|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR13.40
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR15.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Higher
contributions from BOC
|
|
HL Bank’s 3QFY16 results were marginally below
expectations but positively, Bank of Chengdu’s earnings contributions
improved QoQ while the 10bps hike in HL Bank’s Base Rate should provide
some stability to NIMs. Asset quality is still superior to that of most
of its peers while capital positions are comfortable. We maintain a BUY
call on HL Bank with an unchanged TP of MYR15.00 (1.4x CY17 PBV, 10.3%
ROE).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,039.1
|
4,066.9
|
4,241.0
|
4,507.0
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
2,246.8
|
2,253.1
|
2,348.5
|
2,627.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
2,102.3
|
2,233.2
|
2,059.5
|
2,181.8
|
|
Core EPS (MYR)
|
1.23
|
1.31
|
1.08
|
1.05
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
12.8
|
5.9
|
(17.6)
|
(2.8)
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.41
|
0.41
|
0.34
|
0.35
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
10.9
|
10.3
|
12.5
|
12.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
2.5
|
2.6
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
7.73
|
8.93
|
9.53
|
9.97
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.3
|
14.3
|
11.0
|
10.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
1.3
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR14.92
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR17.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A weak quarter
|
|
3QFY16 was a weak quarter for the group, with YoY declines
in contribution from HL Bank and HL Capital, as well as a loss for HLA.
Correspondingly, our FY16/17/18 net profit forecasts have been cut by
7%/10%/10% respectively. That aside, however, we maintain our stance
that there is still much latent value in the group, anchored by a
strong retail bank and one of the largest life insurance companies in
Malaysia. BUY maintained with an unchanged RNAV-derived TP of MYR17.00.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Operating income
|
4,549.2
|
4,490.9
|
4,461.5
|
4,732.6
|
|
Pre-provision profit
|
2,583.1
|
2,490.7
|
2,170.1
|
2,615.8
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,706.9
|
1,576.2
|
1,466.1
|
1,449.9
|
|
Core FDEPS (MYR)
|
1.63
|
1.51
|
1.40
|
1.39
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
14.7
|
(7.7)
|
(7.0)
|
(1.1)
|
|
Net DPS (MYR)
|
0.38
|
0.38
|
0.29
|
0.29
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
9.1
|
9.9
|
10.6
|
10.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.4
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
|
Book value (MYR)
|
10.90
|
12.45
|
13.64
|
14.61
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.8
|
12.8
|
10.2
|
8.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR8.47
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR8.90
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Awaiting fresh
catalysts
|
|
1Q16 core net profit reached only 19% of our full-year
forecast but we expect doubtful debts to moderate, FFB output to pick
up and more visitor arrivals, boosting core net profit in the process.
Importantly, 1Q16 revenue was within our expectation. We acknowledge
that there are re-rating catalysts from Resorts World Las Vegas and
TauRX Pharmaceuticals but until either one materialises, we believe
current valuations are fair at 24% discount to our unchanged SOTP/sh
(post-1998 mean: -21%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
18,216.5
|
18,100.4
|
19,368.0
|
21,874.1
|
|
EBITDA
|
6,627.5
|
5,685.4
|
6,793.8
|
8,524.9
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,777.4
|
1,524.2
|
1,785.4
|
2,670.6
|
|
Core FDEPS (sen)
|
46.2
|
40.9
|
43.4
|
63.2
|
|
Core FDEPS growth(%)
|
1.5
|
(11.5)
|
6.1
|
45.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
4.0
|
3.5
|
3.7
|
5.4
|
|
Core FD P/E (x)
|
18.3
|
20.7
|
19.5
|
13.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
6.8
|
5.1
|
5.3
|
7.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
2.5
|
1.9
|
2.0
|
2.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.3
|
7.9
|
7.5
|
6.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR4.25
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.55
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Respectable
start to 2016
|
|
1Q16 results were largely in line. Admirably, Resorts
World Genting (RWG)’s gaming volumes were up YoY despite the weak
consumer sentiment in Malaysia. That said, valuations are fair at 15x
FY17 PER (post-1998 12M forward PER mean is 14x). RWG’s new amenities
at under the Genting Integrated Tourism Plan could be a 2H16 earnings
catalyst.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
8,229.4
|
8,395.9
|
9,677.2
|
11,087.6
|
|
EBITDA
|
2,247.6
|
2,153.5
|
2,768.9
|
3,173.1
|
|
Core net profit
|
1,358.1
|
1,256.4
|
1,390.7
|
1,599.3
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
23.9
|
22.2
|
24.5
|
28.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(20.8)
|
(7.4)
|
10.6
|
15.0
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
6.5
|
7.1
|
7.9
|
9.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
17.7
|
19.2
|
17.3
|
15.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
1.1
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.5
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
2.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
8.6
|
7.1
|
7.1
|
7.8
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
6.7
|
5.2
|
5.0
|
5.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.7
|
11.5
|
8.1
|
7.1
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
0.1
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR5.40
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR4.50
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Sell
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A drive downhill
|
|
1Q16 core net profit of just MYR17m met only 5% of our and
consensus initial full-year forecasts; expect major downgrades by
consensus. No dividends were declared. The outlook remains bleak for
two key divisions – auto (lack of new launches) and O&G (idle rigs).
