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Economic Research
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17
April 2017
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China
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Economic Update
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China’s
economic growth recorded a strong start in 1Q17, given support from the
manufacturing sector and more spending on infrastructure projects. The growth
momentum should continue in 2Q17, but we still expect
to see more headwinds from 2H17 onwards, amid:
1.
More cooling measures in the property market;
2.
Sluggish recovery of private consumption due to slower income growth and less
demand for automobiles;
3.
Industrial inventory possibly peaking in mid-2017;
4.
Funding difficulties for certain local governments as land sales decline;
5.
The tightening bias held by the PBoC;
As
such, GDP growth could slide towards 6.5% YoY in 2H17 and slow down
further
to 6.4% in 2018.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
Strong Start, But Headwinds Loom
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