are trimmed 4sen to MYR1.71 (Fig 1). Our sensitivity analysis also suggests nil downside risk to YTB's current share price. Investor focus ought to be on Encore Melaka that will open on 1 Jul 2018 and generate net profit of ~MYR50m p.a..

FYE Jun (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

17.9

85.4

224.3

663.3

EBITDA

2.1

18.6

32.6

182.4

Core net profit

0.9

13.7

18.7

117.1

Core FDEPS (sen)

0.5

3.2

2.5

15.9

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(83.2)

492.7

(20.1)

526.6

Net DPS (sen)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Core FD P/E (x)

nm

43.7

54.6

8.7

P/BV (x)

2.5

1.2

1.2

1.0

Net dividend yield (%)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ROAE (%)

1.0

6.9

5.3

26.3

ROAA (%)

0.7

3.9

2.4

10.8

EV/EBITDA (x)

72.4

29.8

31.5

4.6

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

33.0

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

Asia File Corporation Bhd (AF MK)
by Mohd Hafiz Hassan

Share Price:

MYR2.70

Target Price:

MYR3.13

Recommendation:

Hold

Rising raw material costs

4QFY18 results were in line and we introduce our FY21 forecast. We expect flattish topline growth on an increasingly saturated stationery market but lower earnings on the expected uptrend in raw material prices. We think Asia File still lacks catalyst and hence, we maintain our HOLD rating for now with an unchanged TP of MYR3.13. This is based on FY19 PER of 11.6x (5-year average forward PER).

FYE Mar (MYR m)

FY17A

FY18A

FY19E

FY20E

Revenue

350.3

351.8

364.7

371.6

EBITDA

75.9

60.1

58.8

71.3

Core net profit

55.9

59.1

52.1

57.7

Core FDEPS (sen)

29.0

30.4

27.0

29.9

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(28.2)

4.8

(11.1)

10.7

Net DPS (sen)

16.0

15.0

14.0

15.0

Core FD P/E (x)

9.3

8.9

10.0

9.0

P/BV (x)

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

Net dividend yield (%)

5.9

5.6

5.2

5.6

ROAE (%)

na

na

na

na

ROAA (%)

8.7

8.9

7.5

7.9

EV/EBITDA (x)

8.2

7.2

7.9

6.2

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Rating Change

CSC Steel Holdings (CSCS MK)
by Mohd Hafiz Hassan

Share Price:

MYR1.35

Target Price:

MYR1.48

Recommendation:

Hold

Weak start to 2018

1Q18 results were below our expectations and we have cut our FY18/19/20 earnings forecasts to factor in higher raw material cost. We expect earnings to be dampened this year in view of margin pressure and stiff competition both locally and internationally. We downgrade the stock to HOLD with a new TP of MYR1.48 (-38sen) after rolling forward valuations on an unchanged FY19 PER of 10.5x (5-year avg forward PER).

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

1,035.2

1,323.2

1,286.4

1,328.8

EBITDA

106.4

105.3

85.9

94.3

Core net profit

72.5

70.7

46.0

51.9

Core EPS (sen)

19.7

19.1

12.5

14.1

Core EPS growth (%)

58.6

(2.7)

(34.9)

12.9

Net DPS (sen)

14.0

10.0

6.2

7.0

Core P/E (x)

6.9

7.1

10.8

9.6

P/BV (x)

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Net dividend yield (%)

10.4

7.4

4.6

5.2

ROAE (%)

8.7

7.3

5.5

6.1

ROAA (%)

8.5

8.0

5.1

5.6

EV/EBITDA (x)

4.9

3.9

2.8

2.3

Net debt/equity (%)

net cash

net cash

net cash

net cash

Malaysia

Results Review

Tomypak Holdings (TOMY MK)
by Mohd Hafiz Hassan

Share Price:

MYR

Target Price:

MYR0.81

Recommendation:

Hold

Higher sales expected in 2H18

1Q18 results were within our expectation and correspondingly, we maintain our forecasts for now. We expect the Group's core earnings to continue being supported by new local sales orders, operational cost savings and utilisation of reinvestment tax allowance. We keep our HOLD ratings with an unchanged TP of MYR0.81 based on FY19 PER of 16.5x.

FYE Dec (MYR m)

FY16A

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

Revenue

210.9

204.3

240.0

288.4

EBITDA

36.2

5.2

30.1

42.8

Core net profit

19.3

12.8

11.6

20.3

Core FDEPS (sen)

5.6

3.1

2.8

4.9

Core FDEPS growth(%)

(8.0)

(44.4)

(9.3)

75.2

Net DPS (sen)

3.4

2.6

1.1

2.0

Core FD P/E (x)

13.8

24.9

27.4

15.6

P/BV (x)

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

Net dividend yield (%)

4.5

3.4

1.5

2.6

ROAE (%)

11.7

7.2

5.6

9.8

ROAA (%)

8.4

4.6

3.9

6.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

6.4

84.8

12.5

9.0

Net debt/equity (%)

