Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Magnum Berhad | Strike your own lottery






Magnum Berhad | Strike your own lottery
Samuel Yin Shao Yang







Berjaya Auto | The best ride you can have
Ivan Yap









alt=break v:shapes="_x0000_i1025">

alt=break v:shapes="_x0000_i1026">


COMPANY RESEARCH





Rating Change





Magnum Berhad (MAG MK)
by Samuel Yin Shao Yang





Share Price:
MYR2.24
Target Price:
MYR2.60
Recommendation:
Buy




Strike your own lottery

MAG’s share price has performed poorly YTD, falling below our TP. While the 1Q16 net profit fell 24% YoY, it was within our expectations as it reflected normalized prize payout ratios. Our observations also indicate that gaming sales are beginning to stabilise after six years of contractions. We trim our EPS estimates by 5-6% and our DCF-based TP by 4% to MYR2.60. With 16% upside potential coupled with 7.1% net dividend yield, we upgrade MAG to BUY from HOLD.



FYE Dec (MYR m)
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
Revenue
2,886.5
2,767.0
2,765.0
2,758.4
EBITDA
416.1
373.9
387.2
391.6
Core net profit
254.8
226.5
249.5
258.5
Core EPS (sen)
17.9
15.9
17.5
18.2
Core EPS growth (%)
(21.9)
(10.9)
10.2
3.6
Net DPS (sen)
20.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
Core P/E (x)
12.5
14.1
12.8
12.3
P/BV (x)
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Net dividend yield (%)
8.9
7.1
7.1
7.1
ROAE (%)
10.4
9.3
10.3
10.5
ROAA (%)
6.9
6.2
6.9
7.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.7
11.4
9.9
9.7
Net debt/equity (%)
21.6
26.1
25.0
23.4


Samuel Yin Shao Yang








Results Review





Berjaya Auto (BAUTO MK)
by Ivan Yap





Share Price:
MYR2.32
Target Price:
MYR2.50
Recommendation:
Buy




The best ride you can have

BAuto’s 4QFY4/16 core earnings beat expectations on better sales mix. Nonetheless, we trim FY17-18 earnings forecasts by 3%-6% on lower volume sales and unfavourable JPY/MYR forex. Our new TP is MYR2.50 (-4%), on unchanged 13x CY17 EPS (+0.5SD). With the current management taking over as the single largest shareholder under a SPV, we see upside in dividends; thus raise our DPR assumption to 70% from 50% resulting in ~5% yield for FY17. Maintain BUY.



FYE Apr (MYR m)
FY15A
FY16A
FY17E
FY18E
Revenue
1,830.4
2,112.2
2,471.0
2,578.7
EBITDA
290.1
267.7
262.3
331.8
Core net profit
222.9
201.8
186.9
236.9
Core EPS (sen)
19.5
17.6
16.3
20.7
Core EPS growth (%)
58.0
(10.0)
(7.4)
26.8
Net DPS (sen)
12.1
16.9
11.4
14.5
Core P/E (x)
11.9
13.2
14.2
11.2
P/BV (x)
5.6
5.0
4.5
4.0
Net dividend yield (%)
5.2
7.3
4.9
6.2
ROAE (%)
54.5
40.1
33.4
38.0
ROAA (%)
32.9
23.9
19.3
23.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.4
8.2
9.1
7.1
Net debt/equity (%)
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash








MACRO RESEARCH






Corporate Day
by Chew Hann Wong


Brexit: Assessing the impact on Malaysian PLCs





Global markets are increasingly jittery ahead of the Brexit referendum on 23 Jun after recent polls suggest that the odds are tilting towards a ‘leave’, rather than a ‘remain’ outcome. Malaysian PLCs’ exposure to the UK is largely via investments in property developments, regulated assets and casino operations. A potentially slower UK economy (or even a recession) and a weaker GBP resulting from a Brexit will be negative. Nonetheless, the impact on Malaysian PLCs is limited to just a few.












Technical Research
by Lee Cheng Hooi


Sentiment remains fragile





The FBMKLCI fell by 3.66 points to close at 1,626.11 yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 declined 17.00 and 15.40 points respectively. In terms of market breadth, the gainer-to-loser ratio was 278-to-486 while 367 counters were unchanged. A total of 1.47b shares were traded valued at MYR1.62b.







NEWS


Outside Malaysia:

U.S: Retail sales in May rise more than forecast as consumers spend. The 0.5% increase in purchases followed a 1.3% jump the previous month that was the biggest gain in a year, Commerce Department figures showed. Excluding purchases of autos and gasoline, sales climbed 0.3%. (Source: Bloomberg)

Brazil: Retail sales climb in April as consumer confidence rises and economists forecast Latin America’s largest economy may emerge from recession quicker than initially thought. Sales rose 0.5% in April after a 0.9% drop the prior month, the national statistics agency said. Sales plunged 6.7% YoY in April versus the same month in 2015. (Source: Bloomberg)

U.K: BOE loans banks USD 3.5b in EU referendum liquidity push. Banks took GBP 2.46b (USD 3.5b) in the first of three extra liquidity operations the Bank of England is holding this month as it looks to shore up funding as the U.K. considers its future in the European Union. Governor Mark Carney is offering the cash -- in exchange for collateral -- as a precaution to help ensure the smooth functioning of sterling markets. The take up didn’t show a rush for liquidity in the week before the vote, with the total less than the average of GBP 2.95b allocated at the previous six regular indexed long-term repo operations. (Source: Bloomberg)

China: Yuan declines to five-year low as concern over outflows deepens. China’s yuan weakened to a five-year low, weighed down by signs of a slowing economy and concern that capital outflows may accelerate. The currency fell 0.19% to 6.5966 per dollar by the close on Tuesday in Shanghai, according to quotes from China Foreign Exchange Trading System. That’s the lowest for the yuan since February 2011 and extending its drop over the past month to 1%. The decline came before MSCI Inc. decided against including mainland shares in benchmark indexes. The offshore yuan weakened to as low as 6.6155 after the announcement, the lowest since February, before paring declines. (Source: Bloomberg)





Other News:

Construction: Consortium Zenith BUCG Sdn Bhd faces delay in Penang. The company, which is facing a delay in its MYR6.3b major roads and undersea tunnel project in Penang, served a legal notice on Monday against Parti Cinta Malaysia’s vice-president Datuk Huan Cheng Guan for defamation. Construction work for the three major roads has been delayed while the feasibility study for the undersea tunnel has been halted. The state government is to decide whether the undersea tunnel will be cancelled or replaced by a third bridge. To date, the consortium has spent close to MYR100m on the feasibility study and detailed design, for which it has not been paid yet. (Source: The Edge Financial Daily)

Felda Global Ventures: Calls off plan for biodegradable plastics production. The company will not proceed with its proposed plan to produce biodegradable plastics from palm oil biomass waste in Malaysia. The reason for the termination of the MoU announced last December is because the company were unable to reach acceptable agreement terms with other parties to the MoU, Newlight Technologies LLC and Innogas Technologies Sdn Bhd. (Source: The Star)

RHB Bank: Demands payment from MPCorp. The bank is demanding MYR118.16m from Malaysia Pacific Corp(MPCorp) in debt payment, along with interests and costs granted by the High Court on Apr 11. Persuant to Section 218(2)(a) of the Companies Act 1965, MPCorp shall be deemed unable to pay its debts if MPCorp fails to comply with the terms within 21 days and winding-up proceedings may thereafter be commenced against MPCorp. (Source: The Star)


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.