Our base case for second round face-off (is also a result that is expected by consensus): Macron vs. Le Pen. Under this scenario, we expect EUR to remain in recent range of 1.0620 – 1.08, with bias to the upside. B

GBL: What French Elections May Mean for the EUR

FX Flash by Saktiandi Supaat

FX Research

Our base case for second round face-off (is also a result that is expected by consensus): Macron vs. Le Pen. Under this scenario, we expect EUR to remain in recent range of 1.0620 – 1.08, with bias to the upside. But the margin matters. A huge lead by Macron may see EUR much firmer. Deviation from market expectation could see EUR swing either way for instance a scenario without Macron in the second round face-off (such as Fillon vs. Melenchon or Le Pen vs. Melenchon) is expected to be ...