1.7

20.7

28.4

30.1

MACRO RESEARCH

MY: Malaysia Strategy

Fund Flows & Lookouts
by Chew Hann Wong

Strategy Research

May 18 saw heavy net sell by foreign investors of Malaysia equities (MYR5.6b), which reversed out the cumulative foreign net buy of MYR3.5b (Jan-Apr 18). Foreign investors' position for the first five months of 2018 was a net sell of e.MYR2b. Foreign investors were also net selling in Thailand, Indonesia & Philippines in May. Malaysia is vulnerable to further withdrawal of funds from Emerging Markets as foreign investors' net buy (MYR10.6b) of Malaysia equities 2017 was the highest in the region

MY: Malaysia Money Supply, Apr 2018

Pre-GE14 pick up
by Suhaimi Ilias

Economics Research

Money supply (M3) growth quickened to +6.2% YoY in Apr 2018 (Mar 2018: +5.9% YoY), driven by faster growth in net private credit growth (Apr 2018: +7.2% YoY; Mar 2018: +6.8% YoY) and deposit growth (Apr 2018: +5.3% YoY; Mar 2018: +4.9% YoY) as well as higher external reserves (end- Apr 2018: USD109.5b; end-Mar 2018: USD107.8b). Money supply growth is expected to moderate in the immediate post-GE14 months due to the uncertainty that comes with the unprecedented change in Government.

MY: Traders' Almanac

FBMKLCI Index: Risk Premium is Rising
by Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah

Technical Research

FBMKLCI closed broadly higher yesterday on bargain-hunting activities. At day's end, the benchmark rose 21.34pts to 1,740.62. Sentiment was lifted by window dressing activities and Wall Street's gain. Advancers were led by MISC, PMETAL and DIGI. Market breadth turned positive for the first time this week with gainers outpacing losers by 581 to 409. After US decided to apply tariffs on steel and aluminum shipments from its key allies, trade tensions are now back in focus.

NEWS

Outside Malaysia:

U.S: Allies hit back as Trump revokes steel tariff reprieve. America's closest allies plan to slap billions of dollars in tit-for-tat tariffs on U.S. goods after the Trump administration announced its imposing steel and aluminium duties on them. The reaction was swift after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the U.S. on Friday will levy new metals duties on imports from the European Union, Mexico and Canada on national security grounds, ending their temporary exemptions. The EU said it would take immediate steps to retaliate, while Mexico vowed to impose duties on everything from U.S. flat steel to cheese. Canada's government announced it will impose tariffs on as much as CAD16.6b (USD12.8b) of U.S. steel, aluminium and other products from July 1. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.S. Consumer-spending pickup adds more juice to second quarter. April's bigger-than-expected gain in U.S. consumer spending put the economy's projected second-quarter rebound on track to be even stronger. Purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, increased 0.6% from the prior month, after a 0.5% advance that was more than previously estimated. Adjusted for inflation, consumption had the best two- month advance since 2014. (Source: Bloomberg)

E.U: Euro-area inflation hit the fastest pace in more than year, some good news for European Central Bank officials debating the future policy path just as turmoil in Italy revives memories of the debt crisis. The 1.9% YoY rate, effectively in line with the ECB's goal, was up from just 1.2% YoY in April. The core measure rose to 1.1% YoY, also better than anticipated. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Official factory gauge rose as export orders accelerated, signalling trade continues to drive expansion as the global economy powers through risks. The manufacturing purchasing manager's index rose to an eight-month high of 51.9 in May. The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, rose for a third straight month to 54.9, the statistics bureau said, from 54.8 in April. Levels above 50 indicate improvement. The PMI for new export orders increased to 51.2 from 50.7, readings of input and output prices climbed and inventories and backlogs of work declined. (Source: Bloomberg)

Japan: Capital investment rises for sixth consecutive quarter, a better-than-expected result that could ease concerns over recent weakness in the economy. Company profits rose 0.2% during the quarter. Capital spending rose 3.4% YoY in the first quarter of 2018, following a 4.3% YoY gain in the previous quarter. Spending minus software increased 2.1% YoY, compared with a 4.7% YoY increase the previous quarter. Corporate profits were up 0.2%, compared with a 0.9% rise in the previous quarter. Company sales gained 3.2%. (Source: Bloomberg)

Other News:

My EG Services: Partners AIG for road care assistance programme. Its indirect subsidiary MYEG Auto Assist S/B has teamed up with AIG Malaysia Insurance Bhd to provide road care assistance to AIG's policyholders. MyEG said the two parties have entered into a two-year service agreement, which is expected to contribute positively to the earnings and net assets per share of the company for the financial years ending June 30, 2018 onwards. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Sumatec Resources: Back in the black in first quarter. Posted a net profit of MYR457,000 for the first quarter ended March 31, 2018 compared with a net loss of MYR743,000 a year ago thanks to revenue derived from consultation contract billing. Sumatec said the Rakushechnoye Concession is a quality asset. It is an onshore oil and gas field, which requires modest capital expenditures. Rakushechnoye's projected capital expenditure per wellbeing just a fraction compared to offshore production, the production cost per barrel for its operation will be low. (Source: The Sun Daily)

Parkson: Returns to profitability on improved China operations. After four consecutive loss-making quarters, Parkson Holdings Bhd returned to the black with a net profit of MYR25.3m or 2.37 sen earnings per share for the third quarter ended March 31, 2018 on the back of its China retailing operations. In the same period last year, it had made a net loss of MYR33.24m and loss per share of 3.11 sen. However, Parkson's quarterly revenue slipped 0.12% to MYR1.061b from MYR1.062b a year earlier. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

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