We cut FY16/17/18 earnings forecasts by 70%/53%/47%. Correspondingly,
our SOP-based TP is lowered to MYR4.50 (-21%). Imminent exit from
FBMKLCI index poses further downside risk to share price; reiterate
SELL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
14,932.5
|
14,441.6
|
9,993.4
|
11,298.5
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,811.7
|
646.3
|
675.9
|
787.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
850.3
|
424.8
|
98.2
|
176.7
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
72.8
|
36.4
|
8.4
|
15.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
13.0
|
(50.0)
|
(76.9)
|
79.9
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
41.0
|
25.0
|
4.2
|
7.6
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
7.4
|
14.8
|
64.2
|
35.7
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
7.6
|
4.6
|
0.8
|
1.4
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
13.2
|
6.5
|
1.5
|
2.6
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
5.5
|
2.4
|
0.6
|
1.1
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.1
|
23.6
|
18.2
|
15.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
12.4
|
49.8
|
49.4
|
46.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.34
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.33
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bad results
priced in; U/G to HOLD
|
|
FGV’s 1Q16 results disappointed as the upstream and sugar
divisions underperformed. We believe these bad results have been priced
in with its stock price down 22% YTD. Newly appointed CEO has promised
cost reforms. Given limited downside to our TP, we upgrade FGV to HOLD
(from SELL) with an unchanged TP of MYR1.33 on 1x trailing P/NTA.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
16,434.3
|
15,669.7
|
15,737.5
|
16,369.9
|
|
EBITDA
|
1,293.9
|
957.4
|
990.7
|
1,194.2
|
|
Core net profit
|
95.7
|
(171.8)
|
141.4
|
252.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
2.6
|
(4.7)
|
3.9
|
6.9
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
545.6
|
nm
|
nm
|
78.3
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
10.0
|
4.0
|
2.3
|
4.1
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
51.1
|
(28.5)
|
34.6
|
19.4
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.7
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
7.5
|
3.0
|
1.7
|
3.1
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
1.5
|
(2.7)
|
2.2
|
3.8
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.5
|
(0.8)
|
0.7
|
1.2
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
9.0
|
12.4
|
10.9
|
9.4
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
18.8
|
47.8
|
50.2
|
53.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR6.71
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR6.50
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fairly valued
|
|
Sequentially weaker 1Q16 earnings was within expectations
and we think the results was commendable considering the industry-wide
ASP pressure and cost hikes. Going forward, we expect better earnings
as the ASP pressure has eased and USD/MYR is on an uptick again.
