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Share
Price:
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MYR8.89
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Target
Price:
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MYR9.05
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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2Q16 Results
Preview
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We project MYR50m 2Q16 net profit, about flattish YoY
(+2.0%) and QoQ (+1.1%), which would lift 1H16 net profit to MYR100m
(+4.0% YoY). We make no change to our earnings forecasts and MYR9.05 TP
which pegs on a 23x 2016 PER, in line with peers. Bursa offers a decent
4.1% normal yield with the ability to pay more. Maintain HOLD.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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503.8
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518.5
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540.6
|
568.8
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EBITDA
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297.0
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302.5
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315.0
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333.2
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Core net profit
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198.2
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198.6
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210.1
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222.9
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Core EPS (sen)
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37.2
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37.2
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39.3
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41.7
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Core EPS growth (%)
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14.4
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(0.0)
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5.7
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6.1
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Net DPS (sen)
|
54.0
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34.5
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36.5
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39.0
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Core P/E (x)
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23.9
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23.9
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22.6
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21.3
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P/BV (x)
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6.3
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5.9
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5.8
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5.7
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
6.1
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3.9
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4.1
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4.4
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ROAE (%)
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25.4
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25.6
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25.9
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27.0
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ROAA (%)
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11.7
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10.6
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9.9
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10.2
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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13.7
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13.8
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14.3
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13.6
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Net debt/equity (%)
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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net cash
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Share
Price:
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MYR6.48
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Target
Price:
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MYR6.13
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Business as
usual in Turkey
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Turkey’s state of emergency for three months should have
limited impact on IHH, as the Turkey operations only contributes 6% to
PATMI in FY15 and Turkey hospitals depend largely on local patients.
There is no change in our earnings forecasts and SOTP TP of MYR6.13.
Maintain HOLD.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
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7,344.0
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8,455.5
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10,547.2
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12,281.2
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EBITDA
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1,943.0
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2,218.7
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2,663.1
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3,065.6
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Core net profit
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785.0
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899.2
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1,011.7
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1,209.9
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Core FDEPS (sen)
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9.5
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10.9
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12.2
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14.6
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Core FDEPS growth(%)
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28.5
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14.5
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11.9
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19.6
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Net DPS (sen)
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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3.5
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Core FD P/E (x)
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67.9
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59.3
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53.0
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44.3
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P/BV (x)
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2.7
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2.4
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2.3
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2.2
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Net dividend yield (%)
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0.5
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0.5
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0.5
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0.5
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ROAE (%)
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4.2
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4.3
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4.5
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5.1
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ROAA (%)
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2.8
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2.8
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2.8
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3.2
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EV/EBITDA (x)
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22.1
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27.4
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23.0
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20.0
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Net debt/equity (%)
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9.3
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21.1
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24.6
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23.4
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Share
Price:
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MYR0.70
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Target
Price:
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MYR0.70
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Catalysts
remains elusive
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Our 10%-17% cut in 2016-18 earnings reflects the slowdown
in replenishment orders and the time lag on its cost savings
initiatives. That aside, asset and cost optimisation is still Barakah’s
key agenda over the next 2 years. The Pan Malaysia T&I Package A project
is its key growth driver. With minimal catalysts ahead, Barakah remains
a HOLD, with a lower TP of MYR0.70 (-9% post earnings revision), based
on unchanged 10x 2017 FD PER.
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FYE Dec (MYR m)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
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FY17E
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Revenue
|
866.3
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592.6
|
596.0
|
669.8
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EBITDA
|
141.5
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38.6
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79.5
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117.3
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Core net profit
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74.5
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12.8
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30.5
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60.0
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Core EPS (sen)
|
8.6
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1.5
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3.5
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7.0
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Core EPS growth (%)
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81.3
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(82.8)
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138.6
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96.7
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Net DPS (sen)
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0.0
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0.0
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0.0
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0.0
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Core P/E (x)
|
8.1
|
47.2
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19.8
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10.1
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P/BV (x)
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1.5
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1.7
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1.5
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1.3
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Net dividend yield (%)
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0.0
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0.0
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0.0
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0.0
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ROAE (%)
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28.4
|
3.8
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9.3
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16.1
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ROAA (%)
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12.1
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1.8
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4.5
|
8.7
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.1
|
21.8
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8.8
|
4.8
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Net debt/equity (%)
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11.0
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23.7
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26.3
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6.7
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Share
Price:
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SGD0.75
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Target
Price:
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SGD0.77
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Recommendation:
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Hold
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Expect poor 2Q16
results
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Our below-consensus earnings forecasts could still fall
short of expectations following worse-than-expected 2Q16 output (-26%
YoY, -17% QoQ) on El Nino’s lagged impact. We have probably witnessed
the worst of YoY yield declines in 2Q16 but there is heightened risk
that BAL will miss its 8% FFB growth guidance for 2016. We keep our
earnings forecasts pending fresh guidance. HOLD with an unchanged TP of
SGD0.77.
