Friday, March 10, 2017

Risk-off Sentiment Pared 1Q17 Gains; 10y UST Surpasses 2.6%

10 March 2017



Global Sukuk Markets Weekly

Risk-off Sentiment Pared 1Q17 Gains; 10y UST Surpasses 2.6%



Highlights & Performance

¨   Index: Bloomberg Malaysia Sukuk Ex-MYR Total Return (BMSXMTR) and Dow Jones Sukuk Total Return (DJSUKTXR) index continued its drag to 105.12 (-0.24% WoW) and 162.2 (-0.29% WoW) respectively, with the index’s yield widening more than usual on a weekly basis by 6.5bps to 2.1%. Laggards this week were GBHK 27 (+18bps), DIBUH 17 (+17bps) and INDOIS 18-19 (+16bps). 10y UST yields rose by 12.7bps WoW to 2.61% driven by: (i) the auction of the multiple Treasury bonds during the week (3y, 10y and 30y); and (ii) ADP National Employment Report indicated private payrolls grew by 298k jobs in Feb-17, the largest increase since Dec-15 (consensus: 187k). On the other hand, WTI oil prices fell below the USD50 psychological level to USD49.7/bbl during the week.
¨   Economic Updates: In Asia, Malaysian reserves were unchanged at USD95bn as at end Feb-17 from Jan-17, while the coverage to retained imports improved marginally to 8.5 months from 8.4 months as at 15-Feb. In Indonesia, foreign reserves grew for the third consecutive month, rising by USD3bn from the preceding month to USD119bn at end Feb-17. Growth was attributed to: (i) capital inflows; and (ii) foreign exchange receipts, which includes tax revenues and the government’s oil and gas export proceeds. Looking to the Middle East, manufacturing improved slightly in the region as the Emirates NBD UAE PMI indicated some improvement from 55.3 in Jan-17 to 56 in Feb-17, while Saudi Arabia’s PMI also improved to 57 in Feb-17 from 56.7 in Jan-17. Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports declined further to -10.3% YoY in Dec-16 from -9.10% YoY in Nov-16.
¨   USD Sukuk Market: Primary issuances have remained quiet for the last two weeks ahead of the FOMC meeting as investors have priced in a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. Nevertheless, we maintain our USD sukuk supply forecast of up to USD23bn in 2017 after a record year of primary issuances in 2016 of USD21.74bn, in line with our forecast. Expect limited upside on returns on moderately stable oil prices given that the IMF forecasts USD55-58/bbl in 2017.
¨   MYR Sukuk Market: IDB plans to issue MYR sukuk after a three year hiatus.. This would make it the fourth ringgit denominated sukuk from the issuer. IDB has not determined whether it will be a private or public placement. The IDB board approved the issuance of a MYR400m sukuk issuance for 2017. In 2016, IDB rose its ceiling of its sukuk programme to USD25bn from USD10bn as the bank plans to expand its financing activities


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