Maintain our earnings forecasts, HOLD call and TP of MYR6.50 (16x 2017
PER; mean) for Kossan currently trades at its historical mean PER of
16x.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,299.3
|
1,635.9
|
1,925.8
|
2,230.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
247.9
|
343.2
|
391.4
|
445.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
143.8
|
203.3
|
229.7
|
259.4
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
22.5
|
31.8
|
35.9
|
40.6
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
5.4
|
41.4
|
13.0
|
12.9
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
7.0
|
12.7
|
18.0
|
20.3
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
29.8
|
21.1
|
18.7
|
16.5
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
5.3
|
4.4
|
3.9
|
3.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.0
|
1.9
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
19.0
|
22.7
|
22.1
|
22.3
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
12.1
|
14.8
|
14.6
|
14.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
12.0
|
17.4
|
11.2
|
9.9
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
11.2
|
1.7
|
5.9
|
7.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.67
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.55
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Acquires asset
in Pasir Gudang
|
|
We are positive on AXRB’s latest proposed asset purchase
of an industrial property in Pasir Gudang, Johor. The acquisition is
yield accretive with an estimated 7.4% net property yield. We nudge up
FY16-18 net profit forecasts by 1-2%. However, we maintain our
DCF-based TP of MYR1.55 (WACC: 6.2%, terminal yield: 7%) due to
marginal earnings impact.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
140.0
|
165.7
|
173.4
|
184.6
|
|
Net property income
|
118.5
|
141.9
|
147.4
|
157.5
|
|
Distributable income
|
81.3
|
91.5
|
97.1
|
107.2
|
|
DPU (sen)
|
8.9
|
7.6
|
7.9
|
8.8
|
|
DPU growth (%)
|
6.8
|
(14.9)
|
5.1
|
10.4
|
|
Price/DPU(x)
|
18.8
|
22.1
|
21.0
|
19.0
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
1.4
|
|
DPU yield (%)
|
5.3
|
4.5
|
4.8
|
5.3
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
6.9
|
6.8
|
7.2
|
7.9
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
4.4
|
4.3
|
4.5
|
4.9
|
|
Debt/Assets (x)
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR2.39
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR2.38
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Q16: Below
expectations
|
|
1Q16 net profit was below expectations predominantly due
to lower print adex revenue owing to ongoing weakness in consumer
sentiment. Aside from a narrowing YoY pre-tax loss in the events
segment, all other segments underperformed. Maintain our earnings estimates,
HOLD call and SOP-based TP of MYR2.38 pending a briefing next Monday.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
1,013.7
|
1,019.0
|
995.3
|
1,037.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
242.3
|
206.2
|
205.7
|
212.0
|
|
Core net profit
|
151.5
|
131.9
|
126.3
|
134.0
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
20.5
|
17.9
|
17.1
|
18.2
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
4.8
|
(12.9)
|
(4.3)
|
6.1
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
11.6
|
13.4
|
14.0
|
13.2
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
7.5
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
13.1
|
11.5
|
11.0
|
11.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
9.0
|
7.8
|
7.6
|
8.5
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.7
|
6.9
|
7.2
|
7.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
Samuel Yin Shao
Yang
|
|
|
|
Jade Tam
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.40
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.35
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1Q16 above,
raise TP
|
|
1Q16 core net profit of MYR74.3m was firmly above ours and
market expectations on steady yields and good cost control. 1Q and 4Q
are AAX’s seasonally stronger quarters whilst 2Q-3Q have historically
been loss making. We raise our FY16-18 earnings forecasts by +111%,
+52% and +60% respectively on the better operating environment and
revisions on our fuel price and USD/MYR FX assumptions. Maintain HOLD,
with a higher TP of MYR0.355 as we switch our valuation metric to 8x
2017 PER (from 1x P/BV).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,939.1
|
3,062.6
|
4,103.7
|
5,121.0
|
|
EBITDAR
|
303.6
|
788.1
|
1,286.9
|
1,574.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
(394.8)
|
(234.9)
|
155.7
|
205.1
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
(16.7)
|
(6.9)
|
3.8
|
4.9
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
nm
|
nm
|
nm
|
31.8
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
(2.4)
|
(5.8)
|
10.7
|
8.1
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.2
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
1.5
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