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FYE Dec (IDR b)
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FY14A
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FY15A
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FY16E
|
FY17E
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Revenue
|
5,757.3
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5,542.1
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6,622.4
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7,629.7
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EBITDA
|
2,118.5
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1,587.0
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1,827.1
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2,506.8
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Core net profit
|
1,243.1
|
964.2
|
972.2
|
1,374.9
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Core EPS (IDR)
|
707
|
549
|
553
|
782
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Core EPS growth (%)
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44.6
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(22.4)
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0.8
|
41.4
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Net DPS (IDR)
|
148
|
110
|
111
|
156
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Core P/E (x)
|
10.2
|
13.2
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13.1
|
9.3
|
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P/BV (x)
|
2.0
|
2.4
|
2.1
|
1.8
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Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.0
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
2.2
|
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ROAE (%)
|
20.5
|
16.5
|
17.3
|
21.0
|
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ROAA (%)
|
9.7
|
6.8
|
6.5
|
8.6
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EV/EBITDA (x)
|
10.3
|
11.0
|
9.6
|
6.8
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Net debt/equity (%)
|
61.2
|
94.3
|
70.4
|
48.1
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MACRO RESEARCH
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Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
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The FBMKLCI tumbled 12.07 points to close at 1,657.54
yesterday and the FBMEMAS and the FBM100 declined 80.88 points and
78.23 points respectively. In terms of market breadth, the
gainer-to-loser ratio was 203-to-648, while 301 counters were
unchanged. A total of 1.81b shares were traded valued at MYR1.70b.
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NEWS
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Outside Malaysia:
U.S: Sales of existing homes in June rise to highest level
in nine years, giving a boost to residential real estate as it approached
the end of its busy selling season. Contract closings climbed 1.1% to a
5.57 million annual rate (forecast was 5.48 million), the most since
February 2007. Sales increased 1.9% YoY from June 2015 before seasonal
adjustment. Inventory of available properties dropped 5.8% YoY to 2.12
million units, the lowest for a June since 2001. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.K: Retail sales had their biggest drop in six months in
June, adding to signs that the vote to leave the European Union is
starting to bite. The volume of goods sold in stores and online dropped
0.9%, more than the 0.6% decline seen in a Bloomberg survey of
economists, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed. Sales
excluding auto fuel also fell a larger-than-expected 0.9%.The monthly
survey was carried out between May 29 and July 2, meaning some responses
were received in the week following the June 23 Brexit referendum.
(Source: Bloomberg)
Japan: There is no need and no possibility of helicopter
money, central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said amid increasing
speculation about the course of monetary and fiscal policy in the world’s
third-largest economy. Given the current institutional setting, there is
"no need and no possibility for helicopter money," Kuroda said
in a BBC Radio 4 program. “At this moment, the Bank of Japan has three
options with quantitative and qualitative easing with negative interest
rates." These current policies can be expanded, he said. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Indonesia: Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate
on hold after a sustained period of easing with four reductions in the
first half of the year aimed at bolstering the economy. Governor Agus
Martowardojo and his board kept the reference rate at 6.5%, as forecast
by 10 of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The rest had predicted a
cut of 25 basis points. With inflation slowing and expected inflows from
a tax amnesty set to boost the currency, policy makers may have room to
resume rate reductions later this year. Consumer prices rose 3.5% YoY in
June, near the lowest level in more than six years. The bank targets
inflation of between 3 to 5%. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Other News:
Oil & Gas:Petronas Awards first production sharing
contract of 2016. Petronas awarded its first production sharing contract
(PSC) of the year to units of Thai state-owned PTT Exploration and
Production Public Co Ltd (PTTEP) and Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) for
exploration Block SK410B located offshore Sarawak. Under the terms of the
PSC, PTTEP’s unit PTTEP HK Offshore Ltd would operate the block with
participating interest of 42.5%, while Kuwait Foreign Petroleum
Exploration Co (Kufpec), through Kufpec Malaysia (SK-410B) Ltd, held
another 42.5%. Meanwhile, Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd has a 15% interest.
(Source: The Star)
Scomi Engineering: Seeks arbitration. The company seeks
over dispute with Prasarana in MYR494m job over the latter's decision to
terminate Scomi in the KL Monorail extension project due to an alleged
delay in train delivery. Scomi was contracted by Prasarana to deliver 12
sets of new four-car monorail trains, construct a new depot, install a
new signalling system and upgrade the KL Monorail stations, including the
electrical and mechanical system. The second supplemental contract
requires Scomi to deliver 10 sets of four-car trains, including seven
sets for revenue service, by Dec 31, 2015. Prasarana, however, claimed
only six sets of new four-car monorail trains had been delivered to date
Both parties are in dispute over the delay of the trains. (Source: The
Edge Financial Daily)
Dancomech: Targets 20% sales growth in next 3 to 5 years.
Dancomech Holdings, which made its debut on the Main Market of Bursa
Malaysia yesterday, is targeting sales growth of up to 20% in the next
three to five year pinning its hopes on a recovery in prices of crude
palm oil (CPO) and oil and gas (O&G) going forward. Managing director
Daniel Aik Swee Tong said, despite the market sentiment right now, they
are quite optimistic of maintaining their sales this year, as per last
year. In FY15, the company recorded revenue of MYR68.3 m.(Source: The Sun
Daily)
Yong Tai: Warrant holders approve Sino Haijing’s capital
injection. Warrant holders of Yong Tai have approved the issuance of up
to 220.05 million new Irredeemable Convertible Preference Shares (ICPS)
at an issue price of 80sen each which enable Sino Haijing Holdings
capital participation in Yong Tai. Under the agreement, Sino Haijing
would invest MYR280m in Yong Tai via the subscription of new shares, with
Sino Haijing’s subsidiary, Impression Culture subscribing for Yong Tai’s
special issue of 150 million new shares amounting to MYR120m. Yong Tai
will undertake a bonus issue of up to 20.05 million new ICPS, on the
basis of one new ICPS for every 10 Yong Tai shares held by the
shareholders. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)
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