(36.6)
|
(32.9)
|
20.6
|
20.7
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
(10.1)
|
(6.1)
|
3.4
|
3.5
|
|
EV/EBITDAR (x)
|
8.8
|
2.2
|
2.4
|
2.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
180.8
|
179.7
|
155.9
|
201.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.03
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.00
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reprieve from
dumping
|
|
The sequentially better 1Q16 results were within
expectations and we expect stronger near-term earnings on the ASP hikes
in Apr-May 2016. Separately, AJR has proposed a renounceable rights
issue of RCPS which may see its share base increase/EPS dilute by 25%
over the next 8 years. Maintain our earnings forecasts, HOLD call but
raise our TP to MYR1.00 (from MYR0.68) as we raise our P/B target to
0.6x (mean; from 0.4x).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
2,291.9
|
1,760.9
|
1,720.0
|
1,745.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
127.0
|
70.7
|
119.0
|
119.7
|
|
Core net profit
|
23.3
|
(135.5)
|
22.4
|
23.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
4.5
|
(25.9)
|
4.3
|
4.4
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
90.2
|
nm
|
nm
|
3.4
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
23.1
|
(4.0)
|
24.0
|
23.2
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
2.2
|
(13.6)
|
2.4
|
2.4
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
0.8
|
(5.2)
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
15.0
|
22.5
|
14.2
|
13.7
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
126.2
|
133.6
|
121.3
|
113.2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.08
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.07
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Lack near-term
catalyst
|
|
Though 3QFY6/16 results was stronger YoY/QoQ, it was still
below our expectation. 4QFY6/16 should be weaker sequentially in the
absence of lumpy property earnings. While HLG’s long-term prospects
remain bright on the logistics requirement for Baleh dam, it may only
benefit meaningfully in FY6/18. We cut our FY6/16-18 EPS by 16%/6%/3%
and downgrade HLG to HOLD with a lower SOP-based TP of MYR1.07.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
457.6
|
507.0
|
571.4
|
598.3
|
|
EBITDA
|
75.3
|
97.4
|
116.8
|
114.3
|
|
Core net profit
|
33.4
|
48.2
|
49.5
|
52.0
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
8.3
|
12.0
|
12.4
|
13.0
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
9.0
|
44.2
|
2.7
|
5.2
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
1.1
|
2.5
|
2.5
|
2.6
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
12.9
|
9.0
|
8.7
|
8.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
1.9
|
1.5
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
1.1
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
2.4
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
15.5
|
18.9
|
17.1
|
16.2
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
7.2
|
9.0
|
8.3
|
8.3
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
5.3
|
5.1
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
16.1
|
net cash
|
5.2
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR0.35
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR0.11
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Sell
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sees red in 1Q16
|
|
1Q16 core earnings were below expectations, largely on
lower OSV utilization, prompting us to: (i) cut 2016-18 earnings
forecasts by 29%-94% and (ii) lower our TP to MYR0.11 (-63%), based on
unchanged 10x 2017 PER. The OSV market continues to be tough with
limited visibility and lacking in immediate catalyst. Operationally,
optimising OSV utilisation over DCRs remains key in 2016. Valuations
are expensive vis-a-vis its peers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Dec (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
391.6
|
350.2
|
226.7
|
256.0
|
|
EBITDA
|
81.5
|
71.9
|
47.4
|
54.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
56.2
|
63.1
|
1.2
|
9.9
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
6.4
|
6.8
|
0.1
|
1.1
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
(24.7)
|
5.9
|
(98.1)
|
721.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
5.5
|
5.2
|
273.7
|
33.3
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
7.8
|
7.4
|
0.1
|
1.1
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
3.9
|
4.9
|
0.1
|
0.8
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
7.7
|
6.5
|
7.2
|
5.8
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
9.1
|
8.2
|
1.2
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Share
Price:
|
MYR1.58
|
|
Target
Price:
|
MYR1.75
|
|
Recommendation:
|
Buy
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Below
expectation
|
|
While a weaker 3QFY6/16 was not unexpected, the quantum of
the shortfall was a negative surprise. We cut our FY16/17/18 net profit
forecasts by 23%/8%/8% to account for weaker orders especially from the
OEM division (refer to table overleaf), dragged by softer demand for
Toyota and Proton. Correspondingly, our TP is lowered to MYR1.75 (-8%)
based on unchanged 13x CY17 EPS. 4QFY6/16 earnings should be better on
the back of new launches by Toyota and Perodua. Maintain BUY.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FYE Jun (MYR m)
|
FY14A
|
FY15A
|
FY16E
|
FY17E
|
|
Revenue
|
99.5
|
129.5
|
125.9
|
147.8
|
|
EBITDA
|
22.6
|
27.8
|
24.8
|
33.4
|
|
Core net profit
|
14.5
|
17.9
|
15.5
|
23.2
|
|
Core EPS (sen)
|
7.7
|
9.5
|
8.3
|
12.3
|
|
Core EPS growth (%)
|
37.4
|
23.9
|
(13.5)
|
49.5
|
|
Net DPS (sen)
|
5.1
|
4.4
|
4.1
|
6.2
|
|
Core P/E (x)
|
20.5
|
16.6
|
19.1
|
12.8
|
|
P/BV (x)
|
4.9
|
4.3
|
2.1
|
1.9
|
|
Net dividend yield (%)
|
3.3
|
2.8
|
2.6
|
3.9
|
|
ROAE (%)
|
25.1
|
27.6
|
14.6
|
15.5
|
|
ROAA (%)
|
16.3
|
17.5
|
11.4
|
13.6
|
|
EV/EBITDA (x)
|
na
|
na
|
8.7
|
6.5
|
|
Net debt/equity (%)
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
net cash
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MACRO RESEARCH
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Technical Research
by Lee
Cheng Hooi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A weaker local
tone may emerge
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The FBMKLCI fell by 9.05 points to close at 1,625.84
yesterday, while the FBMEMAS and FBM100 declined 56.87 and 59.69
points respectively. In terms of market breadth, the gainer-to-loser
ratio was 334-to-450, while 380 counters were unchanged. A total of 1.73b
shares were traded valued at MYR1.79b.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEWS
|
|
|
Outside Malaysia:
U.S: April new-home sales surge to highest level in eight
years. Sales rose 16.6% to 619,000 annualized rate. Monthly increase was
biggest since 1992, while pace was strongest since January 2008. Median
selling price jumped 9.7% to a record USD 321,100. Number of homes sold
but not yet under construction climbed to 209,000, the highest since May
2007. (Source: Bloomberg)
U.S: Households’ mortgage debt rises to four-year high,
Fed says. Increased mortgage borrowing was behind a 1.1% rise in U.S.
household debt in the first quarter, with slowdowns in other areas such
as credit-card balances and auto loans, according to the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York. Total mortgage debt rose 1.5% from the final quarter of
2015 to USD 8.37tr, marking the highest level since the third quarter of
2011, according to the New York Fed’s quarterly report on household debt
and credit. Auto-loan debt rose to a record high of USD 1.07tr in data
going back to 2003, but logged the smallest percentage increase since
2012. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: Investor confidence dropped for the first time in
three months in a sign that growth momentum is set to slow after the
economy expanded at its strongest pace in two years. The ZEW Center for
European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and
analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six
months ahead, fell to 6.4 from 11.2 in April, reflecting concerns over a
U.K. exit from the European Union. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: A surge in investment propelled economic growth
to its fastest pace in two years in the first quarter as mild winter
weather encouraged construction. Building activity jumped 2.3% at the
start of the year, driving up capital investment by 1.8%, the Federal
Statistics Office said. Private consumption rose 0.4%. GDP increased a
seasonally-adjusted 0.7% in the January-March period. (Source: Bloomberg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other News:
IGB Corp: Confirms getting offer for Renaissance KL. IGB
Corp announced yesterday that it had received an offer for its 20
year-old, 910 room Renaissance Kuala Lumpur hotel, and is in the midst of
evaluating the offer. However, no other details were announced as the
company was still studying the offer. Should the deal materialize, the
company could utilize proceeds to build Southkey (Mid Valley Southkey
Megamall, Johor), a retail mall project developed under a 70:30 joint
venture between IGM Corp and Johor-based Selia Pantai Sdn Bhd. (Source:
The Edge Financial Daily)
KUB Malaysia: Open to selling more non-core assets. KUB
Malaysia could divest more of its non-core assets if they do not perform
positively within the year. Its non-core businesses include property,
construction and food businesses. As a part of KUB’s restructuring plan,
the group disposed A&W Restaurant (Thailand) Co Ltd and KUB Builders
Sdn Bhd, resulting in a one-off disposal gain of MYR19.5m. This will see
better earnings from its three core businesses, namely plantations,
energy and ICT, which contributed 70% to the group’s earnings in 2015.
(Source: The Sun Daily)
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